PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2689, 8 February 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Sooner or later, probably at no very distant-date now, the Balkan situation will take shape in action. Meantime there is- nothing for it but to accept such news as is available for what it is worth, remembering always that military preparations like 'those now going on in the Balkans are necesarily shrouded to some extent in mystery, - and that while matters are at this- stage absolutely accurate and detailed reports are not to be expected. A few salient facts such as the -presence of a powerful Allied Army at Salonika and the continued failure of

the enemv to attack it, stand undisputed," and must bo regarded as important both in theni:.elves, and, to some extent, as an indication ofthe general situation, Reports regarding Rumania, and concerning the position in Albania, arc of less certain authority, but as a wholo the news is consistent, and points unmistakably to the conclusion that the days d'.iring which the enemy will continue to hold undisputed possession of the Balkan corridor are numbered. It has been taken for granted for some tune that the Allies are rapidly maturing preparations for a powerful offensive. The news of the day is chiefly interesting as holding out a promise that they may take the offensive under much more favourable circumstances than at one time scorned possible.

Tiiere arc accounts to-day of sharp fighting in Albania, which is said to have in the Bulgarians occupying LI Bassan, a place in the heart of the Albanian highlands, some -SB miles cast and a little south of Durazzo. There is nothing to indicate that the fighting was much more than an affair of outposts. The main trend of the campaign and the removal of a great part of the Serbian Army have in any case much reduccd the importance of the Albanian operations. Presumably the Allies intend to retain a footing in the coastlands. though even this is not certain, but any further resignation by them of Albanian-territory would be an indication, not of weakness, but that they consider it unwise to split their availably forces for the sake of retaining it. With the enemy, as he is now placed, the argument against splitting force is also likely to weigh heavily. Weeks ago there was-much talk of ordered preparations by the Austrians and Bulgarians for an advance through Albania to the Adriatic coast, but if these_ preparations .are still in progress they are developing very slowly. The reported occupation of El Bassan is the first definite indication of enemy progress in Albania, exccpt in the extreme north, for many .weeks, and unless the mass of the campaign news.is hopelessly misleading, the Bulgarians arc in much worse case "now to undertake offensive operations in this minor theatre than they were weeks ago. It is reported, for instance, that French _ detachments have commenced fighting the Bulgarians,. presumably on the northern Greek frontiers. That- the engagement has yet assumed any serious importance is not suggested, but the mere presence of the Allies in Greece is a constant reminder to the Bulgarians that they have more serious work in prospect than the somewhat uncertain enterprise of attempting to gain an i extended foothold on the Albanian coast. The dispatch in which Mr. Crawford Pjuce speaks of the prospective descent of Austrian and Bulgarian hordes upon Albania was apparently written ■ some time ago, before the major part of the Serbian Army had' been removed to Corfu. As matters now stand, full employment is likely to be found for Austrian and Bulgarian hordes in stemming attacks from Greece and possibly from the north as well.

The battle, or skirmish, in Albania is, at time of writing, a soli-

tary exception in news which points otherwise to continued inaction _by the enemy in face of tlu mounting preparations of the Allies. This broad feature of the situation lends increasing probability to the stories current about Rumania—stories which indicate that short of some unforeseen and unexpected development it is only a matter of time when she will throw in her lot with the Allies. Definite information as to

the point to which the Rumanian mobilisation has been carried would be very interesting at this stage, but naturally enough it has so far been withheld. Yesterday it was reported .that men of the 1896 class '(reaching the age of 20 this year) had been called to the colours, but this cannot be taUen as marking

tho extent of the mobilisation. It is true that these men have been called up somewhat earlier than they would have been in normal course. Under tho Rumanian military law men . receive a . certain amount of preliminary training, at their home centres, between the ages of 19 and 21, and are called up on attaining the latter age. The summoning of the 1896 class, however, does not necessarily mean more than that Rumania is taking steps to increase her ultimate reserves' of trained men. It is most unlikely that all other available troops have already been called up. There is again a report to-day. that Rumania has massed a great- part of her mobilised troops (nine-tenths of the whole) on the Bulgarian and Hungarian frontiers, while she has effected no such concentration on her_ frontier adjacent to Russia. Reasons have been stated before for doubting whether Rumania would give so plain an indication of her intentions whilo her plans are still unripe, but the repetition of the story carries some weight. There seems, at all events, to be little doubt that- the attitude of Germany, Austria, and Bulgaria towards Rumania is one of deep and. developing suspicion and hostility. Reports originating in Rome _ about evidences of this attitude in the Austrian and German Press are supported by apparently independent news from Salonika that Bulgarian troops are being withdrawn from that front and sent to the Danubian frontier of Rumania, Austrians and Germans replacing them. The broad effect of current reports concerning the Balkans is to open a- prospect of crushing assaults upon the. enemy from both south and north, and it is the less likely that he is in a position to effectively meet _ such an onslaught since he is allowing week after week to slip by without making any purposeful attempt to eliminate the developing dangers by which ho is encompassed. It has, of course, a material bearing that the Russians have of late firmly grasped the initiative both in Galicia and Bukowina, and in Armenia. Action in the first-mentioned areas tends very definitely to limit the passage of Austro-Germaiv reinforcements into tljc Balkans, while the turn of the campaign in Armenia limits to an important extent the amount of aid which can be expected from Turkey.

A message just received indicates that the Central Powers are making desperate efforts to dragoon Rumania into submission, but does not carry matters to any definite point. Whatever may be true of particular details, the reported demands bv the Central Empires that Rumania should demobilise and furnish guarantees of friendly neutrality no doubt have some foundation in fact, and while definite developpjeaU are awaited) tba beat to.ason

for believing that demands of this character are likely to bo rejected is perhaps to be found in the fact that occasion has been found f ur framing them, it is tolerably _ certain that Rumania would not lightly have invited threats and hostility on tile part of the Central Empires, and that she would not have gone as far as she lias gone in a direction unpkasing to these Powers without being prepared to go further. One oi the. most interesting detail reports embodied in the group under review is that an advance upon Salonika by the Bulgarians is delayed because they require in the first instance explicit guarantees of Rumanian _ neutrality. If this is true, and it seems more than likely that it is, the Assumption is warranted that Rumania has declined to furnish such a guarantee under long-continued pressure. The Bul- - and their allies would certainly not have delayed to this late hour a demand for assurances of Rumanian neutrality. It remains as true .as ever that the bulk of the news points definitely in one direction. At the same time, it must be noted that one detail in these later reports—a statement that the Russians are daily advancing nearer to Czernowitz—is at variance with an official report to the cffcct that the Russians have repulsed a German attack on Bojan. This place is sight miles east of Czernowitz, and only a few miles beyond the Rumanian frontier. Meeting attack at Bojan the Russians have presumably ■made little headway towards Czernowitz for some weeks.

The importance of Czernowitz rests upon the fact that it is a key-position on the railways, by which approach must be made to Bukowina, and a renowal of the Russian invasion of this crownlancl, lying between the Carpathians aucl north-western llumauia, is likely to precede, or accompany, any action 'by Rumania in the war. * * # »

A point has been reached in the Lusitania negotiations which should apply, a practical test to the latterday sentiments of President Wilson, as expressed in his rccent speeches. Amcrica, in the course of the negotiations, has demanded two tilings: an indemnity for' the lives of her murdered citizens and an assurance that Germany will henceforth observe international law, and abstain from murdering other' American citizens. Germany, it is stated, offers an indemnity, and is willing to admit that "reprisals"— the term under which she sebks to justify the Lusitania outrageshould not apply to neutrals, but she flatly. declines to _ admit that the sinking of the Lusitania was illegal. She, therefore, arrogates the right to go on incidentally'murdering American citizens as a detail of her submarine campaign, which America,' in common with the civilised world, regards as flagrantly opposed to international law. If this is Germany's final word, President Wilson and his Government must either take action against her or admit that' American citizens are to be murdered at pleasure, so lonr as the murderer afterwards pays an appropriate indemnity. * » * »

The last ecfioes of the local attacks which the Germans recently pushed with so much determination on the Western front seem now. to have died away, and there is absolutely- nothirs; to suggest that tiic-y have achieved any material result. Correspondents confess themselves at a loss to guess the ptupose, but consider that there is ro reason to believe that his recent attacks prelude a general offensive. "?he,v aro set down as "purely local." In view of the Fokker scare, there is much reason for satisfaction in Sir Douglas Haig's announcement that 28 air_ combats on Saturday resulted in six eneaiy machines being sent to earthy wrrle only one British machine failed to return safely.