PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2695, 15 February 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

The story of America's recent diplomatic dealings with Germany not yet been told in full, but >;nougii is already revealed to make one wonder where the. Great Kepuhlic, as some of its citizens are foad of calling it, is. really heading for. As the circumstances _ are presented no more charitable view seems possible than that President Wilson and his colleagues, by sheer lack of foresight and inability to grasp essential facts, have led their country into a false and humiliating position. Any alternative explanation must needs be even less creditable to the men who direct the foreign policy and xffairs of the United States. WhatoA'er the motives inspiring President Wilson and his colleagues, in their recent diplomatic adventures, may have been, thero is no question at all about the false position in which they have landed their country. Only one reading of the salient 'facts seems possible. America has not only failed to secure an undertaking from Germany to respect the lives of her citizens on the high seas, but has taken initial steps in a policy which need only' be logically developed to . involve the defence, instead of the denunciation, of further piracy and crime. ■ A couple of weeks ago tho American State Department issued a Note to belligerents concerning armed merchantmen, which, standing alone, was practically incomprehensible. Though somewhat uncertain in tone its proposals tended generally to hamper and restrict the Powers addressed in arming their merchantmen against submarine attack. Indeed, the Note stated in so many words that: "In yicw of the extensive use of submarines, which armed merchantmen are able to attack. there is grave doubt if it be legal for merchantmen to carry armament." It was remarked at the time that this pronouncement seem-' ed incapable of any reasonable explanation, but the explanation is now available that it was made at the request and i/istanco of Germany. The sequel to the American Note appears in the German announcement, eohoed by Austria, that armed merchantmen will bo sunk at sight.

« * * • News on the subject to-day implies that Britain and ' her Allies, as might have been expected, are disinclined to accept the condition prescribed by America in regard to the arming of merchantmen. Unless the American Government modifies its Note it may, therefore, find itself presently on c.ommon ground with the Government of Germany in defending the lawless submarine attacks without warning which it has hitherto denounced. How America came to be manoeuvred into this attitude has not yet been made completely plain. One Washington correspondent goes so far as to suggest that President Wilson weakly gave way and abandoned the principles for which he had been contending under a German threat of war. Another correspondent, the Washington representative of The Times, submits a more detailed, but'not materially different, explanation. He thinks that tho American Government isued its Note in deference to the "insistent, nagging" of the Central Powers, and hoped in so doing that the proposals embodied would be accepted by the Allies, and further that the issuing of the Note would tend to facilitate a settlement of the Lusitania case. This is to say, that the American Government tried to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds, with, such results as might have been expected.

Obviously, unless the American Government retraces its steps, the very gravest possibilities are opened Up. The world has hitherto looked to America as a champion, though perhaps a somewhat diffident champion, of international law, That character America under its present governors has palpably lost. Whether the Wilson Government was tricked or intimidated into drafting its Note concerning armed merchantmen, the document can only bo interpreted as lending a measure of countenance and support to an absolutely lawless and indefensible sea policy. The merchantman armed for defence only has a rccogniscd standing in international usage. The submarine, employed as the Central Powers have employed it, to attack merchant ships without warning and sink them without regard to the safety of their crews and nort-com-batant passengers, has, and can have, no such standing. Attacking, or questioning, the standing of the merchantman armed for defence, the United States Government is acting without warrant or precedent, and incidentally is more or less definitely defending the practices of the enemy submarines. Almost unlimited possibilities of trouble fjra time opened iuj, but the immediate effect of its

new policy seems to be that the United States Government has renounced tho right of making effective protest against any submarine outrage Germany may care to commit. By any action tending to enforce the conditions set forth in its Note, it will, I of course, directly assist to magnify the results of the German submarine campaign. The i\ T otc embodies a threat that refusal to accept its conditions may lead to the exclusion from American ports of the armed merchantmen of the Powers concerned. This would suit Germany almost as well as if she were enabled to sink tho ships at sea. Absurdity could hardly go further than in creating AmcriQa tho defender and assistant of Germany in her submarine campaign, but on present appearances America, will escape this fate only by backing as speedily as sho may out of the trap into which sho has blundered under President Wilson's guidance. Tho resignation of the Secretary for War* Mr. Garrison, is an encouraging symptom. Mr. Garrison, it is stated, resigned his post because President Wilson refused to 1 adopt measures for a sufficiently strong army to defend tho United States. Perhaps it may ultimately appear that the resignation was prompted by disgust at the President's spineless policy in dealing with Germany and the truckling spirit manifested in its later developments. At all events, Mr. Garrison's withdrawal from tho Government is probably a more reliable indication of the trend of American public opinion than the pro-German muttering of the Yellow Press.

The jubilation which is reported in Germany is no doubt fully accounted for by the success which has been achieved-in sowing discord between America, and the Allies, and by the hope that it will grow. There is soilio tall talk also about a revival of "tfnlimitcd and thereby fully effective submarine war against England," but it loses effect from the consideration that there is no possible reason to suppose that Germany has ever imposed any limit upon the operations of her submarines since their campaign opened a year ago. The implied suggestion that there is a reserve of submarine strength which has been held inactive, and will now be brought out, may safely be dismissed as chimerical and absurd. The simple and satisfactory explanation of the decline whicn has now long been evident in submarine operations in the eeas around Great Britain is that a very large proportion of the raiders were destroyed, and that most ox the survivors have found a more congenial, because rather less dangerous, cruising ground in the Mediterranean. Formidably threatened as she now is in the land campaign in South-Eastern Europe, Germany is doubtless more than ever anxious to do as much damage as possible on the Mediterranean _ transport and supply routes. It is presumably in her power, by withdrawing or diverting boats from the Mediterranean, v to revive the submarine campaign in British seas to some extent, but in these seas the underwater craft are exposed to the perils of a counter-campaign which by all accounts has been raised to a marvellous pitch of efficiency. * » * *

According to an Athens message,' "the statement is confirmed that Bulgaria made overtures to the Entente lor a separate peace." _ The mere fact that it is oxpressed in this form doss not, of course, establish the truth of the report, but for what it is worth it is interesting. It need not bo doubted that many Bulgarians, perhaps _ a great majority, are intensely desirous of peace, but the weight of evidence is that the country has been sold by its rulers body and soul to Germany, and considerable doubt must on that account exist as to whether the reported overtures have been made. In any case it may be regarded as quite certain that the Entente would grant no such terms to Bulgaria at the present stage as would be in the least likely to be accepted, and advances by that country would be of practical importance only as implying weakness, or a lack of unity, in the enemy camp.

Reports from the Western theatre tell of minor battles on many sections of the front, and of abnormal aerial and artillery activity, ' just such conditions as may at any time resold into a blaze o'f greater events. More particulars of the struggle that is in progress on the Russian southern front indicate that it is being waged with intense fury, but it seems thus far to have resulted in little change of ground. There is some interesting news from the Balkans, but it mostly speaks for itself. It goes as a whole to confirm impressions lately conveyed that the Allies are marshalling their forces for a sweeping offensive campaign. It is to be noted, however, that a Salonika correspondent is of opinion that active operations in the south will be postponed for some weeks by wet leather.