PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2721, 16 March 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

A continued lull at Verdun bears tesfeiony to the thoroughness with which the last German assaults were stopped. The enemy remains practically everywhere on the ground from which these assaults . were launched, but poorer by a vast number of men killed and wounded. It is a state of affairs with which the French have some reason to be satisfied as they await a renewal of the conflict. I'his, by common consent, is not likely to be long deferred. Meantime, more than ordinary interest attaches to reports, meagre as they, are, which bear upon German preparations. The most notable item in this category is a message describing another great sweep of the recruiting net in the German agricultural districts.' As it read-i, it suggests that the'haul is likely to be considerable, and that many mon may be made available by annulling previous exemptions and by substituting prisoners of war _ for native labourers. . Very possibly, however, the impression tlius conveyed is exaggerated in a degree much beyond what the facts warrant. Tho rural areas of Prussia and the other German States are certainly very far from being virgin ground to the recruiting authorities, and resort to the enforced labour of war prisone'ra is no novelty but a long-standing feature, of German policy. As more prisoners are captured more rural workers will be made available fot war service, but the process of substitution is subject to obvious limitations. The labour of prisoners of war, like that of less worthy prisoners, is bound to be much less efficient than that of native workers, and to need more supervision, and in addition they have to be guarded and fed. On the whole, there is no reason to suppose that the Germans are tapping a large unexhausted reserve of abje-bodied men. It is more likely that their present activities arc in the nature of gathering in-tho odds and ends dispensed with in previoui levies,

Whatever her exact position may be in' regard to reserves of men, it is tolerably certain that Germany is ma-king ready to resume, her desperate efforts to win a favourable decision on the Western • front. Though it may sound somewhat paradoxical, the German offensive, with its huge' waste and sacrifice of men, is the most definite indioation yet afforded that Germany is beginning to seriously feel the drain upon bcr manpower. Attacking Verdun, she is certainly not fighting at advantage, and' the only feasible explanation of her action seems to be that she is anxious at all costs to shorten the war. There is no evidence that she is yet in straits for material supplies—on the contrary, the weight of evidence is that in _ spite of tho blockade she is relying more and more upon mechanical aids as time goes-on —and the alternative is to suppose that she fears the prospect of coping with the masses of men whom the Allies will bring to bear in all theatres with tho return of good weather. * # * e

Enemy predictions aro always to be received with doubt, but tbe Fossische 'Aeitung is quito possibly sincere in 'predicting an extension and expansion of the Western offensive, upon which an important decision, and perhaps the final decision of tho war, will depend. Verdun, according to tho' German newspaper, _is only one piece on the board, a striking metaphor as indicating the intended scale of the enemy operations. There is tho less reason' to .discount the implied suggestion that the Germans will _ extend and develop their offensive with all the power at their command, since circumstances seem to debar them from any other course. They have staked heavily upon this effort, even by tho mammoth standards of the war, and thus far it has been a losing game for them, but the inevitable- moral effect of an abandonment of the offensive seems to make it_ inconceivable while any alternative exists. The prospect opened is rot one to be- regarded with careless confidenceor indifference, but at tho same time it'is an immensely better prospect than was before the Allies when the opinion obtained that the Germans would stand on the defensive in their fortified lines. Much that has been said by well-informed correspondents about tho terrible difficulty of breaking the German front must now be considered in reverse, for tho Allied front is certainly not less formidably defended than that of the enemy.

There is another rumour to-day which raises unnleasant possibilities. It is to the effect that five large German submarines have entered, or are about to enter, the Dardanelles' for service in the Black Sea. The Russians have already had to cope with enemy submarines, but such an accession to the strength of the underwater flotilla, might enable the enemy to seriously hamper' the sea transport in which _ the Russians arc placing increasing reliance in the development of their Armenian campaign. l * » » *

According to a. Bucharest message the Prime Minister of Bulgaria told a group of Deputies that he believed Bulgarian • politicians would not hesitate to desert Germany if the attack on Verdun failed. It is,, perhaps, unlikely that M. Radoslavoh made such ojjen confession of his readmci# to pile one treason on another, more especially as such a

course offers no very hopeful" prospcct of advantage, but the suggestion that Bulgaria may yet turn against her present allies is not made to-day by any means for the first time. German-Bulgarian relations were interestingly discussed in 'January last by the particularly well-informed Budapest correspondent of the London Mornuuj Post. Bulgaria, he_ stated, had declined to participate in ah offensive against Salonika unless that port was promised and guaranteed to her after the expulsion of the Allies from Greek territory. It was protracted discussion on this subject, he added, which had made it impossible up to that time to set the Salonika offensive in motion, and the same cause had awakened very bitter feeling in Austro-Geruiai, and Bulgarian diplomatic circles. Later, Bulgaria apparently withdrew the claim* to Salonika, but still _ declined to act as her allies - wished her to, save on condition that Greece should cuter into a definite agreement with the Central Empires—an imppssib'o condition so far as events up to the present have indicated. "In any ease," the correspondent goes on to remark,- "one gains the impression that there is a dilemma as regards the Balkan situation from the point of view of the Central Powers, and that shortly they will have to experience the same treacherous treatment on the part of Bulgaria as tho Entente Powers_ had to experience when Bulgaria joined arms against Serbia." He' added that King Ferdinand, having achieved his purpose. so far as New Serbia was concerned, at a comparatively small price, was now preparing to use his almost intact army in order to wring more concessions out of his Allies.

It has never' been easy to understand why the enemy abstained from attacking the Allies at Salonika while they were still comparatively weak, and the explanation offered by the correspondent quoted is plausible. If Bulgaria has already lo an extent sacrificed 'her Allies, the fact, of course, has a bearing upon the.existing situation. At the same time it is not to be supposed that Bulgaria is in a position to secure herself by betraying her present partners as she formerly betrayed Serbia. She is riot likely to willingly relinquish her present conquests, and has no hope otherwise of. making peace with the Entente. At the moment she is faced by the prospect of repeating on a larger scale her experience in the second Balkan War, when her greed and treachery were punished by the seizure of territory of which she would in other circumstances have been left in undisturbed possession. The intervention of Rumania would convert the prospect into a practical certainty. **( * * Some reports concerning Turkey -\yhich appear to-day, though forwarded by British correspondents, are 1 ' of' rather uncertain origin, and therefore of doubtful reliability. As they go they. indicate that the Sick Man .of Europe is staggering under a load of troubles which grows constantly heavier. One of the most interesting suggestions made is that ■ the' Turks are hampered in coping with the Russian advance in Armenia, not only by inferior communication, but by the necessity of retaining troops in Europe to provide against the, danger of a Bulgarian attack. That tears of this character are entertained, and with some justification, is not inherently improbable, Since she is bound to relinquish her present conquests if sho decides to submit. to the Allies it is possible that Bulgaria is turning eyes of desire to tho south. That she would cheerfully attack her failing ally if she saw prospect of advantage in doing so goes without question. Rumours of this kind, however, must be considered distinctly apart from authenticated and reliable news.

Late news shows that there has been a recrudescence of fighting on tho Verdun, front,_ though as yet apparently on a limited scale. One powerful attack by the enemy is reported in the area west of the Mouse. It was repulsed with heavy loss, but a-footing was gained at two points in. the French trenches. Unsuccessful German attacks are also reported -north of the Aisne.

Following up their bombardment of the Isonzo front, thd Italians are developing infantry on its southern section. The Austrians declare that all the attacks were repelled, but the Italians officially report the capture of a strong enemy redoubt.

.Suggestions that trouble is likely to arise in.Great Britain owing to. married men protesting _against being called up before single men in reserved trades seem to be met and disposed of by the War Office measures described in a later message. These measures will release for service the majority of single men employed in exempted industries, female labour being substituted as far as possible. From some luxury trades the 'exemption is being withdrawn altogether. Iu this way v a very. large number of. recruits _ will be made available directly, and'also by meeting the objections of the married men who have jirotcsted against being called up while unencumbered men are still available. ■ The ImperGovernment in this matter, and in its solution of the pr&blem of the conscientious objector, seems to have done a good deal to' undercut critics who condemned the Military Service Bill as a timorous measuro, leaving so many loopholes as to be almost useless. In deciding to organise conscientious objectors for the "relief of combatants," the Government will- no doubt reach a working compromise with all save a minority of extremists. The phraso', ''relief of combatants," is not very informative, but the Under-Secre-tary joe War made it plain that th« conscientious 'objectors will be asked to face the risks of battle, though not to handle rifle and bayonet, and no doubt it is intended to employ them in ammunition supply .and other similar duties, and in am- j bulanca units.