PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2680, 28 January 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

One of the great questions to be settled within the next few months of war, is whether the Germans are any longer capable of striking an effective blow in the Western theatre. It can hardly be 6aid that this vital matter is dealt with informatively in the current news, but it is touched upon in one or two messages which claim to throw some light upon the enemy's present intentions. From Paris there is a statement about greater enemy activity on tho Western front—activity which was expected to culminate yesterday, on tne Kaiser's birthday.. In addition, there is a reference to the position by the editor of Aeronautics, involving a somewhat novel explanation of the recent Pokker scare. The Germans, he says, concentrated their best aeroplanes on a limited section of tho British front, hoping' to drive off the British machines and effect a surprise concentration of reinforce- ! mcnts in preparation for a strong local offensive. This looks like a rather shaky theory, since abnormal aerial activity by the Germans on any limited section of front would in itself, be apt to expose the design they were anxious to shield, However, so far as they point definitely to anything, these reports indicate that the enemy is discovering his limitations in the Western theatre, and finds himself unable to | make effective headway in offensive operations against the strength which the' Allies now have at command. An opinion to this effect has been stated without qualification by some of the more optimistic commentators on the war, and they aro able to advance cogent evidence in support of their contention, but it must nevertheless remain an open question for some - timo yet whether the enemy is not meditating a final effort to strike a shattering and decisive blow in the Western theatre.

Some evidence of his inability to strike such a blow is to bo found i>i the ineffective local attacks he has launched recently in Northern France and elsewhere, <ind an important addition is made to title evidence if be has been foiled, as the.

editor of Aeronautics declares, 'in an attempt to develop a surprise assault upon the British front. But it is impossible 'to say with confidence meantime that the minor attacks lately delivered afford any true measure of Germany's remaining offensive strength, or arc intended to be more than preliminary to vastly more ambitious operations. The position is made more complex by uncertainty as to what margin of time remains to Germany in _ which separate concentration against one or other main section of the Allied forces is feasible and practicable. Perhaps the margin has already disappeared, for both Russia and Italy have carried out highly_ important offensive operations in the heart of winter. But a great effort for victory on the Western front, before the Allies have fully matured their plans for offensive operations in all theatres, seems to represent the one hope that may remain to Germany of improving her. position in the war. It is therefore riot at all improbable that she may presently develop an offensive in the West, backed by all tho power she can muster, and the probability is all the greater since abstention by Germany from such an effort would amount to an open confession of her waning strength.

One item of recent news which seems to deserve attention as an indication of enemy policy in the Western theatre is the report that the Germans have destroyed the Demplar tower at Nieuport. ' This tower, which afforded the Allies a good observation post, the Germans could have destroyed at any time for a year past. Major Corhigan,. who speaks from a personal knowledge of the locality under war conditions, is of opinion that the tower has hitherto been spared by the enemy out of a l;ope that they might ultimately be able to use it themselves. That they have now destroyed it he takes to mean that they-have given up the idea of forcing a way along the Belgian coast by Nieuport.

Another detail indication is thus given of relaxing offensive efforts by the Germans in the Western theatre, but such detail evidence, of course, is not conclusive so far; as their broad purpose is concerned. Abandonment of the hope of breaking through the Allied Hue on the Belgian coast does not of necessity mean that they have given up hope of piercing it elsewhere.

Eather wild talk is attributed to the Dutch newspaper Het Vaderland in commenting upon the tightening of the British blockade. This action, it declares, involves interference with Holland's lawful commerce with Germany, and may lead t'j a conflict" with Holland which would prolong the war. It can only be supposed that-this declaration is of German inspiration. To accept it as a representative expression of Dutch opinion would involve an assumption that Holland is' ready to take an almost suicidal risk for the sake of resisting a temporary abrogation of certain trading rights. The remarks about interfering with lawful commerce between Holland and Germany arc certainly lacking in foundation. A document issued by the British War Trade Department denies or minimises statements lately published about the volume of import goods which has been allowed to pass through neutral countries into Germany, but it is nevertheless undisputed that the British' blockade has erred on the side of leniency where control of neutral importations is concerned. Any doubt on tile subject would be resolved by the fact that measures are now being taken to tighten the blockade. Neutral nations, of course, suiter restrictions of trade in some directions as a result of the blockade of Germany, but these hardships are incidental to the assertion of rights which any belligerent is entitled to assert _ under the usages of war. Even if Holland were subjected to serious hardships as a result of trade restrictions it would not less be an act of madness on her part to take sides with Germany and against the Allies. It is a -.fact clearly recognised that the future independence of Holland depends absolutely upon an Allied victory in tlio war. One of-the main objects for which Germany' is fighting is an extension of her coast-line on th'c North Sea, and it is quite certain that if she were allowed to retain possession of Belgium she would soon take over the intervening coast-line held by Holland. _ With these admitted facts in mind it is quite impossible to believe that the wild words of the Het 7aderland reflect public opinion in. Holland on the subject of the blockade. if i n /

While there is no reason to regard talk about Holland going over to the enemy as raising any very serious danger, it is a fact to be kept in mind that, she is in a position to render incomparably greater services to the Allies than she could render to Germany. Holland is a gateway into Germany as Belgium was a gateway into France. The Allies will never attempt to treat Holland as the Germans treated Belgium, but if they can reach an understanding with Holland' they will be able to. develop such a flank attack as would go far to render untenable the fortified line upon which the Germans aro now established in the Western theatre. The Allies thus have every incentive to maintain the best possible relations with Holland. Germany, also, may, of course, be expected to spare no effort to win Holland to her cause, since if her efforts ■in th'is direction succeeded she would eliminate the deadliest peril by'which she is faced in the war.

Dr. Dillon is quoted in one cable message as saving that if the success of the Allies depended upon their exercising an intelligence superior to that of tho enemy tlie war might be regarded as already lost beyond recovery. There is perhaps no better proof of the limitations of British intelligence than the prevalence of sweeping statements of this kind which, as a rule, are quite incapable of. proof. Dr. Dillon's grievance, upon which he immediately bases the generalisation quoted, is an alleged thwarting of the Navy by the Foreign Office in the conduct of the blockade. This charge, much in evidence lately, is flatly and indignantly denied by Sir Edward Grey in a specch reported at some length to-day, and his denial is backed by a body of evidence much of which seems to have escaped the attention of such critics as Dr. Dillon.

Accounts which would bo very interesting if they carried more definite authority, are given of the development of the Caucasian campaign. Amsterdam reports declare that thf) '1 ui'lc;; aro h???vy .reinforcement* to Erzerum. "and tiati

the Germans are apprehensive that the llussiaus may invest that place as a preliminary to cutting the Turkish communications with Mesopotamia. Who says these things does not appear, but a very difficult and arduous enterprise by the Russians is foreshadowed. It will be time enough to believe that it is to be ujidortaken when the investment of Erzenim is seen to be an.accomplished fact.

It now appears that the report that the relieving column on the Tigris had made its way to within seven miles of Kut-el-Amara was inaccurate, an error arising in connection with the transmission of the official report. The relieving column at its nearest approach was 2.'i miles away from Kut-el-Amara. It may now oe _at a greater distance, but definite information on the subject is lacking.