PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2714, 8 March 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

As news stands »£. the moment it is possible to infer that the Verdun battle has already reached the end of its second active phase, and that the second great effort of the Germans to master the heights of the Metise has failed as definitely as the more sustained attempt by which't was immediately preceded. Pam newspapers, it is true, predict tlat tho German offensive may last for some days, and speak of the assault on Verdun being still yigorousiy maintained, but these newspaper comments are presumably of earlier date than tEe French communique which speaks of a night that witnessed no infantry action at Verdun, and for the rest of bombardment, violent at some points, but on other sections of the Verdun front intermittent. Possibly these details are deceptive as indicating a definite lull—the night in which no infantry action was attempted may havo been followed by a day of violent battle— but the broad suggestion of the news at present in hand certainly is that the German assault on Verdun has slackened a second time.

.While the precise state of affairs on the battle front is to some extent hi doubt, there is no doubt that tho enemy has been checked, and that his assaults have broken in vain against the reorganised French defences on their new line. So much being said, tho question as to what will happen next is exceedingly open. It is plain that if the Germans intend to persevere at Vercjun they must redouble and magnify their past efforts. Otherwise they arc dimply throwing away' lives without hope of gain, for it is by this time, tolerably certain that the French at Verdun arc well able to withstand indefinitely such assaults as the Germans appear capable of making at this point of tho line. It would seem that the enemy now has to choose between incurring still heavier sacrifices in the hope of_ achieving some decisive result in his Verdun offensive, or shifting his point of attack. He is not, of course, tied to Verdun, and may quite conceivably have an alternative objective, _ or. objectives in view. On this point the absence of news at present concerning other parts of tlio Western theatre is perhaps significant. Recently various local battles and other activities have been reported on different sections of the Western front. At time of writing there is no news of this character. That there is nothing of the kind to report is incredible, and it is possible .that news oi some important development is for the time being withheld. » * * » That the enemy has any alternative to a vigorous-prosecution of his Western offensive does not seem likely or even possible. Even if accounts lately given of the state _ of tho public mind in Germany in reference to this effort for victory havo been overdrawn, the definite . fact Btands that the Germans havo suffered appalling losses, and as yet have nothing of moment to set against them. Calling a halt now, they would be admitting Helplessness and failure, and from every point of viow- would be immensely worse off than when they opened their assault. Differont theories are afloat as to the objects by which tho Germans wero actuated in taking this action, but all aro consistent with an opinion that they took a big risk in the hope of winning a decisive victory. Tliis they have not done, and even if their immediato aim was to facilitate the flotation of their new war loan or to influence hesitating neutrals, or both those things, they can hardly afford to halt now when they have paid no small part of tho price of victory without winning it. It remains probable, howover, that the Germans forced a great battle at Verdun in the hope of winning such a victory as would affect the whole course of the war. That they consider it important to push their war loan and influence neutrals may bo taken for granted, but these limited objects are included in the greater object. •V- * * * If they halt now they have simply thrown away a bbdy of strength which might better have been retain* cd for defence, and such a policy is not likely either to boost a war loan or to influence, other than advcrsel.v to Germany, any hesitating neutral country. What is much more important, it would mean a confession by Germany that she had blundered recklessly on the eve of the- great struggle for supremacy that is impending. That she has so blundered is likely enough, but nothing is less likely than,that she will be prepared to confess as much. It is rather to be expected that the blow struck, ah yet ineffectively, at Verdun, will bo repeated there or elsewhere while Germany has power or opportunity to strike. Though' fairly convincing ovidence is afforded that the German onslaught lias been definitely checked at Verdun, it would be unduly optimistic to suppose that the battle, as far as it has gone, has witnessed the maximum effort of which ■ Germany, is capable.

Remarks attributed to General Sarrail deserve particular attention at this anxious interval. There is no reason to doubt that they are authentic, for, as Gommandcr-iu-in-Chief of the Allied Army in Greece, General Saiirail lifts diplomatic as well as military functions to perform, and is likely to speak with greater freedom than would be expccced in ordinary circumstances of a military leader. Of the nature of the Verdun defences and their ability to withstand assault, General Sarrail is well qualified to speak, since it fell to his lot to reorganise them on modern lines; but tlie statement -attributed to him to-day does not relate to Verdun only. He is quoted as declaring his ■ confidence that the Germans' offensive in the West will he entirely crushed, and as saying further: "They are fling-' ing themselves at a _ wall behind which they can gain ■ nothing." Though he knows as much as any man about the nature of the Western defences, General Sarrail, it will be noted, does not'repose his confidence in the strength of these defences, but in the superior strength and fighting power of the Allied Western armies. It is behind the wall against which they are flinging themselves thaths says the Germans can gain nothing, » # $ e Later news than has been touched upon speaks of German attacks north-west of Verdun, on the western side of the Mouse, in the Ar£onne Forest, find still further wt\s; m the .Champagne district. As yet these operations figure only as assaults upon advanced positions, resulting in a limited gain of ground. They seem of ..minor importance in comparison with the great conflict lately waged in the territory east of the -Mouse, but it is a possibility to be recognised that the storm-centre may now at any moment be removed from Verdun' to some other section of the front. « * n * More than ordinary interest attaches to the news that the Russians have occupied Antina, a small Turkish port on the Black Sea, sixty miles east of Trebizoud. .Being no* definitely established oil the enemy coast, will be able to use sea transport' in supplying their northern forces in Armenia, and a considerable impetus may thus be imparted to the campaign. Trebizond is obviously threatened, and, capturing that port, the Russians would valuably supplement and* relievo their land transport through the Caucasus. A Petrograd communique reports that the Turks have been dislodged from a strong. position south of Antina, between that place and Trebizond. > * • * A report transmitted by Mr. Martin Donohoe that the Russians are advancing towards' Bagdad is in a different class. Presumably this relatesto a forward movement of the Russian forces in Persia, but it is difficult to believe that they are offering any immediate threat to Bagdad. At last reports they were located near Kermanshah, about 170 miles, as the crow flies, from Bagdad, but with mountain ranges and desert areas intervening. Since the Russians, as far as information goes, are not operating in Persia in any very great numerical strength, it seems most unlikely that they will get anywhere near Bagdad so long as the Turks continue to offer an organised resistance. Mr. Donohoe and other correspondents send along further stories of unrest and peace agitations in Turkey, but as yet these internal disorders seejn to have exercised little influence upon the campaigns in Armenia, and Mesopotamia. **» 9 ' Ac6ordiijg to a Constantinople telegram, the Turks have been lieavly engaged with General Aylher near Nasiriyeh since February 21. General Aylmer's column is more than a hundred miles away from Nasiriyeh, and very much more by any practicable route, but the Turkish report no doubt refers to fighting on the Tigris about 20.miles be- j low Kut-el-Amara. It is herejnear J Umm-el-Hcnna), as . a recent official report disclosed, that General Aylmer is actually located.