PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2723, 18 March 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Apparently independent reports I that Admiral von Tirfitz has resigned the office of German Naval, Minister have come from Washington and Copenhagen, and now from Amsterdam and Stockholm. Possibly, of course, it may be merely a case of circulating rumour. . Tliat 'the reports are in nart speculative is certain, since they give more or less contradictory accounts of the causes leading up to the resignation. According to the Washington rumour, Admiral von Tiiu'ltz resigned in consequence of disagreements \vith_ the German Government, and particularly the Imperial Chancellor. The same explanation is' transmitted from Stockholm. The Copenhagen message attributed the resignation to the Kaiser and Prince, Henry being dissatisfied with the fleet's inactivity; and mentioned other reports that a modification of the submarine warfare, with which the name of Admiral von Tirpitz is linked, is contemplated. The very different story now comes from Amsterdam that the Kaiser has reluctantly accented the resignation, which is due to the Admiral suffering from overwork and anxiety, aggravated by the failure of his plans and advancing years. That correspondents are casting about in this fashion for thejeasons underlying the resignation does not necessarily mean that it has' not occurred, but it leaves the matter somewhat in doubt. A definite German announcement on the subject is hardly to be expected, but if it is true that the Kaiser intends to bestow a high honour upon the retiring Minister, the explanation presumably is that it is considered impossible to keep the resignation secret.

The .retirement of Admiral von Tirpitz would be chiefly of interest and importance as indicating that Germany meditates some radical departure in; naval policy. Seasons are not altogether lacking for anticipating such a development. In the first place the increasing perplexities of Germany on land, indicated in her desperate attempt to force the issue at Verdun, make it less unlikely than it has been that the High Seas Fleet may be risked, or even sacrificcd, in a forlorn-hope sortie. The Baltic should represent meantime a more attractive field for naval enterprise than thc_ North Sea, but acute developments" in'the land war might induce Germany to face the greater risks 'of action in the Norfli Sea in the hope of weakening England.

A change in German naval policy, however,'.would not necessarily involve an ear?/ departure from the policy which .has kept the High Seas Fleet out of" harm's way ever since the battle of the Dogger Bank. Nothing more may be immediately involved, as some of the reports suggest, than a modification of the submarine campaign, and this might very well lead to the resignation of Admiral von Tirpitz, by whom the campaign was inaugurated. To date the history of the submarine campaign has been one_ of failure. A large number of. British, Allied, and neutral vhips have been sunk, but the underwater craft have never come within distance of exerting any decisive influence in the war, while a considerable proportion of them have.been captured or sent to the bottom. With this unsatisfactory record to look back upon, the Germans are evidently somewhat at a loss for ways and means of making more effective use of their underwater craft. Some weeks ago it was announced with a flourish of trumpets—recalling the days of a little over a year ago, when the pirate war took definite shape—that increased _■ frightfulness would be imported into the campaign, particularly in the way of sinking liners armed for defence, but, though a few ships have since been'torpedoed, the promise has not been kept. The most plausible explanation available at 'the moment is that 1 Germany has been, discomfited and checked by the one strong move made by President Wilson sincc he became involved in controversy with Germany in regard to the observance of international law at sea. Evidently, the Kaiser's Government hoped to delude the United States into withdrawing countenance and protection from American citizens who might travel -in Allied liners armed for defence. For a time it seemed that . these hopes would be realised, but they were instead shattered by President AVilson's firm assertion _ of American rights and the backing he received from Congress. ? # * *

On present indications America's unexpected firmness headed Germany off as she was about to employ her submarines in activities which she hoped would result in much more serious damage to the Allies_ than she has thus far been able to inflict. It is not impossible that Admiral von Tijipitz desired to go ahead in spite of the United States, and that the German Government, fearing war with America, has declined to endorse such a policy. The retirement of Admiral von Tirpitz would, of course, open new possibilities where the High Seas Fleet is concerned, but its immediate significance would be as indicating that Germany has lost faith and nope in the submarine campaign, from which the Naval Minister taught her • to expect so much. # » * *

Something of mystery attaches to the sinking of the Dutch liner Tubantia in the southern part of the North Sea. The weight of evidence at the moment is that she was , torpedoed, which would almost necessarily fasten responsibility upon a German submarine.. The Tubantia met Her fate at 2.30 a.m., and therefore in the hours of darkness. It is stated that the night was very dark. An Allied ship in these circumstances could hardly have been torpedoed, as she would have shown no_ lights, but the Dutch ship was quite possibly fully lighted, and so would present a practicable target, particularly to a submarine operating on the surface. The puzzling tiling is to assign a motive. The Tubantia was outward bound to Buenos Aires,, and it cannot have been in any way in Germany's interest to sink her. If she was deliberately sunk _ it was a case of gratuitously inviting trouble with Holland, and also possibly with America. There is already a report from Washington that the torpedoing of the Dutch liner is likely to cause further complications with Germany. But'since the American; Government would certainly not act before obtaining definite "information, this counts for little in the meantime. There is such an entire absence of any intelligible motive likely to induce the Germans to torpedo tl)e ship that in apite of the evidence to the contrau it still

seems possible that she may Have struck a mine. It is stated. that the look-out saw the torpedo approaching.

Good news is given of the Verdun battle, now in its third active phase. Renewed _ German attacks on Dead Man's Hill, west of the Meuse, have been repelled with slaughter. East of the river, in the Douaumont area, the French are raining shells upon the ground in which the enemy is entrenching. Reports in hand, though brief, leave it in no doubt that the enemy fared even worse in his latest assaults than in earlier attempts to penetrate the French defences.

Further testimony to the serious internal state of Germany is given by the New South Wales Agent-Gen-eral (Mn. B. R. Wise), who has returned to London from a visit to Holland. Mr. Wise i,s able to report that accounts of food shortage, riots, and shootings of the population are _ correct, and that a strong opinion is held in Holland that conditions of life in Germany are rapidly growing worse. Reasonably reliable evidence is' thus afforded that the British blockade is by no means so ineffective'as some critics have averred. It is true that Mr. Wise found pro-German Hollanders of opinion that the war would result only in stalemate, but this is a theory which is rapidly losing any plausibility it ever possessed. It never rested upon any firm foundation in application to a war in which, as Lord Kitchener said long ago, one party must increase while the other must decrease. The German offensive in the Western theatre suggests very strongly that the stalemate theory is absolutely unsound, and if they continue to expend themsolves in. efforts to force a decision, the suggestion will, of course, be converted into positive proof.