PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2716, 10 March 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

It is now perfectly plain that the Battle of Verdun is still far from having reached its full development, and that tho tremendous conflicts of tho last 18 days are but the preliminaries to an e'ven greater struggle for which the stage is now being set. The Paris correspondent of the Times says that it remains to bo scon whether the German thrust west ol the . Mouse, which was . the principal event cfironicled yesterday, was intended only to reduce a troublesome salient—a railway bend facing the flank of the German positions across the river—or should be regarded as tho beginning of a big concerted action on the wings of the Verdun salient. Taking into consideration the nature and results of tho fighting to date and what is known of flic German concentration at Verdun, the question raised by the correspondent can hardly be regarded as open. The events of the past eighteen days around Verdun are understandable as the successive stages of an attack in which the Germans have set themselves at all costs to master the .fortress area. They are not understandable on any other hypothesis, and the suggestion

that it is possible to regard the latest _ enemy thrust west of tho Meusc as in any sense an isolated and local event may safely be dismissed as absurd. It is obviously an manifestly an ordered step in tho carefullyplanned effort to master the fortress area in furtherance of which the Germans are so freelv expending lives and war materiaf. We may return presently to the immediate significance of the operations west of the Mouse, but it will be worth while in the first instance to emphasise the extent, to which the general situation at Verdun has been altered since the Germans opened their assault. It is not more clear that the battles so far fought arc only preliminary to a greater struggle than that the situation as it stands is exceedingly critical. This, of course, relates to tho local situation, tho developments of which in the immediate future will determine the possession of tho fortress area. There is no more reason now than formerly to. contest the view that possession of .Verdun is not vital to the present interests or future prospects of the Allied Western Armies, and that the Germans, if their attack succeeds, are likely to pay a disastrous price for Verdun and its adjacent areas. These opinions are probably sound and very strong evidence that they are held by the Allied High Command is to be found in the lines upon which the struggle for Verdun has so far developed. * » * » The French have to all appearances made it their aim to keep their own losses as far as possible within bounds and inflict maximum losses upon the enemy. This is no doubt a wise and far-seeing policy which enables the Allies to fight the enemy under advantageous conditions, except as regards tho retention of territory, in the interval that must elapso before they can be ready to take concerted action against the enemy in all theat-os. Tho exception obviously has a very vital bearing upon the imuwd'ato fate of Verdun. Tho present tuin of events is to be explained, sftisfactorily, only on the .assumption that it is a matter of comparative indifference to the Allies whether they lose or retain Verdun. Thai is to say, it must be assumed that they consider it more important that the struggle should continue under existing conditions, with the burden imposed on tho enemy of launching one costly assault after another, than that the fortress area .-hould he safely held. If the Allies attnOj capital importance to the retention of Verdun they will secure i!?at end not by defensive action only, but by developing such a counter-stroke an will compel the Germans to slacken in their assault. So long as such a counter-stroke is Withheld we are justified in believing that the Allies prefer to risk the loss ii£ Verdun rather than risk a prematura assault upon the German Western front. **. * * That Verdun as matters stand is in somo jeopardy, and will be so as long as the enemy is permitted to concentrate in assault and the French restrict themselves to defensive tactics, is hardly open to quesJ 10 °- Broadly speaking, the change that has occurred since the Germans opened their attack on February 21 is that the margin which there was to conic and go upon in the defence of Verdun lias been largely whittled, or rather blasted, away, until the defending lines are now located in areas from which they cannot be much further retired, except at the cost of sacrificing the whole fortress aiea and the heights of the Meuso to the south. On the front, east of the Meuso, which has witnessed hitherto his most powerful and sustained assaults, the enemy has broken into the French front for a distance of about four miles, and the town and railway junction of Verdun are about as far ahead of Ms present lines. ■ So long as attack was confined to this northern front, which the French have made exceedingly strong, and to the area east and south of Verdun where they hold the heights overlooking the Woeuvro Plain, the situation from the point of view of the defence, though critical, was perhaps not acute. * - * * HA It is manifestly acute now that the j preliminary attacks on north and east have been followed up by a determined thrust at the essential Verdun railways. This, as Paris newspapers point out, is the true nature of the German attack west' of the Meusc. By their own account th* Germans have penetrated in this ■ area for a depth of two miles .on a front of four miles. This brings them within about six miles cf the main railway approaching _ Verdun from the west. It is plain enough that unless the enemy can bo stopped on this line of advance the check offered to his assault in the area east of the Me use will be nullified. It is a factor of importance thai tho Germans are already astride tho Mouse at St.. Mihiel, twenty miles south of Verdun. Sinco the latter part of 1914 their line has extended across the Woeuvre district in the form of a salient, with its point at St. Mihiel. At this place, besides being astride the river they are astride the main railway approaching Verdun from the south, though it is very possible that the French have constructed a short deviation, cutting out the section upon which St. Mihiel stands. The sides of the German salient across the Woeuvro district liavo from time to time been driven in to some extent by French assaults, and until recently it was regarded as no longer seriously threatening Verdun. With the great development of the present German assault It may bo necessary to depart from this opinion. At any rate the Germans in the area west of the Mouse are developing an attack which threatens to cut across tho Verdun salient and its railway communications from the northern wing, and it is not at all unlikely that they contemplate, a similar attack from their vantage point at St. Mihiel. * tt * , * The position in brief is that the Germans are proceeding from their initial assaults to develop a great turning movement .against the fortress area, a movement already definitely in progress on-the north, and very likely to presently take shape on tho south as well. As to past events each successive ;,tage of the battle thus far has witnessed a loss of ground by the Allies, though in every case it has been won by tho enemy at excessive cost. The defence lias been deeply penetrated, and is I now more than ever seriously threatened. Given time it seems bv no means impossible that the German assault may achieve its immediate object, and it; is all the more necessary to recognise the possibility since tho Allies are clearly determined not to take aggressive action prewa- ; turely.

The latest news in hand of the Verdun battle shows no material change in the situation. West of the Mouse the Frcnch have recovered some of the ground lately captured bv the enemy, but on Uie other side' they have lost the Haudmont,redoubt. - Notable progress is being made by the luissians in their advance along the Black Sea coast of Armenia Their occupation of Rizeh me;l ns that they have traversed about a third of the distance between their landing point at Antiina and Trebizond. From the latter place they arc now distant only 40 miles in a direct line, but there is a greater distance to be traversed in working round the coast. ° Some of the most interesting reports published to-day concerning Turkey and the Balkans are forwarded. by Mn. Martin Donohoe,who is a correspondent of standing and repute. He is nt present located, however, at At.;cns, and while the Greek capital is bound to bo a hot-bed of rumours it does not follow that it is possible to obtain reliable information theio in regard to the matters touched upon in Mr. Donoiioe's dispatch. Particularly as regards the disposition of enemy forces his news must a-vait confirmation. The German army in Bulgaria, he says, has been ordered to be in readiness for departure from its present front, and one division, lately stationed at Rustchuk, on the southern frontier of Rumania, has left for the Western theatre. Mr. Donohoe further reports that the Bulgarian Government has instructed its troops to withdraw from the neutral zone established on the Graeeo-Bulgariaii frontier. If the Germans intend, as now seems likely, to risk everything upon an effort for victory in the Western theatre, it is not quite impossible that they may adopt the policy indicated by Mr. Donohoe of withdrawing their own troops and leaving the Bulgarians to fight a defensive campaign, presumably with some assistance from Austria. Obviously, however, unless Germany can contrive to strike such a blow in the Western theatre as to cripple Allied action in the Near East and intimidate Rumania and Greece, she must regard the Balkans rather as an area demanding reinforcements than as one permitting the withdrawal of force. * * « * Mr. Donohoe, it will bo noted, passes on the story that the Porte has ordered the removal of mines from the Dardanelles. This, if it were authentic, would be the most definite indication yet afforded that Turkey is strongly inclined to seek a separate peace, but the report regarding the mines is hardly consistent with another, also transmitted by Mr. Donohoe, that the' body which he calls' the New Turkish Committee decided, after dvyuEsing peace proposals, to await the result of the fighting on the French front before talcing any definite step.