PROGRESS OF THE WAR.

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2694, 14 February 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR.

Failing to take the initiative in the Balkans, the Germans and their associates have been anticipated by the. Allies. The latter, instead of waiting to bo attacked in their fortified lines around Salonika., have effected a material extension of these lines to the west. The left flank of the Allied line has hitherto coincided with the courso of the river Vardar for a distance of fifteen miles from tlie sea.. The French, by whom this section ot the front is held, have now crossed the river and advanced some miles to the west. Aocording t.o one message they have reached the Verria region (Verria is a station 25 miles west of the Vardar and 40 miles west of Salonika), but a more detailed report states that the new line is eight miles west of the Vardar, and consists of a line_ cf heights which might have provided the enemy with,a series of excellent positions for heavy guns. From this point of view the French advance may bo sot down as in part intended to improve the Salonika defences, kit it probably has an offensive object also. The French, it is stated, advanced from the Vardar in two divergent columns, which may be taken to mean that they moved forward along the Salonika-Monastir railway and along a road which runs | west from the Vardar further north.

Whether this westward movement heralds an early offensive or is ragarded as completed for the time being, it is a convincing indication j of the growing strength of the Allied army at Salonika, and, what is cveffl more important, of the extent which the plans of the enemy in the Balkans have been thrown out of gear. The opinion which has-been expressed that only enemy weakness will account for the failure to attack Salonika- is s'orongly emphasised by correspondents who to-day review the position in the Balkans. If they estimate the position correctly, tho initiative in the south-eastern theatre passed to the Allies when the Efcssians massed troops on the northern frontier of Rumania and so compelled tho enemy to transport to the Dairubo forces which otherwise would have been launched against Salonika before the Allies had completed their fortifioations at that place. The fact at all events stands that the onemy failed to strike his blow for complete victory in the Balkans when it could have been most profitably delivered. Tha-t the Russian offensive in Galicia and Bukowina has since assisted very materially to paralyse | enemy action in the Balkans does not admit of dispute.

Strait detail features of the position reached in the south-eastern theatre as are reported to-day ly speak for themselves. Along with the extension of tho Allied lines in Greece, it is stated that reinforcements are still rapidly pouring into Salonika, and in addition to tho Anglo-French troops, there are somo 150,000 Serbians to be reckoned upon. Meantime- it is said that the Russian oEiensive on the southern front is being pressed with undiminished vigour, and that laconic communiques afford no guide to its real magnitude and importance. With this there are further reports' that Rumania i° likely soon to join the Allies, . and as regards Greece, at least no untoward development is reported. The promise of the situation broadly viewed, is nothing less than that the Allies may presently be able to inflict decisive local deEcat upon 'the enemy in. a theatre which he entered chiefly in the hope of ' increasing his strength and lengthening out the. war. The Germans and their Allies have allowed one opportunity after another to slip through their fingers in the Balkans. They failed to completely destroy the' Serbian army, and there is no doubt that their pursuit of the Serbs would have been more vigorous but that thev hoped to mass in overwhelming strength against Salonika T-Tow alao, liowovor, they failad, and instead of being tjUo atiaoKinfi

Ipa-rty, they are themselves more formidably menaced day by day. This obviously is a situation which promises to develop favourably, and is bound to do so unless some factor now unforeseen enters to alter the present trend of events.

Keutep. ! s correspondent at Salonika states that there have only beefl cavalry reconnaissances west of the Vardar, and that no new ground has been occupied. Unless it is of earlier origin, this must bs token as correcting the messages which have been touched upon.

One question yet to be determined concerns the number of troops Turkey can be _ induced by her chicf ally to send into the Balkans. Some limits arc already set to the possibility of reinforcement irom this ijttarter, positively by the Russian offensiyo in Armenia- and the Mesopotamian campaign, and tentatively by the project of attacking the Suez (Janal. Some allowance must also lib made for the necessity Turkey is under of garrisoning vulnerable points on her sea frontiers, a necessity the Allies aro in a position to accentuate by a policy of naval, or tsaval and military, raids, not necessarily involving the employment- of enj; very strong, force. At the moment interest centrcs in reports regarding the Suez Canal project because there is no doubt 1 that by abandoning this project Turkey could make a considerable force available for service in the Balkans. Such an army as Turkey could provide under these conditions would hardly avail to swing the balance of strength in Germany s favour if Rumania joined the Allies, but it might serve to lengthen out the' present deadlock for a- time if the Allies received no such accession of strength.

There are no such reports in hand concerning the Suez venture as can be considered conclusive, but advices from Switzerland state that the expedition has been abandoned, and that the troops are going to the Balkans. It is not easy to believe that so radical a change of plans has been effected as smoothly as is suggested. A different, and in some respccts more probable, story is told by the Times correspondent at Salonika. Djejial Pasha, he states, refuses to move against Egypt until at least 25,000 German soldiers and a large and well-found Turkish army have been made available. There are some reasons for supposing that the choice of alternatives thus presented'is very unwelcome to the Germans. As matters are shaping in the Balkans, they can hardly be in a position to organise the attack upon such a scale as Djeiial Pasha is said to demand. It does not follow that they are prepared to abandon the enterprise. Until it has been definitely proved empty, the Turkish threat against the Canal has a positive value from the enemy point of view, as detaining a very considerable force in dctencc of that waterway. It may have an equal importance in the eyes of the Germans as an aid towards retaining control of the military forces of the Ottoman Empire. The hope of conquering Egypt has been dangled before the Turks, and has undoubtedly stimulated them to patriotic fervour in the war. The movement against the Canal a year ago collapsed in ignominious disaster, but it was explained away as a reconnaissance. A more cred-

ible explanation is that it was in-

iVfded to create at diversion and to weaken the attack upon Gallipoli, and was planned with entire indif'fercnce to the fate of the unfortunate Turks sent into the arid wastes of the Sinai Peninsula. •

Nothing is more likely than that the Germans, if thoy had their way, would repeat tbo performance of last year. They cp,n use Turkish troops more profitably in the Balkans than anywhere else, but equally for the sake of gulling the Turks and in order to keep a British army inactive, it is iu.their interest to pretend that they still contemplate a serious attack on the Suez Canal. Their obvious course in these circumstances is to play for time by making an empty show of preparation, and in the final resort, if necessary, to launch some such feeble attack against the Canal as was made last year. If this is their policy, the stand Djemal Pasha is said to have

taken must have placed them in a serious quandary. He reigns in Syria • practically as an independent satrap, and is probably in a position to enforce the alternatives of a purposeful attack in strong force or no attack at all. As matters stand in the Balkans, the Germans can hardly decide otherwise ton to swing the reserve strength of the Ottoman Empire into that theatre, but it is a question whether the Turks will any _ longer fight obediently under their alien taskmasters if they arc called upon to abandon the inspiring hope of recovering 'Egypt-.

Though it tells of the direct defeat of an Arab raid on British communications and of a subsequent punitive expedition in which the raiders were further punished, news from Mesopotamia cannot bo described as all that one could wish. The fighting reported took place on the Shattal-Hai, a secondary channel which runs almost directly south from the Tigris, at Kut-el-Araara, to the Euphrates. A British reconnoitring detachment was sent north along the Shatt-el-Hai from Nazrich, on the Euphrates. It found.no Turks, but was attacked .by hitherto friendly Arabs, and that the fighting waj severe may be judged from the casualties. The British had 373 men killed and wounded, and the enemy lost over 300 in dead alono. Apparently tbe engagement was fought not far from Nazrieh, since the official report states that it was in returning to this' place that tho detachment was attacked. Not unimportant in itself, the incident is much more important as an indication of conditions generally in the Mesopotamian theatre. It is obvious that a great deal depends upon secure communications being maintained' behind the advanced columns on the Tigris, at Kut-el-Amara, and further east. A week or two ago it was officially announced that the country between Colonel Aylmer's column, on the Tigris, and the head of the Persian Gulf was tranquil. This meant that the Arabs, notorious turncoats, were believed to be well under control. The announcement was presumably intended to apply to the valleys of the Shatt-el-Hai and the Euphrates, as well as to the Tigris Valley, and evidently it can no longer be accepted as a correct description of tho conditions that obtain.

Whether the Turks have succeeded in working around Kut-el-Amara and. sending a forco down the Shatt-el-Hai is at the moment an open question, bufc they have at all events been able to set Arabs in motion against the British communications, and the raid roßorted is not unlikely

to be followed by others. The punitive expedition which was sent out' seems to have done good work, sur- i prising the Arabs and destroying four of their villages, but the Arab is an elusive foe, and even sporadic raids along the extended lines of river communications may do a great deal to hinder the effective reinforcement of the advanced columns on the Tigris, and therefore will tend to hamper the general development of the campaign. A considerable part of the available British forces in Mesopotamia is necessarily detailed to defend communications well in rear of the advanced columns, and a raid as formidable as that reported is a positive indication that the necessity shows no present signs of diminishing.

While the enemy offer of a separate peare to Belgium is authoritatively denied, reports continue to arrive of the persistent development by the enemy of his peace intrigues. It is even stated that the German Chancellery is opening a peace branch at Lucerne under the direction of Pkince von BuiiOW and other notables. A refreshing break is made from the drab monotony of ordinary peace talk by a Leipzig jurist, who has formed the opinion that upon the whole it would pay Germany better to make peace with her enemies separately than to conclude a general peace, because if one separate peace is successfully-concluded the remaining enemies of Germany will be under the necessity of accepting peace one after another when they cannot hold out any longer. This reasoning is flawless, but even a Leipzig jurist might have been expected to consider it superfluous to stress the advantages that would accrue to Germany if the Allies consented to form themselves into a suicide club. » » » i The hope to which the Leipzig jurist has given such artless expression of course represent® a serious German aspiration, and one against which it is necessary to guard. An answer to German efforts in this direction is to be, found in the evi-S clcnce afforded, notably in the circumstances of the French Prime Minister's visit to Italy, that the bonds uniting the Allies instead of slackening are being drawn tighter. The anhouncement made by M. Briand that England, ancl now Italy, have agreed with France to the creation of a supreme military council and a supreme diplomatic council indicated that great efforts are being made to secure that wholehearted co-ordination which > will best serve _ the common interests of the countries at war with Germany. Whether Russia has yet agreed to the creation of the international bodies mentioned does not appear, but there is evidence in a speech by M. Sazonoff, reported to-day, that in. Russia also the necessity of mutual faith and co-ordination is clearly recognised.

Heavy fighting is reported in both main theatres, of which no very definite result is disclosed as yet. There is the notable exception, however, that the French report the recovery of most of the trenches they lately lost south of the Somme. An exceptional stir of attack and counterattack is now reported, in which there seem to have been minor gains and losses on both sides.

'Lacking better material for its communiques, the German Admiralty has manufactured an important naval engagement out of an encounter on the Dogger Bank between a small German torpedo flotilla and four British mine-sweepers. The explanation given by the Daily Chronicle's naval correspondent of tho presence of German torpedoers at large in the North Sea is plausible. He is of opinion that they journeyed by night from Zeebrugge. That they were careful not to outstay their welcome when they reached the Dogger Bank is proved by the fact that they accounted for only one of the four mine-sweepers. The latter, woulch certainly be slower, even if they were all oil-driven merchant steamers, as the correspondent quoted suggests that the ship which was destroyed may have been, and the only explanation of the failure of the enemy torpedoers to sink all foav is that they were afraid to pursue or were themselves chased before they had completed their work.