PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2678, 26 January 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Both the Allies and their enemies are no doubt .working out definito plans in the Balkans and tho Near East, but current news tells very little about the' nature of these plans. Proof of tho uncertainty that prevails in the minds of thoso with whom the news originates is to bo found in their conflicting .theories. Thus the Exchange correspondent at Rome states that the expedition to Egypt has been abandoned by tho. enemy in favour of a campaign in Mesopotamia, with the Persian Gulf as objective, while the Daily Telegraph's Petrograd correspondent, who has. apparently obtained some first-hand information about rccent events in the Caucasus, is of opinion that the Turks will find it necessary to obtain reinforcements for that a,rea from Mesopotamia. Two theories directly opposed are thus presented, and it remains as doubtful as ever whether the Turks are really concentrating upon a determined effort to clear Lower Mesopotamia of the British forces by which it is now dominated. If they are, the Russian campaign in the Caucasus at once becomes in the highest degree important. It has figured hitherto as one of several minor campaigns on the confines of the Ottoman Empire, but if the Turks arc intent upon a great drive through Mesopotamia to the,head of the Persian Gulf, it is a material factor that the Russians are posted on the flank of the advancing Turkish armies, and therefore in a position to cut across their lines of communication. It seems a reasonable assumption that the Turks must deal effectively with the threat against their flank before attempting a drive south to tho Persian Gulf, but by the same line of reasoning the German-directed forces in the Balkans and the Near East as a whole must overcome the Allies at Salonika before attempting to strike further afield in any force. On present appearances the Germans and their associates are of a different opinion, but if they contemplate an ultimate attack on Salonika they are gaining nothing by delay, and if they have no such intention a very definite limit is set to the possible scope of their enterprises further afield, either in the direction of Persia and Mesopotamia or towards Egypt. Victories in outlying campaigns would be of little value to the Germanic Allies if their lines of communication through the Balkans were cut, and obviously their ability to defend these lines and keep them intact must diminish as their offensive campaigns extend or multiply, unless the Allies at Salonika have as a preliminary measure been driven into the sea. 1

Of this there is no present prospect, and the continued immunity of the Allies at Salonika from molestation is probably a much more reliable indication of the military situation, not in the Balkans only, but in the Near East, than anything that has happened recently, either in the Balkans or on the eastern confines of the Ottoman , Empire. Tho invasion of Montenegro, and now of Albania, and the indecisive success achieved by tho Turks in holding up the British advance in Mesopotamia, are not a very convincing evidence of the enemy's strength whilo the Salonika army remains unmolested. Concentrating in this region, the Allies arc maturing preparations for a powerful effort to strangle the enemy's Near Eailtern enterprise as a whole, and it is certain that he would eliminate this danger if it lay in his power to do so at_ any of secondary enterprises. His continued postponement of an attack upon Salonika does not, of course, make the enemy free to ignore tho danger threatening him from that quarter, a\id existing circumstances make it not less but more likely that tho presence of the Allies at Salonika will tluniiuaCo tlifi clyvaltipiiiaut.B of the. more ot less closely, related cam'.

paigns which now extend in various ramifications from the Balkans to the Middle East. All doubts on the subject would be finally resolved if it were known that the* Allies, when they make their move from Salonika, will be supported by a Russian army entering the Balkans on the north. Developing on these lines, the campaign within the Balkans would quickly overshadow the operations furthbr east, which at pitsent _ command chief attention, and it is perhaps much more likely that it will develop on these lines than that the Germans and Turks will be cable to carry out the offensive schemes about which there has been so much talk.

An interesting anticipation of developments in tho Balkans is credited to M. Vintila Bratiano, the brother of the Rumanian Prime Minister. Since the Entente Powers, ho says, cannot afford, even temporarily, to allow the Central Empires to dominate the Balkan Peninsula, they would have to reassert themselves even after the occupation of the greater part of Serbia, and thus repair an oversight caused by want of preparation in time. This would necessitate the use of large forces, if the action of the Allies was to be effective, and the Balkans would then become an integral part of tho European battlefield. It might be expected that next spring would see a large concentration of belligerent forces in Macedonia and Thrace. Such a development, M. Bratiano added, would give importance to the neutral nations bordering on the new theatre of war, and would render it necessary for such States to take up a position on one side or the other. Coming from a prominent' Rumanian, such a pronouncement amounts almost to a prediction that Rumania will enter the war when she is assured of adequate support, but it touches also upon larger and ever more important issues in a manner that looks convincing. The Allied concentration at Salonika is a visible and positive indication that M. Vintila Bratiano has accurately sketched the policy of the Entente in the Balkans, and since there are definite grounds for believing that the days 'of weak and isolated action arc over in the development of Entente-war policy, 't is reasonable to suppose that the Salonika army will not act unsupported when the time for action arrives. , • * * » At the moment no material change is disclosed either in the Balkans or further east. There are somewhat patchy accounts of heavy fighting in Montenegro, but, as little visible hope as ever of the Austrian invasion of that country being definitely stemmed. It is reported also that the Austro-Bulgarians ha v.! occupied Berat, about 30 miles north-east of the Albanian port of Valona, which is occupied bv tho Italians. Not long ago this w-mld have seemed serious news, but the withdrawal of the Serbian army and other recent developments have made it tolerably evident that the Entente plans, where Albania is concerned, contemplate nothing moro than a defence of tho principal ports and portion of the coast-line.

As ( regards the Caucasus, there is an unofficial report stating that Russian advanced cavalry has reached the defences of Erzerum, but this is belated news. A Petrograd communiqut, published yesterday, announced not only that Cossacks had chased the Turks into the Erzerum fortifications, but that the Russian artillery had begun to bombard the forts—a development suggesting that instead of being a mere cavalry r;vid, the advance is intended to lead up to the investment of the Turkish fortress.

Official news of the Mesopotamian campaign 'indicates that weather, as much as the Turks, accounts for the present stay in the British operations. A rapid rise in the 1 Tigris, attaining a maximum of seven feet at Kut-el-Amara, has made all land movement of troops impossible for the time being. In many places the fiver is bordered by sjvamps. and low-lying ground, and a flood-rise of this character would naturally oppose insurmountable obstacles to the passage of troops along its banks. With matters in this'state, General Townskend reports that he has sufficient supplies in Kut-el-Amara and is not being attacked., Prospects of the relieving column reaching Kut-el-Amara when the floods subside appear to be open. At the same time it is no longer certain l/tat General Townshend would not ere this have vetreated had the way for a retreat been open.

An absence at time of writing of further news of the German attack on Neuville St. Vaast, in the area north of Arras, indicates that the affair was a local battle which has produced no perceptible change in the general situation. So long as the Allies elect to stand fast on their present lines in. France and Flanders, they will be subject to such attacks. Even a pronounced superiority in numbers and. equipment cannot make them invulnerable at all points, though it should guarantee ,them amply against damaging defeat at any point. It may be in their power to launch a grand offensive, which would instantly make an end of such minor enterprises as the Germans attempted at Neuville St. .Vaast, but their strategy is gov-, erneel by more than local considerations, and their stroke is presumably deferred until their Allies in other theatres are ready to act in concert. _ Even in. existing ' circumstances it seems that the Germans were _ exceptionally fortunate in securing minor gains at Neuville St. Vaast. There is news to-day of another assault, upon Nieuport, on the Belgian coast,', in which they fared much less happily. Twenty thousand shells were rained upon the Allied position in the artillery preparation for the assault, but the assault itself, when it was attempted, broke down disastrously under the return fire of tho Allied artillery.

Fhom the figures of the division on the third reading of the Military Service Bill (which provides for the compulsory enlistment of unmarried men in Great Britain who have refused to enlist voluntarily) it would appear that its opponents are a diminishing band. The third reading was carried by 383 votes to 36. Nearly three times as many members voted against the second reading of the Bill, and the reduction is accounted for in part at least by conversions to the opinion that the measure of compulsion proposed is a practical necessity. Industrial trouble in opposition to the Bill would mean black treason by the men in tho workshops to the men who are ' fighting for their country il? OcJu, tfc tq hoped that Mb* '-wvo George is warrant

eel in his opinion that no such trouble is likely to arise. .

The interview with the Minister of Munitions, dealing with this ancl other matters, is in many respects impressive, and tends in some degree to modify the impression given by Mr. Asquith's recent statement regarding an inadequate supply of labour in war industries. That statement must, of course, stand, but Mr. Lloyd George is nevertheless able to declare that the British Army will soon bo one of- the best equipped in the world. The buoyant declaration of the Minister of Munitions that Germany will in a very short time feel the effect of Britain's determination to put her whole weight into the war is very wclcomc at a time when campaign news tends to intensify feelings of suspense and anxiety even in those who ontjJrtain full confidence as to the ultimate outcome of the war.

A notable success has been won by the forccj including New Zealanders, which is operating under General Wallace in Western Egypt. An Arab force was attacked in its camp on Sunday last, and defeated and dispersed after suffering heavy loss. Since the camp was situated only 35 miles west of Mersa Matruh, the railhead of the coastal railway, it was presumably a position of considerable strength, but only ttie bare facts mentioned are available at time of writing.