PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2688, 7 February 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

More speeches by tho President or the United States are not calculated to allay the uneasiness awakened by his recent utterance concerning international relations and preparedness. Unless the reports as they appear do him some injustice, his references at St. Louis and at Kansas to these matters are very mildly described as indiscreet. Mr. Wilson has discarded without warning the peace-at-any_-price principles to which he has hitherto clung so determinedly, and now appears in an entirely new role, not materially different at a surface view from that of a scaremonger. Politics may have something to do with the change, but the eccentricities of American politics will not in themselves wholly account for so dramatic a- reversal. Though Mr. Wilson would probably deny that _he over stood for peace at any price, the facts are against hini ; To all who are capable of forming a balanced judgment, the case of the Lusitania affords conclusive evidence on the point. Hiß change of attitude, at. a general view, is very striking. It appears much more so and infinitely more significant when particular and detail cicrumstances are taken into account. He speaks now of the imperative necessity of absoljitc readiness for war, implying that America at any time have to seek a remedy in war. _ The question therefore arises against whom the remedy is to be sought. There is certainly no clinching evidence either in or outside Mr. Wilson's speeches that his warnings are intended to apply to Germany. America had practically the same cause of complaint against Germany when Mr. Wilson was extolling the virtues of peace and assuring Congress that the need for military preparedness was not imminent, as ( it has now when Mr. Wilson is talking in fire-, eating strain about readiness for war. The Lusitania negotiations may have advanced a stage since Mr. Wilson mffide the quoted remark in his message to Congress, but it would be a poor tribute to his foresight and sagacity to suppose that he did not foresee their probable course, or at least make allowance for the possibility that they might fail to reach tho end desired by the United States.

It is true that when he spoke at St. Louis, the President named as a menace to peace the danger that commanders of submarines might commit an act which would set the world afire. This was presumably a referenco to German submarines, though it is difficult to conceive an act better calculated to set the world aire than the cold-blooded sinking of the Lusitania, but it cannot be accepted as providing that indication of the working of the President's mind for which the world is looking. Had lie spoken only of submarines in this connection such an indication might, indeed, have been provided, but at Kansas he said that the nation, meaning the United States,, must be ready to repel attack and avoid disaster. l'herc is no practical likelihood of Germany being able to attack America—axcept In Mia wi)..V of the nubm&i'iiw out. rages jrWcn have Jritiwrta failed to.

rouse America to action—cither during this war or for some, time afterwards. It therefore remains uncertain what Me. Wilson is really talking about. All that is definitely established meantime is the negative fact that he is not demonstrably talking at Germany. The possibility is therefore open that he may be addressing a warning to Great Britain. If he has no such thought in mind his speeches at St. Louis and Kansas must be bracketed with that delivered a few days ago as the most injudicious be has ever delivered. ■ They are remarkable in their Ifcllicosa tono as coming from a statesman of President Wilson's reputed principles and doubly remarkable since be cannot be unaware that the world at large will find no adequate explanation of such utterances in the relations between the United States and Germany, and will be apt to find an alternative explanation in the possibility that a crisis may. be threatened in the nego- , tiations between Britain and the United States on the subject of commercial blockadc.

A reported remark by Mr. Lloyd George that the work of those who .labour in munition factories "was now going to smash a way to victory" is welcome, though somewhat vague. It would bo doubly welcome rf it could be taken to mean that internal war production in Great Britain is being raised to such a point as is likely to make her entirely independent of American supThat this can ever bo the case is, however, somewhat doubtful. The production of war material in Great Britain has been increased to r, wonderful extent, but Mr. Lloyd George has himself laid it down that to supply the heeds of our Allies as well as our own is practically impossible. Despite some recent assurances on the subjerit, the possibility of an embargo upon American supplies is one to be kept in mind, in view of the strain in which President Wilson is at present addressing his countrymen. For instance, lie said at St. Louis that "most of the munition factories must bo put in a state of readiness." At its face value this may easily be read as an intimation to Britain and her Allies that the Washington authorities tan adopt this expedient for cutting off supplies without openly assuming an unneutral attitude in conflict with the earlier pronouncement c.f the President that it would be an unfriendly act for any neutral country to refuse to sell its_ products to any belligerent who was in a position to buy.

Ald that need be said about reports in hand concerning the Lusitania negotiations is that they throw no light upon President Wilson's preparedness campaign. In fact, they are so contradictory that they throw no light upon anything, At the end of last week it was reported that Germany was about to admit the illegality of sinking the Lnsitania. Now it is stated that Germany will in no circumstances make such an admission. Similarly a Dutch message to-day reports a revival of friendly feeling towards America in while one of the leading American newspapers is quoted as predicting an eafly severance of relations over the Lusitania dispute. News _ of this kind—one item neutralising another—serves only to emphasise the absence of any actual information.

The interesting statement is made in a late message from Paris that llussia has closcd the Russo-Ruman-ian frontier, "owing to the concentration and movement of troops." There has been no mention of any such action in the past in connection with the reinforcing of the Russian armies in Bukowina and Galicia, so that the possibility is raised that Russia may be preparing to make her long-expected entry into the Balkans by way of Rumania. The report, however, is unofficial. With one exception, no other outstanding development is reported in the land campaigns. The exception is a report, attributed to the Novoe Vremya, that the Turks have evacuated Erzerura. _ This is highly important news if true, but it needs confirmation.

Scare stories about German naval preparations have been fairly numerous of late. They are one of the by-proclucts of this time of intense strain and anxiety which of necessity precedes the mighty clash of armies expected in the spring artd summer months. The story of Germany's colossal preparations for a naval offensive which has Been published by an Italian newspaper excels its predecessors in ornato details. Soon, so the story runs, Germany will have torpedo-proof ships of a new type, "armed with 16i or perhaps 20-inch guns," and she. will attempt a .great naval ooup in the hope of paralysing the Allies' approaching offensive on land. Large demands are here made upon faith, not to say credulity. We are askeci to believe that Germany, which was years behind in the task of building a fleet fit to cope with that of Great Britain, has succeeded in building such a fleet during eighteen months of war. And this not by reinforcing hor existing fleet, but by creating a new one. Of course, such things are not to be believed. * * *

It would be very interesting to know just what Germany has accomplished in the way of new naval construction apart from the extensive additions she has made during the course of the war to her submarine flotillas. No very definite information on the point can be looked for until a naval battle has been fought or the war has ended, but it need not be taken for granted that the German naval construction yards are working at full pressure. Some ovidcnco to the contrary was supplied a couple of months ago by the London correspondent of the Manchester Guardian. He was commenting on the fact that two cruisers and four, submarines ordered by the Dutch Government were to be built under the supervision of Messrs. Krupp. It had been said that British firms were apparently ignored. The fact was, the correspondent stated, that British firms were approached, but owing to great pressure of work for the Admiralty they intimated that they were not in a position to render any assistance. If conditions had been normal, he added, there was very good reason to .believe that some of them would have taken on the work. As it was, the vessels were to bo built in Holland, according to German plans and specifications. He was told that several German concerns actually offered to lav down and build the ships in their own yards, as naval construction was uow\it an end on the Elbe, as well as at Kiel, Stettin, and other shipbuilding centres. As a. matter of fact, the correspondent further stated, no now work hi'.c! beqn unoortakan in foe months which cx-.j

plained why some of the steamship lines were now able to place contracts for merchant vessels with reasonable prospect of early delivery.

This account of conditions in the German construction yards must be taken for what it is worth. It does not seem very probable, but taken up as it is by a reputable correspondent, it is at least likely to be as near to the facts as scare stories about phenomenal naval construction. In any case whatever Germany is accomplishing in the way of now naval construction there is no doubt that she is being surpassed both in quantity aud quality by the Allies.

According to the Times correspondent at Bucharest, arrangements have been concluded for the sale to an Austro-German syndicate of 1,500,000 tons of Rumanian cereals. The transaction is not yet reported on official authority, but if it has taken place it to some extent reduces the significance of the recent deal with the British Government. Much more definite evidence would be needed, however, to warrant a belief that Rumania is now likely to adopt a policy unfriendly to the Allies. Of necessity she regards the present expansion of Bulgaria with jealous eyes.