PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2690, 9 February 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

A' real peep behind the scenes is j possibly afforded in the story from Homo about a German effort to make use of the Pope in inaugurating peace negotiations or a ' discussion capable of being turned in that direction. If the story is not true it has been concocted with remarkable skill. The Pope, it is stated, recently offered the Entente to negotiate with Germany in order to ascertain the condition of Belgium, but the Entente, expressing appreciation, politely; declined, and said that no negotiations were desired until Germany had been defeated. It is not suggested that tho Pope acted otherwise"than in good faith, but the comment is appended _ that Germany is authoritatively believed to have prompted the proposal, out of a desire, in view of her increasingly unsatisfactory position, to lead up to a general discussion on peace. Such a project would be typically German in its mingling of cunning and clumsiness. ■ The opening move is artful. The Pope not long ago rejected a proposal that he should institute an inquiry into German outrages" in Belgium, but ho could hardly be expected to refuse an opportunity of doing something to britjg the case of Belgium under discussion without being called upon to make any departure from his attitude of non-committal neutrality.

'At the same time, assuming that there is any truth in the story at all, the Allies undoubtedly did the right thing in refusing to be drawn. It is impossible to discuss the fate and standing of Belgium—the "condition" of Belgium hardly_ calls for discussion —without raising the major issues of the war. Of this the Germans are undoubtedly well aware, but; it is not at all unlikely that ttootould couatJic&jMth

matic triumph to draw the Allies into negotiation. Apart from its opening move the enemy, project may seem too hopelessly crude to have been ' seriously undertaken, but in all such underground activities the Germans are no doubt animated by a hope of discovering some such weakness in the bonds uniting the Allies as would enable them to secure an advantage. Even if their hopes in this direction are •limited they are not the less likely to put them to every possible test. _ We have the unimpeachable authority of a British Foreign Office statement, made only a few days ago, for the fact that the Germans are making ! planned- and deliberate efforts to sow dissension between the Allies, as well as to awaken and stimulate hostility to the Entente in neutral countries. Very shady diplomacy has a recognised place in the art of making war as it is practised by the exponents of Prussian kultul'. «'* » * To believe that Germany is eager to open peace negotiations to believe that she is almost \it the end of her resources in the war. A sensible view is that taken by an English writer, who considers that in the mass the popular agitation for pcaco in Germany, manifested in the summoning of the Reichstag before its regular time of assembly and otherwise, is not inspired by despair, but by a feeling that enough has been done, and that it is wrong to inflict a further drain upon the nation for the sake of additional conquests. In other words, the writer mentioned is of opinion that the demand for peace in Germany amounts to an appeal to the war lords to .be content with victories won and conquests achieved. This may seem to be a limited view, but there is really no very definite evidence to set against it. There has been a good deal of talk about starvation resulting from the Allied blockade, but much of it has been raised and circulated by the Germans themselves in attempting to justify their criminal methods of warfare. The somewhat unpalatable truth seems to be that the effectiveness of the blockade until recently has been materially impaired by the flow of supplies into neutral countries. Looking at the war with instructed eyes,-the Kaiser and his accomplices are • doubtless compelled to recognise that victory is impossible, and that ultimate crushing defeat, assuming that the Allies remain true to one another, is inevitable. But Ho expect the multitude in Germany to sum up the situation with equal insight would bo-- hardly reasonable. ' their eyes have been dazzled- iy the march of invading Germaii • armies, West, East, and . South-East. The terrible drain of German man-power and such privations as the blockade has imposed are no doubt telling thoir tale, but it is unlikely that any really insistent popular demand for peace will arise in Germany until the Allies have won some signal triumph in the field of battle or tightened and greatly intensified the effects of their blockade.

Attempts like that under review to inaugurate negotiations must be regarded-not as inspired and backed by German sentiment, -but as coming from tho war lords who are in a position to look ahead. They are anxious_ to. negotiate from the standpoint of conquerors while the semblance' of _ conquest yet remains. Any disposition on the part of tho Entente to meet advances of this kind would be calamitous. It would be equivalent to' a tentative admission of the enemy's claim ,to a triumph he has not in fact won, though the German people, to whom thinning defensive lines and gathering and growing enemy masses are phenomena dimly visible or not visible at all, very probably think otherwise.

Within the last day or two the Lusitania negotiations' have' looked like culminating in an acute crisis, but it would now seem that paper diplomacy is resuming its interrupted sway. The opinion expressed by Reuter's correspondent at New York that choice of words will not be permitted to 1 interfere with the negotiations, and other reports to the same effect, stem to imply that the American Government is prepared to recede from the demand it has hitherto pressed for a clear acknowledgment by Germany of principles consonant with international law where the conduct of her submarine campaign is concerned. _If matters are taking this turn it becomes more than over difficult to find a satisfactory interpretation 6f the bellicose speeches lately delivered by President Wilson. In fact a patched-up settlement with Germany over the Lusitania would go far to warrant an inference that Mr. Wilson is prepared' to go much further, at least in the way of threats, where the commercial interests of his country are concerned, than in seeking to protect and safeguard the lives of its citizens. .

The statement is attributed to Mr. Morgenthau, American Ambassador to Turkey, that he does not believe in the possibility of a cpnfliot between Germany and America. This is doubly interesting on account of the fact that Mr. Morgenthau is German bom, though, of course, a naturalised American citizen. In his capacity as an ambassador, Mr. Morgenthau might have been expected to maintain silence on the subject of German-American relations, and all the more so since he is _a native of the country against which his adopted country has serious cause of complaint. His reported utterance serves to emphasise one of the great difficulties by which the American Government is faced.

A/Line's Talawn. Iroin New York. It is An authoritative denial is given to the report that the Central Powers had presented an ultimatum to Rumania. The British Government, it is stated, has received definite information that the report is unfounded. This, of course, does not mean that the Germans and Austrians are not bringing all possible pressure to bear upon Rumania with a view to scouring her friendship or continued neutrality. To suppose that they were abstaining from a policy so obviously necessary to their interests would involve an that they had been strickcn with impotence But 1 the British announcement amounts to a reliable indication that the Central Powers are not yet prepared to go to extremes with Rumania. It is true that Bucharest remains open to_that kind of diplomacy which culminated in a German triumph at Sofia, but there seems now little reason to fear that Rumania will follow _ Bulgaria's lead. If she .were inclined to do so her continiAil delay in arriving at a decision/would be inexplicable, for it is the Allies and not the Germans and their associates who arc growing stronger in Uip. Balkans and immediately vela tod Tho &onie doroiaatiacc fact.

stamps the failure of the enemy .to press matters to a couclusiori with Rumania as the outcome of weakness. It is probable, at least, that they have abstained from presenting her v with an ultimatum, because they lack the force 'which would enable them to back up ail ultimatum with action. They are not likely to ba any better off in this respect a month or two hence than they are now. As • yet they are threatened only, though gravely threatened, in Bukowina and from Salonika. When the threats materialise an ultimatum to Rumania will be even more a scrap of paper than it might prove in existing circumstanccs,

Not long ago it was reported that the Allies had suggested to Grccce that it might be wiisc to demobilise in view of expected developments. It was obvious at the time that the suggestion left an alternative unstated: that Greece should instead of demobilising take that part in the war which she would have taken months ago had she faithfully Honoured her treaty obligations to Serbia. There is a report to-day which suggests that Greece possibly contemplates adopting this alternative. It states that King Constantine is calling up the 1892 and 1914 classes, of those living abroad, except such as are resident in Russia or the Balkans'. The Greek Army is already mobilised on a war basis, though it is likely that, some arrangement has beeii made to release men to carry on the business of the country during the late months of inaction, and if the report _ mentioned *is accurate the mobilisation is being increased by calling elderly and'youthful soldiers-to the colours, The reference to the 1914 class is obscure, however, since it might have been expected that this_ class would be included ift thb initial mobilisation. The exemptions mentioned are doubtless a matter of necessity. As matters ai'e shaping in the Balkans it is likely that Bulgaria would block the return of Greek reservists to their own country, and there is no convenient route by which such reservists resident in Russia or Rumania could return, save through Bulgaria or territory' occupied by Bulgaria.

At all events the increase in a mobilisation which already was almost comprehensive is distinctly suggestive. _ A further suggestion that Greece .is at length inclined to adopt a policy of action is contained in the report that she has demanded an indemnity from Germany for the Salonika air raid. That she has taken this action' is, of course, quite probable. As to the general position, however, it has to be recognised that news, from the Balkans at present is compounded of facts and fancies. On. the whole a definite disclosure of policy either by Greece or Rumania is more like--!y to follow than,to precede powerful action taken by the Allies on their own account.

There are more predictions of a great German offensive in the Western theatre, but actual news from that_ai'ea_ indicates as yet a normal continuation of artillery fighting in which the Allies appear to have inflicted material damage upon the enemy works. An 'encouraging feature of recent reports from the Eastern theatre is their indication': that the Russians are now using a powerful artillery equipment, much as their Allies are doing on -the op : posite front, to batter and weaken the enemy's line. There is mention to-day of work of this character on the Dvina front in the Baltic Provinces. _ At the other extremity of their line the Russians have gained a little ground on'the approaches to Czernowitz, but the conditions for the time being are those of siege Warfare. .