PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2724, 20 March 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

The Germans have fared even worse in tho third phase of the Battle of Verdun than in its earlier stages. At the end of last week we were told that on Thursday the .enemy launched a series of heavy attacks against Dead Man's Hill (west of tho Mouse), which were completely and decisively repelled. It is now added that 'on Friday ho made desperate hut equally unsuccessful efforts to master tnc village and fort of Vaux, which are situated south-east of Douaumont, in the area- east of the river. The five great assaults which were launched against the Vaux sector did not gain the enemy a foot of ground, and thoy were broken by artillery and machine-gun fire, so that the losses of the enemy must have been overwhelmingly greater than those of the French. As reports go, Thursday and Friday were for the Germans days of unrelieved disaster. The attacks west and east of the Mouse in which such a great and unavailing price was paid overshadow other events, but it is noteworthy that while the Germans were doing their utmost to break into the French defences at Vaux, or at all events on the same day, the French were subjecting the enemy positions on the other side of the river to a concentrated bombardment, to which the enemy did not reply. This is a striking indication that the defence is bearing easily the strain of the enemy assaults, and holds a great deal in reserve. Direct evidence to the same effect is, of course, supplied m the fate of the German attacks. For the time bciqg. the impression is uppermost that the ' Germans must have hopelessly under-estimated the magnitude and difficulty of tho task they have set themselves to accomplish.

No very rosy view of' Allied prospects in the Western theatre this Slimmer seems to be taken 'bv Me. Harey Gullett, who has lately returned to Australia from France, where he acted as Australian official correspondent at British Headquarters. In a cablegram to-dav he is quoted as saying that if he had thought for a moment that the German Western front would- have been broken by the Allies this summer he would have remained to see the "job through. _ Possibly, Mr. Gullett's meaning is not accurately conveyed. At all events, an article attributed to him which was reprinted locally the other day contains the statement: "Now/having caught, I hope, the feeling of thoughtful men both with tho French and British armies, 1 believe that this 'year the German lines will bi pierced, and the war either ended in our favour or its issue placed beyond doubt."

In an,,' case, it is a matter only of one man's opinion being at stake, though tLat one a man who has had a more or less extensive practical experience upon which to base his opmien. The immediate question is no lonfor whether the Allies can break the German front, but how far the Germans are prepared to go in developing the offensive with which, as far as it has gone, they have so little cause to bo satisfied. That they will continue indefinitely to squander lhvs in vain attempts to pierce an impenetrable Allied defence seems almost too much to hope for, but that they have already risked «o much and fared so ill in the attempt to force a decision seems to warrant a doubt as to whether they are capable of offering such a formidable resistance in a defensive war as has generally been supposed. V * * * *

The Budapest correspondent of the Morniiu/ l'ost is exceptionally well-informed, and on that account more than ordinary interest attaches to the particulars he gives of the current Austrq-Hungarian mobilisation. As regards the ages of the men mobilised, however, his statement is at variance with most of the evidence on the subject, and a discrepancy appears which is possibly acrounted for by a mistake in cabling. As he sets out the position, a total strength of 4.000,000 men has been reached by mobilising men up to 45 years of age, |his including 2,400,000 men on the fighting fronts and 1,600,000 in training. There is every reason to hlieve that the mobilisation has not been confined to men up to 45 years of age. Many reports have spoken of older men being called up. Particulars supplied by the French War Office early this year agree with the statement of the Morning Post correspondent as to the total strength of AustroHungarian available reserves, but indicate that the total includes 750,000 men between the ages of 43 and 55. The matter is of great importance, since most men up to 45 years of_ age are well able to stand the strain of service in the field, wtiereas the utilisation of men over that age.would be apt to prove in the main a source rather of weakness than of strength. *** . *

Though the Turks who made it wore accompanied by three Gorman officers, the raiding attack on an outpost, ten miles from Aden, may probably be set down as of minor importance. With the length and breadth of Arabia behind it, Aden is not to be approached by land by any strong forces organised on modern lines. That- German officers 'are present in the region perhaps implies that efforts are being made to raise the Arab tribes, but judging by the decisive fashion in -which the late raid was repelled, these efforts have so far achieved a poor measuro of success. Possibly the presence of German officers is a part of tho design to keep alive the idea of a pending attack on Egypt, with the object of detaining British troops Lherc for the defence of the Suez Canal.

An Athens report states that Gorman troops from Russia have arrived on the Greek frontier, and are commencing serious military operations, but this hardly warrants a belief that the dormant, and apparently dead/project of attacking the AUics at Salonika is to be revived. There is also a story from Salonika which seems to deserve no move attention than the Athens item. It is to the effect that the members of the Turkish Government" met recently and discussed terms on which Turkey would be prepared to cooperate with the Entente against Bulgaria. Messages of this kind throw no real light upon events and developments in the Near East. Evidently a rigorous censorship is being maintained, a state of affairs amply accounted for by the preparations the Allies are no doubt making for offensive action. Tho only military event definitely reported at ■

time of writing is the Russian bombardment of Varna. This will serve a useful purpose in compelling the Bnlgars to keep their coast well guarded, even if nothing in the way of a landing is . attempted. Incidentally the bombardment affords satisfactory proof that (he Russian warships are not being seriously impeded or hampered in their operations by enemy submarines.

Correspondents as far apart as the representative of the Morning' I'ost at Washington and the representative of the Daily Telegraph at Rome suggest to-day that Admiral von Tirpitz was compelled to resign because he was willing to risk war with America over the submarine campaign, while the German Government was not. The Daily Telegraph correspondent says, indeed, that the Admiral became mad and advocated the sinking of every ship on the high seas, whether belligerent or neutral, but the essential point of difference between the Admiral and his Government remains the same. The explanation thus offered looks probable enough. Assuming that the resignation of Admiral von Tirpitz is most likely due to a disagreement with his colleagues over the submarine campaign, it of course follows that the resignation docs not necessarily imply any change of policy in regard to the High Seas Fleet.

The mystery surrounding the sinking of the Dutch liner Tubantia is deepened by the news that another Dutch ship has been torpedoed. The latest victim is the Palembang, owned in Rotterdam, and outward bound from that port to Java, via London. At the moment the statement that the Palembang was torpedoed stands unchallenged. There are definite statements also that the Tubantia met her fate in the same way. Mr. Schilling, American Consul at Stuttgart, was a passenger, and he is of opinion that the Tubantia .was mined. Apparently, however, he rests this belief upon the general consideration that "it was impossible to see why the Germans should torpedo a Dutch ship," and unless he is in possession of, more tangible evidence his opinion counts for little against the sworn statements of the officers of the ship and the look-out man, that she was torpedoed. Without accepting Mr. Schilling's opinion, it is. possible to share his perplexity. While what is known of the circumstances surrounding the resignation of Admiral von Tibpitz suggests that the German Government has perforce decided to tone" down the worst features of its submarine campaign, wo are faced by the fact that two ships belonging to an unoffending neutral Power nave been sunk in an apparently wanton and irresponsible fashion. There is no reason to suppose that Germany is in any way better off for the sinking of the Tuiiantia and tho Palembang, but it is highly probable that she has brought a hornet's nest about her oars. In Holland tho belief is evidently general that the Tubantia, was torpedoed, and naturally enough it is regarded seriously. The newspapers are urging that the Dutch Government should support America in its efforts to make Germany pay more regard to the rights of neutrals. Belying as she does to an extent upon trade with Holland, this is hardly a state of affairs Germany can wish to see created, hut the indignation aroused in Holland by the sinking of the Tubantia will doubtless be magnified and anti-Ger-man sentiment intensified by the news that another Dutch ship has shared the same fate. Had more ships been sunk it might almost have been supposed that Admiral von Tirpitz had succeeded in launching his alleged 1 scheme for the indiscriminate destruction of belligerent and neutral shipping before he was' compelled to retire from office. As to is, the way in which Dutch ships h*ve been singled out constitutes an unexplained mystery.