PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2720, 15 March 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Apart from messages throwing additional light upon the magnitude of the German losses in the attacks upon Fort Vaux towards the end of last week, comparatively littlo is added at time of writing t-o the .story of the Verdun battle. A lull has set in on the front east and west fcf the Meuse, which witnessed a day or twd ago the fiercest battle of the war. ' Neither in these areas nor east of tho fortress has any infantry action been fought in the immediate past, but further south, on thc_ Lorraine border, a French attack is icported which was apparently in the nature of a raid, the attackers returning to their own lines with prisoners after damaging tho enemy works. Activities in this.region aro liable at any time to expand. Tho locality in-which the French attacked is on the southern side of the great German salient. extending _ to and across the Meuse at St. Mihicl, and it is not at all unlikely that action in this quarter may be contemplated by- the Germans as the offensive against Verdun develops. * * * ft

According to a French daily review of the fighting, German losses at Verdun have now reached a total of 200,000. This is a smaller total than sqmc' unofficial commentators have given, buti is all the more likely on that account to be authoritative. If it is, the_ Germans are indeed paying a terrible tribute of lives in the attacks, which thus far have stopped no definitely short' of success. "Casualties totalling 200,000 would account for ten divisions at full strength of the 118 which Colonel Repington was quoted yesterday as stating the Germans had concentrated on the Western front. Th'is estimate may, however, be only a rough approximation. There are no means r>f testing its accuracy. This question of numbers is one in which all save the military authorities of the belligerent Powers are necessarily to a great extent in the darlc, but available infoi'iiiiitian. on ithe subject indicates that the Allies

arc able to maintain a considerable numerical superiority in the Western theatre even if the enemy; dangerously depletes his ranks in other theatres. before long should throw much clearer light than at present upon the relative numerical strength of the contending armies, and meantime speculation _on the subject is more or less futile.

At time of writing there is no confirmation o{ tho collision between Rumanian troops and Austrians and Bulgarians oh the Danube. It therefore seems probable that the report was an unfounded rumour or an exaggeration of » minor incident, and matters aro carried back to the_ point ,afc which they rested before it arrived. The very interesting report that Russia has agreed to ccde portion of Bessarabia to Rumania remains to be tested, and this is but the last of a series'of indications that Rumania is definitely headed towards intervention, though she may not yet bo ready to take the final step. At an immediate view ifc may seem highl.v improbable that Russia would cede Bess-arabian territory to Rumania. In a statement ho made to an interviewer, towards the end of last year, the Russian Foreign Minister _ (M. Sazonoff) rather more than hinted that Russia did -pot intend to mako concessions to Rumania, _ and was satisfied with her neutrality and confident; that it would be maintained. It is to be'eonsidered, however,- that the development of closer co-ordina-tion by the -Allies in their conduct of the war, has been accompanied by a. distinct change of policy in tho Balkans. Tho viow is widely accepted. though it cannot, of course, be established on definite_ evidence, that ■an aggressive policy in the Balkans was decided lipon at the direct - instance of General JoFFßE,_who succeeded in inducing Britain bo cooperate* with France in sending a strong army to Salonika, which otherwise would have been available in the Western theatre. Assuming such a radical change of policy on the part' of the Western Allies, it is not at all unlikely that Russia also has been induced to shift her ground to some extent, and as one result may now be prepared to make the reported concession to Rumania.

{Though Rumania- is not in a position to make or mar. Allied plans in the Balkans in the' same way as I Greeco was in the autumn of last year, to the extent of determining the fate of Serbia, it is uudoubtedly true that her decision as _ between continued neutrality and intervention is of very great importance. Entering the war, she would bring the Allies a valuable addition to their aggregate strength, and, what lis even Aiore important, enlarge their scope of profitable'action. At the least, Rumanian intervention should immediately pave tho way for an overwhelming attack on Bulgaria, and it should contribute also to a powerful offensive against the Austrians and Germans in the northern section of the Eastern theatre, which, in addition to its direct results, might be expected to materially ease and lighten the problem | by wh'ich the Italians are confronted in the Isonzo. These things ■ are in sight even if Rumania elects to remain neutral, but in that case they could not'bo as rapidly approached or as easily attained. It is on all grounds very natural that Rumania should be watchod at the present time with keen interest and some anxiety; > » * » »

Two reports which are mutually ] destructive state respectively that a revolution is threatened 111 Turkey as an alternative to an'early peace, and that tho persistent rumours icspecting peace negotiations in .Turkey are premature. Ordinary common sense suggests that, little attention should bo .paid to '•ep.f-ts of this kind one way or !he other, r-ven when they do not, as on the present occasion, point both' ways at once. There is no nqed to resort'to uncertain rumours in estimating tbe position reached by .Turkey and her prospects in the war. Definite eviclonce on these points is afforded -in campaign news. The Turks ■ are steadily losing ground in Armenia and in Persia. are still fighting on rather more than level terms in Mesopotamia, but appear, according to the latest available news, to be confining themselves to defensive tactics except as ■ regards tho continued siege of General Townsiiend's little force at Kut-01-Amara. As to the Egyptian campaign, Cor.ONEL Repinc-ton seems to express the general opinion when he says that it has'fizzled out, Turkey's hopes of profit in the war, if she ever had anv, have disappeared, and she is formidably menaced. The only qucs- 4 tion remaining seems to be how long the Germans by their domination of a traitor Government and by trading upon Turkey's internal disorganisation can compel her to continue ahopeless and ruinous struggle. .

Theee are further stories of an impending sortie by the German fleet with a view to a battle in the North Sea, byt they are decidedly unconvincing. Mention of a great force of super-submersibles does not 'make these rumours more impressive. Whatever they may have done in the way of expediting submarine construction, there is no reason to suppose that the Germans have solved'the problem of producing a submarine speedy enough to work and manoeuvre with a battle fleet. ,

Though an cxceptiopal stir of activity -is disclosed v on tho Italian front, there is no certain indication as yet that the Italians are taking the offensive on any considerable scale. Something of the kind is suggested in the statement of the CorHere dell a Sera that all news of military operations is forbidden for a few days, but the suggestion is not one upon Vhich it would be safe to base any very definite conclusion. Weather' conditions as they are described sq.em to put major operations out of the questiort for the time being. Winter in the hill areas of the Isonzo has given place to a thaw and a downpour'of rain which in somo places is washing out trenches, dugouts, and other works on the slopes. Though they have made some progress up the hill slopes, the Italians practically everywhere on the Gorizia front, to which most of the recent reports relate, occupy lower ground _ than their enemies, and they arc likely to fare at least as badly as the Austrians whilo the present weather conditions prevail. Thev appear, however, to be holding their own in the, new form of warfare, which consists in bringing down Avalanches upon the enemy by shelling the mountain sides. W'hile, as has been said, anything in the nature of a general engagement would seem to be 1 necessarily postponed until'the weather and resultant 'conditions have changed, rcporta from ftot-h Homo and Vienna indicate that tlw Italian*, took the

initiative in the artillery battle now under way, and arc subjecting tho Austrian positions to an intense bombardment. It is not easy at tho moment to understand just what is going on, but the explanation was submitted yesterday in _ a message from Home that the Italian activity is designed to prevent the Austrians reinforcing the Germans at Verdun. As it this is not very convincing, but it is likely enough that the Italians are intent upon keeping as many Austrians as possible engaged, some o£ whom might otherwise relieve Germans now on tho Russian front for servico in tho Western theatre.

"While some uncertainty obtains as to the intentions of the Italians in the near future, it must be recognised that no one of tho Entente Powers is faced by a more formidable task in the war. During last summer _ and autumn the Italians accomplished wonders. It is now a matter of common knowledge that by the vigour and dash 01 their early operations they forestalled an Austrian offensive through the Trenfcino. they have worked so far into the mountain ramparts of this groat Alpine salient and into the Carnic Alps further east,.as to t convert a weak and exposed frontier into a contihuoni chain of exceedingly strong defences. If they could now break through on the Isonzo front they would completely reverse the unfavourable handicap under which they. laboured when they entered the war. Instead of .being dangerously exposed to invasion, they would then be able_ to themselves 'invade Austria, feeling tolerably-secure in the strength of their defensive lines along tho greater part of their frontier, lines .from- which any advance is to be effected for the time,- if at all, 'only very, slowly. Tho problem of breaking • through on the Isonzo front, however, presents extraordin-ary-difficulties. Here, as elsewhere along their frontier, the Italians have made headway and captured some very formidable positions, but they are still faced by a range of immensely strong defences. This is particularly true of the Gorizia sector, which is the key to the- Isonzo 'front, as that front is the most promising gateway to an invasion of Austria.

* * * * The city. qf Gorizia itself lies bn low ground oast of the Isonzo, but it is protected by: a cresoent-shaped range of hill and mountain positions trending north and south for miles. On tire western side of tho river, opposite the city, i? the Podgora hill, a rounded shaggy eminence, about 700 feet high, which has witnessed soijie of the most desperate fighting of the war. It is considered the most vulnerable spot in the_ defences of the bridgehead of Gorizia, but though the Italians are established on its slopes it has thus far defied assaults. South' of Gorizia the Italians have mastered somo ridges and crests east of the Isonzo. but these arc dominated by still higher" elevations. To the north also tho vital summits and ridges remain as yet in Austrian hands. The Italians have achieved so much in their mountain l warfare that it certainly,, cannot be taken for granted that 'even such defences as line Isonzo will hold them indefinitely in check. But it is evident thai only-an immense superiority in numerical strength and in artillery power will enable them to overcomtf the tremendous handicap conferred upon the enemy by the naturil strength of his positions.

Another set of German peace terms said to have been conveyed to Washington by Colonel House (who' lately visited Berlin as President Wilson's envoy) figures in the news to-day. The use of the word "authoritatively" in the message does not necessarily mean that it is to be'accepted with faith, since : t. does not appear who or what the authority is. In any case, the matter is absolutely uniinporfcant .sir.ee the terms.allegedly offered by Germany fall absurdly short of anything that the Allies would grant.