PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2700, 21 February 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

It is still an open question whether the Germans intend to proceed from their scattered local attacks in tho Western theatre, to a general offensive, but there are hints in the news to-day that they may be making ready for ail attack in force on tho Ypres salient. Official news, it is | true, supplies no very definite indication of this -character. The importance of the recent German success in winning some 600 yards of trenches south-east of Ypres has been minimised, and to-day Sir Douglas Haig reports artillery activity on both sides on the Ypres front, together with an Allied bombardment of the enemy positions further north, which no doubt represents a counter-stroke, or the threat of a counter-stroke, to the German threat against Ypres. COll- - as they are to a bare outline of results to date in the recent fighting, these official reports throw no light upon the magnitude of the effort tho enemy is putting forth against Ypres, and practically none upon the nature of his attacks during the last few days. It is to be supposed, however, that even "the International trench," as it is topically. named, was not resigned bv tho British without very serious ancl desperate fighting. There are sections of the "Western front where the loss or gain of an advanced position is of comparatively, little importance, but the Ypres salient is not such a section. It has been defended at hc.avy cost against repeated enemy assaults, and not by any means with entire success. Like all salients, it is a weakness in the line, and the Germans have contrived -to materially reduce its original area, but every such reduction has been desperately resisted.

The official • reports certainly afford no warrant for setting aside the opinion expressed by some English military experts that the Germans are developing a powerful assault with the object of obliterating the salient which the Allies have so doggedly defended and maintained. Presumably the opinion is based upon fuller information than is available here at the moment. To the extent that the German assault is of much more important dimensions than the official reports would indicate, the view taken by . these British experts, is confirmed by M. Mabcel Hutin, who has written 011 the subject in the Echo de. Paris. The French writer, however, considers that the German blow has been struck and has failed to servo its intended purpose, while the English experts consider that the Allies arc still formidably menaced at Ypres. In other respects also, M. Hutin's survey of the position is materially at variance with that of his British contemporaries. He notes, as they do, that the Germans have been pouring reinforcements into south-western Belgium, and have accumulated great quantities of munitions, but his optimistic conclusion is that since only a few trendies were captured the offensive was virtually equivalent to a failure. • M. Hutin, it will be observed, declares that the British have regained several sections of the six hundred yards of captured trenches, but this is not confirmed in official reports received at time of writing. *•

M. Hutin thinks the enemy has definitely failed in another effort to break through to Calais. Evidently this view is not shared in London. The English experts quoted assign tt more limited'purpose to the German assault—an effort to flatten the Ypres salient and so deprive the Allies of a "spring-board for their next offensive—but they treat the attack as one that has not yet developed in its full proportions. They speak of the heavjy reinforcement of the German armies in southwestern Belgium as being still in progress, and. plainly believe that the Ypres salient is Jikely soon to to be subjected to more powerful :asnaults. than it has recently had to bear. As has been said, this opinion must be received meantime with a measure of respect, since it is very probably based upon fuller information from the sccno of operations than the official reports published have supplied. It is all the more likely to be well founded since it does not credit the enemy with contemplating any such , ambitious offensive as might ho supposed to exceed the means he now has at command, but assumes that he is chiefly intent upon strengthening his front by depriving tile Allies of a position which is likely to stand them in good stead when they betake themselves to assault.

The Ypres salient is the remaining evidence and visible- token of an attempt made by tho British forces to develop a turning movement against the German main front in the days following the Battle of the Aisne. The attempt •Was frustrated almost at its inception, but the importance of the ualient as a jumping-off point may be gauged from the fact that it has been more desperately contested than any other area of anything like equal size visited by the war. The wedge of a few square miles of tountry cast of Ypres has been tho occasion of two battles of the' first magnitude, in addition to innumerable conflicts on a smaller scale. Apart from the tremendous battle in which the Germans were brought to a stand in October and November, 1914, it is estimated that in the second Battle of Ypres, in April and Maylast year, they brought half a million men against the 150,000 who held the salient for the Allies.

One thing which should be tolerably ccvtiiiu is that if tliavo is tn bu another battle for tbe ualient, the

Germans will have no such tremendous handicap in their favour as they had in the earlier battles. In April and May they had a preponderance in numerical strength and artillery, which they no longer possess, and as an additional aid to success they introduced the criminal weapon of poison i*as, against which efficient safeguards have now heen devised. Allowance must be made for the fact that the salient is not D.n easy position to defend, but the Allies in their developed strength are now much better placed than in the past, both to res.st local attack on any vulnerable section of their lino, and to create a diversion by attacking the enemy elsewhere. The German-assault on the Ypres salient in the spring of last year was followed speedily bv the Allied offensive. in Northern France, which formidably threatened the German main communications. An attempt against the salient at this stage would be apt to draw some even more effective countcr-strokc.

* v.- « * The weakest detail in the current predictions of offensive action by the Germans in the Western theatre {s perhaps the prominence given' to the name of the Grown Prince. It is not a name to conjure with, and reports that he has been elevated to an important command are somewhat unconvincing. This not only because the name of the German heir-apparent has been associated with all sorts of baseless rumours and more or less humorous fabrications, but bcca-use there is much reason to believe that he has signally failed to display any liigb military capacity. An enterprise with which his name has been.definitely connected was the sustained assault made some months ago on the French positions in the Argonne, and this has been classed as an incident in the war of attrition with which the French have every reason to be satisfied.'

Early reports of the capture of Erzerum indicated that the effective usn of a powerful siege-train contributed materially to the rapidity and overwhelming character of the Russian victory, but it now seems that it must be attributed largely to the skill shown by the Russian commanders in outflanking the Turkish defcnccs, and taking them in rear, and the splendid dash and valour of the assaulting troops. The statement in one message that tho Russians fought without heavy artillery must be accepted with some reserve, in view of the numerous references which have been made in official and other reports to the bombardment of the forts, but it is evident that the storming troops relied in many instances upon the bayonet, and won their victory in hand-to-hand fighting. An official report boars testimony to the completeness of the Turkish defeat, and to the fact that the survivors of the garrison _ are retreating in disorder in various directions, still suffering heavily under a vigorous .Russian pursuit.

This apart, the position reached Is not very clearly defined, though unofficial messages take a very hopeful view of the outlook. It is oven stated in ono of these messSges that the Russians are. not likely to stop short of Sivas, a place just about 220 miles due west of Erzerum, and therefore a third of the way from Erzerum to Constantinople. This looks like an instance of hopes outrunning actual prospects. What is known of the position makes it unlikely that the Russians_ will venture as far afield' as Sivas, at all events until their victorious stroke at Erzerum has been. seconded by their Allies elsewhere.* It need not bo assumed, however, that the, Russians will limit their present pursuit to areas which they hope to immediately occupy and hold against attack when the Turks have had time to bring up reinforcements. It is a point to be noted where Sivas is concerned, that though it lies 220 miles west of Erzerum, it is only a hundred miles south from the Black Sea coast, while it is something like twice that distance away from the nearest Turkish railway. Their command of the Black Sea is likely to have an important bearing upon such future operations as the Russians may undertake in Asia Minor, and several messages to-day indicate. that it is already exercising a certain influence.

The general contention of the Color/tic Gazette that the disaster which has overtaken the Turks at Erzerum is clue to th'cir failure to build railways and create a fleet gains weight from one or two specific reports which point the Same moral. Russian warships have bombarded Trebizond, the nearest Black Sea. port (of any size) to Erzerum, destroying road bridges and fifteen sailing vessels. It is mentioned also that an army corps which the Turks are moving towards Erzerum as reinforcements will be useless because it will'arrive without its artillery,' this having been shipped via Trebizond. Possibly the Russians have intercepted the artillery of this corps. At all events, they are evidently making effective use of their sea power as an adjunct to their land campaign, and they arc likely to find extended employment for their warships as the campaign develops.

Possibly the Turks assign another reason than neglect of naval development and railway construction for their misfortunes at Erzerum. A Rome message predicts dissension betwefen the Turks and Germans, recalling in support of the prediction the recent report of a heated dispute between Enver Bey and the German generals at a war council. According to this report Enver Bey demanded that Turkish troops should be transferred from Thrace to Caucasia, and the Germans resisted 1 the demand. This certainly seems to. provide the material for further quarrel, but the Rome message appears to bo a speculation based upon a report of somewhat uncertain authority.

No striking development is reported at time of writing in the Russian main theatre, but renewed German activity, with a free use of Zeppelins, aeroplanes, and poison gas, in the Baltic Provinces, seems to betray a desire to divert Russian strength from the critical southern area. The dispatch of a correspondent who has lately visited Bukowina and Galicia bears. witness to the magniture of the Russian r.oncentration in that quarter.

The indefatigable Mr. Tom Shields, the well-know n apostle of swimming, who took an active part in the school children's swimming sjx>rts at Pctone on Friday, is going afield this week to teach the young idea how to behave themselves in the water. On Wednes. day he is to visit Pahiatita in connection with the school swimming sports, and on Tliured.iy he will be prosont at ths sports ia Uarterton.