PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2696, 16 February 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Perhaps the most important detail event chronicled to-day is the capture by the llussians of one of the Erzerum forts. It is a further and definite assurance that the Russian invasion of Armenia is being developed in powerful strength, and is likely to keep a very considerable portion of the available Turkish forces engaged. More than this is hardly to be expected until the Allies have materially developed their campaign in the Balkans, but tho turn of events in Armenia, of" course, tends very materially to facilitate and clear the way for an Allied onslaught in the Balkans. It. is indeed only less important from thia point_ of view than the Russian offensive on the southern section of their main front. A very interest-' ing story is told by a Salonika correspondent about a lively dispute between Envek Bey -and the German generals concerning the disposition of the Turkish armies. Since tho deliberations of tho enemy high command and their outcome are of necessity closely guarded, such reports aro to be taken always with a grain of salt. At best they can hardly bo move than the result of intelligent intuition. But in the present instance it seems more than likely that the reported conflict between Enver Bey and the German generals approximates very closely to the actual facts. Taking the report as merely an attempt to penetrate enemy counsels by a. process of reasoning, it receives striking confirmation and support in the definite nfcw? that one of the Erzerum forts has fallen. Nothing is more natural in the 4 circumstances than that Envee Bey should be extremely desirous of retaining the whole strength of the Turkish Army for home defence, and averse to sending . Turkish troops to fight a German battle in the Balkans. According to the Salonika edrrespondent quoteil the Germans have insisted in keep-, j ing the Turks in Thrace, but it seems likely that the progress of the Russians jit Erzerum may compel a revision of this decision.

The days of "calm" and "quiet" on the Western front have departed, in all likelihood finally until the end of the war. In their Strict meaning these terms were always misnomers as applied to a war area in which strife never absolutely' died down, even in the days when "stalemate" was a stock expression._ But they are inapplicable even in a relative sense to the conditions described during the last few weeks, conditions which presumably represent the stirring of the opposing armies in preparation for conflict on a vastly greater scale. Individually, the attacks and countcr-attacks which aro being developed with increasing frequency are of limited importance, but in the aggregate they amount to a considerable volume of heavy fighting. The natural explanation of these late developments is that each side is in-, tent upon tonfusing 'the other, and aims at creating conditions favourable for decisive attack, and at hampering and hindering effective concentration for such attack on the part of the enemy. Obviously, with such conditions obtaining, decisive events may occur at any time, and without warning, but that the growing stir of battle now visible necessarily preludes an early grand offensive by one side or the other cannot be taken for granted.

On the' contrary, it must be recognised that tjie conditions now reported in the AVesterri theatre are an inevitable outcome of the changed circumstances in which the armies a.re placed. "Relative calm" is no longer possible, at all events for any length of time, because the conditions which made it possible have departed. The chief element in these departed conditions was no doubt a definite superiority in strength on the part of the German armies. The first great phase of the war was one in which the Allies had perforce to accept conditions of relative calm in the intervals between German ' assaults because they were too weak to do anything else. The position is now absolutely transformed. The approach of the northern spring is, of course, an important factor, but the dominating fact to bo kept in mind at this.stage is that it is now the Allies who have superior strength at command. Germany is not beaten and the defensive powers of her Western lino have yet to be tested, but her a-rmies in the Western theatre are outnumbered, and unless reports lie she is faced also by a definitely superior force of artillery. These are circumstances which, practically preclude the possibility of any such lull in the Western campaign as has been witnessed in past months of the war. With the forces present which may at any moment be locked in decisive conflict any return to or towards conditions of rc- , lative quiet is unthinkable. When one antagonist was capable only of defence and the other exhausted by fruitless assaults, conditions almost of stagnation were possible, j'hev aro no longer possible when Germany, thoiigh thrown back in defence, is still to be accounted immensely formidable, while the Allies hitva ranged against hor jioi'ha.ps the greatest roiUt&rx force ever seen.

in any single theatre of war. It may be days, weeks, or months, before the war-storm bursts in full fury in the Western theatre, but nothing - but a rising tide of conflict can be looked for from this time forward.

Reading the accounts given to-day of local battles in the West it is possible to infer that the enemy lias in places reaped some local advantage, and that he has more to show for his recent efforts than the Allies. The Germans claim to have captured Frcneh trenchcs in the Champagne district, and in Alsace, and against this the_chief Allied achievement recorded is the capture of German trenches south of the Somrac, which may only mean a further recovery of positions lately lost in this region. If the Frcncli have not only won back their lost positions, but penetrated those from which the enemy launched his recent attack, then, of course, their achievement is much more notable. As regards the capture by the enemy of advanced positions in the Cha-mpagne district and in Alsace some details in the Allied reports suggest that the resultant advantage may be more apparent 'than real. In the first-men-tioned area the Germans captured the site of French advanced trenches under or near which the French themselves exploded three mines, apparently as tnc enemy advanced. Artillery' fire brought the enemy to a dead_ stop short of the French supporting trenches, but he contrived, afc heavy cost, to retain a footing in the explosion arSa. In Alsace the i'rench admit abandoning positions which were entirely destroyed, but add that enemy reinforcements were I caught bv their firo in tho same region. . There is at least, a suggestion* in these reports that the Gerraans_ may haye squandered lives in winning ground which has only a nominal value and the 'fact is piain that the French <aro trusting in tho main to an artillery defence of their line. At one point in Alsace they launched an infantry counter-attack and recovered the greater part of «■ position which had been taken by the enemy, but elsewhere it was the artillery that brought the Germans to a halt.

Of the British front Sir Douglas Haig reports a groat outburst of mine-fighting south of the La Bassee Canal, but only fceblo infantry attacks by the enemy, which were easily checked. On the whole news from the Western theatre, though fairly copious, does not permit of any very close analysis, but it seems to admit an inference that the Allies, though in superior force, are bent meantime upon economising fchoir_ strength, while the enemy is pouring out bis strength freely in attacks which oan hardly'be expected to achieve any very important result. The impression convej'ed in recent official reports is that Germany has as a rule taken the initiative in these local battles. For suoh a policy on her part there is an intelligible motive. Whether or not they contemplate an early attempt to break tho German line and compel a retreat it is highly probable that tho Allies contemplate early action, and action on a powerful scale, in sympathy with the Russian offensive in Galicia and Bukowina, which seems likely to exercise such a potent influence upon developments in thp Balkans. The issues at stake in tho war are far too important to permit of hasty or preniatare action, and, as has been said, it cannot be assumed that local battles in the Western theatre immediately portend a decisive conflict. But co-ordination is the keynote of tho Allied war policy, andjt is not to be supposed that the Russians will be allowed to indefinitely,, continue the offensive they have opened on their southern front without some related and supporting action baing taken in the other main theatre. Apprehension of such a blow in the West as would impair, at a critical juncture, their fighting, power in Russia ancl the. Balkans' will amply account for the lotal attacks the Germans are developing In France and Flanders. Their essential aim is \ioubtles3 to enforce a distribution of the Allied forces and postpone as long as possible a more arduous conflict for which they are ill-prepared in view of the calls by which they are faced in the Eastern and South-Eastern theatres. Success or failure achieved in the activities, now astir on the- Western front will therefore be measured, not by any local or immediate events, but by tho influence exerted upon much more important events to follow.

It is now reported that the United States is likely to withdraw its pro'posals to tho Allies concerning the imposition of restrictions upon armed merchantmen, a step obviously whioh would mean retreat from a hopelessly false and indefensible position. Simultaneously extracts are cabled from a newspaper interview, in which Count Behnstorfk is reported to have said that further submarine attacks upon passenger ships, armed or unarmed, are inconceivable, and that the immunity of' these ships henceforth is guaranteed by the terms of the Lusitania settle-, ment. These pious professions are plainly at variance with Germany's recent announcement that all armed merchantmen would be sunk at sight, and they must await confirmation or denial. The same applies to the report that America intends to withdraw her proposal concerning , armed merchantmen. Taking both reports at their . face value, however, and they have an obvious relation, it would seem possible that America has shown a disposition to break out' of tho diplomatic toils in which Germany so skilfully entangled her, and that the latter country has been compelled to modify her policy accordingly. At the same time the optimistic reports current to-day include a statement that it is expected that the United States will ''"now await developments, in other words, do nothing further." This scarcely promises well for the future, more especially a? there is no evidence, apart from tho statement attributed to Count , Bgrnstorff, that any really satisfactory settlement has been reachcd in the Lusitania case.

Regeet out of all proportion to the material value of the loss will be awakened by the news that the light cruiser Arcthusa has been blown up by a rhino. In a brief, but glorious, career this ship has added new lustre to a name of renown in British naval annals. Barely completed when the war began, she went practict.lly from the builders' hands into the Battle of Heligoland, in which action she carried the flag of Commodore Tyrwhitt. Fighting for a time against desperate odds, the Arethusa won me'rlted distinction. She was badly knocked about, but was soon heard of on service again. She played an even more distinguished part in the raid on Cuxhaven on Christmas Day, IRH, Tbis exploit .sis acclaimed at the time as one of.

the most brilliant of the war, and there is no reason now to revise the judgment. With her consort', the Undaunted, and a torpedo flotilla, the Arcthusa manoeuvred for three hours at the mouth of the Elbe, easily beaming off the attacks of German Zeppelins aud submarines, while a flight of sea-planes bombard-' ed the forts and aerodromes of Cuxhaven. To the bold challenge thus offered the Germans did not respond otherwise than by sending out airships and submarines, and the British squadron ultimately withdrew without loss. For a ship with such deeds to her, credit some batter fate could have been wished than that she should perish by striking a mine, but though her career has been short and her end untimely, the fame of the latest Arcthusa will live .long. Brief as her career has been she has strikingly disproved the opinion held by some high naval authorities at the outbreak of war that the day of the light, swift cruiser was over, and it is a matter for congratulation that the British Navy owns not a few ships which, though they have como less into prominence, duplicate the Arcthusa in all but name.

All sorts of accidents and_ misadventures are possible where mines are concerned, and the fact that the Arcthusa struck u. mine off the East Coast of England does . not necessarily imply that the mine was laid in position by the enemy. It may quite possibly have been a derelict. At the same time it may still be within the power of the Germans to lay mines along the English coasts. Months ago it was reported, on apparently good authority, that they had perfected mine-laying submarines of an improved type,* large and powerful craft with an extended radius ,of action.