PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2684, 2 February 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Though news in hand from the Near East leaves many things obscure, developments arc indicateddisclosed would bo somewhat too bold a word in the present state of information —-which deserve attention. At the broadest view the situation seems to be that the Allies are meeting with some success .in compelling the enemy to divide his forces before he has had time to develop any one of the several aggressive campaigns ,he is believed to meditate. At the moment there is no sign that either the Austro-Ger-mans or the Bulgarians are preparing to undertake the presumably arduous task of attempting to drive tlie Allies out of the Balkans. A Copenhagen message submits as an explanation of the enemy's present policy that no attack will be made upon Salonika until Albania has been conquered, but it is simply impossible to. believe thjit the conquest of Albania is considered more important than the elimination of tho formidable menace arising from the continued joresencc of the AngloFrench army at Salonika. At all events the Allied Army based on that port is still unmolested and coincidcntly the Mesopotamia campaign continues to hang fire, and the threatened Turkish • attack on Egypt has not yet taken visible shape. Now it is reported that the Turks • find themselves under the necessity of moving heavy forces eastward into Armenia in order to make head against the Russian offensive from the Caucasus. There was news yesterday, of somewhat doubtful origin, that the Russians had surrounde'd Erzerum, . and a later message, also published yesterday, spoke of ■ a Turkish concentration on a big scale for. action in Armenia and Mesopotamia. If there is anything in this news the question must arise whether the action of the Russians in Armenia- has not already to some extent deranged the enemy's plans. Various theories Have been advanced as to the true scope and importance of the Russian Caucasian campaign, but it seems evident that in the character- of a powerful diversion it is capable of serving a useful and highly important purpose.

Advancing upon Eiv.erum, the ■Russians are said to have rolled back a Turkish arjny numbering upwards of 100,000 men, and they are in contact with other enemy forces further south, in the region of Lake Van and between that area and the Erzerum district. Presumably, therefore, the total of the Turkish forces in this theatre must be considerably increased if the Russians are to be held in check, and even if Jhe introduction of powerful Turkish reinforcements results in a deadlock the Russian campaign may be amply fulfilling its present purpose. Unless recent and current reports are illusory there is a dawning promise of a not inconsiderable portion of Turkey's total available military strength being held in play in .this Eastern theatre, and such a state of affairs , would obviously bo in the highest degree favourable to the development of the Allied plans. Threats of powerful action by the Turks against Egypt and in Mesopotamia in themselves give no guarantee that' the Allies will not find themselves faced by the greater part of the Turkish Army when they take the offensive from Salonika. From the enemy's point of view the campaign against Egypt isqptional. He is as free to retain his troops for homo defence as to employ them in the Egyptian venture and it. is no doubt well within his power_also to light a delaying campaign with limited forces in Mesopotamia. But if the Russian campaign in Armenia and the Turkish counter-strokc to that campaign are developing on the lines lately indicated a material dispersal of the enemy's force is being compelled with some prospect of its being made, for practical' purposes, permanent. Developed to its maximum possibility as a diversion subsidiary to the prospective operations in the Balkans, the Caucasian campaign may conceivably hold something like' a quarter of a million Turks in plav. 4dding to this the Turkish troops engaged in Mesopotamia, a fairly numerous body r.vcn if the enemy abstains from a deter-

mined offensive in that region, there is promise of a very material lightening of the opposition' the Allies will have to overcome when they open their promised offensive in the Balkans.

Apart from indications that the Turks are finding it necessary to concentrate heavily on the eastern confines of their Empire, a good deal of uncertainty admittedly obtains as to actual position reached in these regions and in Persia. A passage in one of the messages which has been quoted made the statement that Persia will assist the Turkish Caucasian army. This prediction is in conflict with much' other news of recent date (including an unconfirmed report yesterday that she was joining the Allies), and seems to bo invalidated equally by the conspicuous success of the Russian military expedition and by the fact that the Persian Government was reconstituted not long ago on a Russophile basis. Intrigue and conspiracy of German inspiration still represent a force to be reckoned with in Persia, but that the Persian Government is cither willing or able to declare openly, for the enemy seems to be very doubtful. Setting aside this report, which for the reasons stated can hardly be accepted meantime, the most seriously-threatened section of the Allied forces in the eastern part of the Turkish Empire would seem to be the advanced- British columns on the Tigris, in Mesopotamia. Of these there is no further news at time of writing, but their position is certainly not made more, critical than ifc has - lately seemed by the necessity the Turks are apparently under of concentrating heavily against the Russians further north. Unless the enemy has succeeded in developing his Persian intrigue with unexpected success there should be no particular reason to fear unpleasant developments a? the war drama- unfolds in Armenia and Persia, but the jiositio'n of the British forces on the Tiirris is admittedly critical for tho time being, i * * *

A Rumanian envoy, an ex-Prime Minister, is reported to 'have gone to Vienna to demand territorial concessions for his country in Bukowina and Transylvania, and, according to a Russian report, Austria has met the demand in a spirit of hostility. This is interesting news. It rccalls the negotiations which preceded Italy's entry into the war, j though the circumstances are in I some respects different. 'Italy in advancing her claims on Austria relied upon a treaty which entitled her to compensation if that country interfered with the status quo in the Balkans, and Rumania does not seem to have any such jumping-off place to start from. Like Italy, ljowcver, she has claims to territory now in the hands of .the Dual Monarchy, and it is nofi impossible that she has taken an opportunity to assert them. On the whole there may be good reason for the threatening tone in which the German Press is addressing Rumania, and the remark of the Berliner Tageblatt thai Rumania's neutrality can only be guaranteed by the continuous_ success of the German arms looks like a very just summing up of the position. Indications are accumulating that Rumania is getting out of hand, from the Austro-German point of view.

An unnamed correspondent suggests that in their recent attacks in the Western theatre, which developed sector. by_ sector along the front from the Belgian coast, the Germans were testing the line until they found a weak spot whore they could push in ■ and score a local success, This is an explanation which explains nothing, and may be set 1 aside as absurd.. To suppose that the enemy commanders threw away men in a long scries of fruitless attacks for the sake of winning an inconsiderable local success at one point is much the same thing as supposing that they have been stricken with madness. On the other hand, if they are leading up to a serious attack, even.costly efforts' at diversion are quite understandable. Something has yet to be heard about the measure of success achieved by the Germans south ; of tho Somme, but there is nothing,' 4 meantime, _ to suggest that it is of material ({importance. v » * *

The point is made in one message that the'encmy is not displaying the disinclination to attack "which optimists had expected as a proof of his diminishing man power. This looks like stating a conclusion when no conclusion has been reached. A belief that the enemy is on the down grade where man-power is concernedmight be disturbed if he succeeded in launching driving home-an attack of major importance, but such attacks as have lately been' delivered prove nothing, and disturb no belief grounded on evidence. They are not easy to explain on any basis, but present indications are that the enemy has wastefully expended his strength without achieving any important result, and that he has failed to conipass any such concentration as might make it necessary to revise accepted ideas on the subject of his remaining man-power.

That the enemy has attacked, and that with desperation, as has been said proves nothing until the results of his action are apparent. Meantime it ccrtainly cannot be taken for granted that his action is an evidence of abounding strength. It may quite conceivably niean instead that he is leluctantly yielding to circumstances and squandering resources he would gladly hold in reserve. The possibility 'that the Germans may attempt another great thrust in the Western _ theatre has been Canvassed. There is no present evidence that they have such an operation in hand. Another possibility. is that the enemy may be acting on lines which were predicted in December last by the Spectator. The Germans, it- suggested, might take the offensive, not with any real, intention of advancing, but only with the ho{je of keeping' the Allies from preparing and executing a big "push" in the early spring. This looks like a distinctly plausible explanation of the activities in which the Germans have lately bceii engaged, and it would go far to account for the apparent absence of any such tendency to develop , a battle of major importance in a limited area, as might have been expected from the aggregate volume and intensity of recent fighting.

Expectations of renewed Zeppelin raids oil England are realised in the news that six or seven of the hig airships raided the Eastern Midlands on Monday, presumably during the night hours, though this is not stated at time of writing. According to the official report, the damage done was inconsiderable, so that thfi fleet employed on this occasion would seem to,have been mucb

less successful than the single- airship which bnmbardecl Paris on Saturday night. The Gorman report of the latter mid, it will be observed, speaks of "airships being engaged, whereas French spoke of only one. It is interesting, otherwise, as a notable example of that complete disregard for truth which not inirequentlj characterises German reports. The fortress of Paris wan attacked, it is stated, in reprisal for an attack upon the open town of tyeiburg. An attempt is thus made to rover up the fact that the attack on Fueibuvg was in itself a reply to previous German Attacks upon French open to.wns. No doubt the Germans will similarly denounce all future attacks the Allies may make in the way/of reprisal, but a policy of reprisals, effectively pursued; is none the" less likely to produce valuable results., German cities subjected to tho same treatment as the Zeppelins have meted out to the cities of the Allies will be little consoled by. assurances that they are the victims of criminal aggression and not of exemplary retribution. News from Paris confirms the impression that bombs of exceptional power were dropped in Saturday's raid. An unexplodcd bomb which was examined weighed two Hundredweight, and was loaded with .high explosive. Even the biggest airship cannot carry very maiiy bombs of this description.