PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2682, 31 January 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

An exceptional stir of fighting is reported on tho Western front, but it seems to be in the nature of a number of detached local battles, and if the Germans arc meditating a grand assault the events as yet visible can only be regarded as preliminary to the main attempt, and intended to cloak it. Whatever their ultimate object may be, tho Germans have attacked at many points, chiefly _in the middle and southern portions of the hundred miles or so of the Western front extending south from the Belgian coast. There has been a continuation of heavy fighting, and some new engagements are reported, in tho battle-scarred area between La Bassee and Arras, and'the most serious attack of all, as news in hand goes, was developed against a section of the Allied line south of the River Somme, which intersects tlie line about 90 miles south of tho Belgian coast. Hero tho Germans attacked on a front of a mile or two in extent, but their only gain, according to the official reports, was the capture of a village overlooking the Somme, 'and it is added that some of tho lost trenches have been recovered. Brief reports upon a scattered outburst of fighting such as tho last few days have witnessed necessarily leave matters more or less obscure, but there is nothing at present to indicate that the Germans have achieved any success mensurate with their efforts. In a majority of instances their local attacks appear to have been crushed at their inception. At one or two points, notably south of tho Somme and south of Givenehy, on or near the La Bassee Canal, they have gained a little ground, as they did a day or two ago at Neuville Sfc Vaast a few miles north of Arras. Even if they were in secure possession of the Allied advanced trenches they have captured here and there thsy are little better off, but the actual position seems to be that wherever they have entered the Allied line they are slowly being forced out again.

That tho Allied line has been penetrated at different points to a limited extent may look like an evidence of weakness, but it more, probably means that the Allied commanders have profited by experience, and also have now such an artillery equipment at command as enables thorn to turn their experience to account. It is no longer necessary to pit ■ men against guns, as was done, fo» - instance, in both the first and second Battles of Ypres, and in many another desperately-contested Migagemcnt in which the Allied line was kept intact at a terrible cost in lives because the enemy possessed and used effectively a pronounced superiority in artillery. The conditions of the fighting now in progress, as far as they are visible, suggest that the Allies are leaving their advanced positions thinly manned and trusting largely to a powerful artillery backing to keep their line secure. In these circumstances a certain amount of give and take in advanced positions is not an evidence of weakness on the part of the Allies, but an indication that they are conducting the war of positions under the most advantageous conditions possible. Throwing masses of infantry against a front largely defended by artillery the enemy is likely to come out badly when final results are reckoned up. Definite evidence that the Allies arc now plentifully supplied with artillery is an oven more striking feature of tho existing situation than the fact that the Germans are extending themselves freely in local attacks. Not only have many of _ those attacks bcon stopped by artillery fire, but tho Allied guns have simultaneously been busy punishing the German's on other sections of tho front, and such succcsses are recorded as the destruction of an ammunition depot in Alsace, and disturbances of the enemy's organisation elsewhere.

Since the Germans also have a very powerful artillery equipment it is no doubt open to them, when they are "attacked in turn, to adopt much the same defensive taetics_ as are now being observed by the Allies. Prospects of breaking their front and rolling hack their armies may seem as a consequence to be dubious, but it is, very largely a matter of relative Resources. The success of the Allies in their formidable task depends upon their being able . to strike a swift and overwhelming blow, and this involves, amongst other things, ability to mass such a. force of artillery as the enemy cannot equal or approach. A succinct account of Great Britain's part in preparation for this mighty effort has been given by Mr. Llloyd George in a statement to an interviewer, quoted in the cablegrams to-day. Having now 2500 factories, employing 1,500,000 men and 250,000 women, working under Government control in producing munitions, Britain, according to the Minister of Munitions, is satisfying not only the requirements of her own army, but is to some extent supplying her_ Allies, and particularly Russia. This' being' the position in regard to munitions, Britain has three million men under arms, and by the spring will have a million more. Mr. Lloyd Georof/s concluding remark is that we may make mistakes, but

will never givo in. It is conceivable that a mistake may be made in calculating the assemblage of force required to crush the Germans on the Western front, but it is tolerably clear that they are menaced as the Allies have never been menaced except in the very early clays of the war, and perhaps not even then, To those who look only at the surface of events, the fact that the Germans arc at present attacking, though not very powerfully, on the Western front, may easily convcy a false impression. " There is. in fact, no reason to doubt that the AUieft ai» easily -maintaining a sound defence, and at the same time concentrating and holding in reserve a tremendous _ body of offensive strength against an enemy who has reached, if he lias not passed, his maximum power.

A speech by President Wilson, ronorted to-da.v, is calculated to seriously _ disturb the idea that America is determined at all costs to avoid war._ Coming from a statesman who is cautious to a fault and accustomed to weigh every word he utters, the sneech is almost bellicose iii tone. Mb. 'Wilson not only denies that America- is committed to a policy of peace at any price, but is at pains to disavow the statement he made in his last message to Congress that the need for preparedness for war was not pressing. He has learned much meantime, he states. This, aud more that the President has said in the same vein, is interpreted by Washington correspondents as a- last warning to Germany that she must give satisfaction for the Lusitania outrage. The explanation is not plausible or easily accented. Controversy between the United States and Germany over the Lusitania case lias run cold without the satisfaction demanded by the former country being obtained, and it is somewhat difficult to believe that the Government of the United States is prepared to seek a remedy in war at this late stage.

Tiie fact stands that President Wilson has intimated in the plainest and most unequivocal terms that America is prepared to take up arms in defence of its national liberty and honour. This is a phrase of wide scope, and in a speech otherwise direct and pointed President Wilson has abstained from any definite application to his warning to any particular nation. For any internal evidence to the contrary it is addressed, therefore, to the ivorkl at large, and it is perhaps in this light that it should be accepted. The Government of the United States is in controversy with Co.imany at present over the submarine campaign, but it is also in controversy with Great Britain regarding blockade matters and restrictions on trade. Of the two the last-mentioned controversy seems to be invested with much greater vitality, and until cause to the contiviry is shown it may be as well to arrvptPresident Wilson's latest _ pronouncement as an intimation of universal application that there is. a limit to the extent to which l)>e United States is prepared to go in negotiation. IVar between Britain and America seems unthinkable, but some issues are now at _ stako in which their interests are directly opposed, and in these circumstances such a speech as President Wil?on has made cannot be regarded with complete indifference.

Tiie effect of a bald report that America has decided to exclude armed merchantmen from her ports is very much modified bv the fuller particulars made available in a later message. To take the action indicated m the earlier report would be an extreme step on the part_ of America or any other maritime Power, and more than ever extreme in view of the snecial circumstances that obtain in this war. Merchantmen armed for purposes of defence only have a more or less definitely recognised standing under international- usage, and denying them access to her ports America would be running counter to usage. She would also, though possibl.v to a minor extent, be playing into the hands of a nation conducting a sea campaign which she has herself denounced as illegal and a violation of international law. If merchantmen armed, for defence have wrought any material damage on German submarines the fact has not appeared, but Germany would undoubtedly prefer that her submarines should hunt an entirely defenceless prey, and it is impossible to imagine grounds which would justify America in assisting to meet German desires in this respect. _ In the revised and amplified version supplied in the later message the American proposal takes shape as an attempt to regulate the conditions of submarine war on commerce, but the lines upon which America hopes to proceed are not quite clear. The question. of the admission of armed merchantmen to American ports is only raised incidentally to that of submarine attacks on merchant shipping, belligerents being notified that their armed merchantmen may be denied such admission unless they subscribe to the prescribed rules governing the use of submarines. These rules are in themselves unexceptionable. They amount to the assertion of principles which Germany has consistently violated since her submarine campaign began.

Nevertheless the proposals attributed to the American Government are in some respects extraordinary. Germany has no merchantmen, armed or otherwise, at large, and may, therefore, be expected to turn an. eye of perfect indifference upon the American proposals. _ If any Power is really concerned it is Britain, since some of her merchants men trading to America are armed, and she Ims submarines operating against German commerce in the Baltic, but it would be, to say the least, a remarkabje procedure upon America's part to try to control British submarine operations in the Baltic in the manner suggested. The British war on German comnicrce in this sea has, of coursc, been free from the atrocities which have made the name of the German submarines a synonym .for infamy. It may not answer in every detail to the rules set forth in the American Note. But if America should seek to regulate submarine warfare under a penalty which has no force in the case of Germany, and would bear as a penalty only upon Britain, her act would be not so much one of neutral regulation as one of dircct and obvious assistance to Germany. As a whole, the American Note is something of an oddity, which needs some better explanation of its purpose and underlying motives than is .vet available. In particular it includes a- statement that the extensive use o£ submarines, which armed merchantmen are able to attack, raises a grave doubt if it jg lftftfl for, metati&fltmen to catr^,

armament. This passes understanding. » • * • , Matters in Mesopotamia appear be still practically at a standstill, though the interesting announcement is made that Sir Percy Lake, who holds the supreme command in Mesopotamia, has joined the .advanced relieving column on the Tigris below Kut-el-Amara. Apparently the, commander and his staff have made a rapid journey to the front. There is at any rate no definite suggestion that lie was accompanied by new forces to raiAforce the relieving column. The Morning Post, in an interesting sur'vey of the position reached, mentions that another British force is advancing along the Shatt-el-Hai. the waterway which connccts the Tigris and Euphrates, and joins the first-mentioned river at Kut-ol-Amara, and that probably a force occupies the Euphrates Valley to prevent a Turkish advance on Basra. If the column advancing up the Shatt-el-Hai is free to press on to Kut-el-Amara a welcome reinforcement should soon, be available In the advanced area of operations, but it is quite possibly as definitely allotted to the duty of protecting communications as the force which is believed to be occupying the Euphrates Valley. It is well known that the forces shut up in Kut-el-Amara and attempting to relieve that place represent only a portion of .the British army in Mesopotamia. The actual strength of the army is not known, but about sixweeks ago it was noted that the names of four divisional commanders had been mentioned in connection with the campaign, so that prcsuinablv at least four divisions were engaged. The force may since have been increased, and it is certainly being increased now by the arrival of Indian troops transferred from the Western theatre, but whatever dimensions it may attain only a limited portion of its strength' can be made available in the vicinity of Kut-el-Amara. Until the enemy is finally beaten a irreat part of the British force will necessarily be reserved to guard the hundreds of miles of river communications between Kut-el-Amara and the head of the Persian Gulf.