PROGRESS OF THE WAR
Nttiva of a determined German attack upon a section of the French line in Northern France (at Neuville St. Vaast, about four miles north of Arras) may seem to be at variance with recent reports which have credited the Allies with a position of definite superiority on, the Western front. On the facts as they are given in a Paris communique, however, the battle seems to have been of no very formidable dimensions gauged by the standard of past operations in the area in which it was fought and elsewhere in the Western theatre. The enemy gained some initial success, but he was met by a shrewd counterstroke which fobW him at once of the greater part of the ground he had won. Attacking after a heavy bombardment, the Germans carried some hundreds of yards of the French first-line Venches and reached the supporting trench, but immediate , counter-attacks cut' down these gains to a little over two hundred yards of trenches which had formed a salient, and therefore "a weakness, in the French line. This with a claim that the attackers suffered very heavy loss completes the official story as it has so far been told. The final result seems to be. to leave matters pretty much as they were. The Germans have won a limited success in a local surprise attack, but they must act upon a much greater scale if they hope to materially influence the fortunes of thn campaign.
Satisfactory evidence that the advent of the Fokker aeroplane has by no means made an end of the superiority of British airmen on the Western front is contained in the dispatch of a Reuter correspondent who has visited the headquarters of the Flying Corps in France. _He confirms the impression already given that the Fokker is a machine used only in defensive warfare, and while he does not pretend that British airmen hold an unquesticned command of their chosen element, 1 he _ maintains that they hold an initiative •which the Germans have not yet shown themselves .capable of rivalling. It has long been recognised that design and construction of machine are details only, though important details, in the complex conditions which go to determine air supremacy, but in any case the idea that the Fokker is an aerial marvel is pretty thoroughly exploded by the unvarnished account given of the exploits of a British battle-plane. In the course of a single flight it destroyed or drove to earth no fewer than four enemy machines, including three Fokkers, and the details supplied show that it was not only better manned and armed than its adversaries, but faster.and a better climber.
Another report to-day speaks of a heavy aerial bombardment of Metz by twenty-four Allied aeroplanes. En route they were attacked by Fokkers and other enemy machines, and ten actions were fought in the air, but all the units of the Allied squadron save one returned safely after performing their mission. The exception was apparently compelled to land not by aerial attack, but by the effect of artillery' fire. There seems to be no doubt that the Germans are making a more determined attempt to contest the supremacy of the air than they have hitherto done, but it is equally clear that the Fokker is very far from being the invincibk destroyer scare stories have credited it with being. * * K *
As news stands at_ the moment the two campaigns which take most definite shape are that of the Russians in the Caucasus and" that of the Anglo-Indian army on the. Tigris. In Mesopotamia matters are going, if not badly, at all events not well, but events in the Russian campaign,' some hundreds of miles to the north, afford _ a measure of compensation and impart an element of hope to a situation otherwise decidedly threatening.
Bad weather and opposing Turkish forces have brought Colonel Aylmer's column on the Tigris almost to a standstill for the time being, but against this is to be set the fact that the Russians, pressing forward from the Caucasus in pursuit of a beaten Turkish army, arc now bombarding the outer forts of Erzcrum. This news is contained in a Petrograd communique to-day, und it is noteworthy as indicating that the Russians are not out upon any mere cavalry raid, but are developing a serious campaign. As it bears upon ' the Mcsopotamian campaign the. thrust from the Caucasus towards Erzcrum promises to be something more than a diversion, and there is no ignoring the fact that Ht Icust it diversion in thoiy favour seems to be badly needed
by the limited British forces which are fighting at odds on the Tigris.
A much more favourable estimate of the local position in Mesopotamia- than is possible to-day seemed to be warranted at the end of last week. On Friday it was officially announced in the House of Commons that the weather, which had been a great hindrance to operations, had moderated, and that Colonel Aylmer's column was making headway, and was within seven miles of Kut-el-Amara, whero General Townshend is invested. It is now made known that on the very day of this announcementColonel Aylmer's column fought a fierce battle with the Turks, of which the result was indecisive, and in which both sides lost heavily. Bad weather prevented a renewal of the engagement on Saturday, and when Sir Percy Lake 'closed his dispatch on this latter date the weather was growing worse. It is plain that the official announcement of last Friday, upon which favourable anticipations were founded, must be jettisoned in order to grasp the actual facts of the situation. Instead of being on the move, with moderating weather favouring his prospects, Colonel Aylmer is shown to have been, at the end of last week, weather-bound, after having failed', to clear the enemy from his path in a day of hard and strenuous fighting.
To-day's dispatch, it will be noted, only partly covers the position. Colonel Aylmer is not many miles away from Kut-el-Amara, and in that place General Townshend has, or had recently, ten thousand men - under his orders. Yet apparently only the relieving column has been engaged in recent battles, Tfttre has been no word of fighting in the immediate vicinity of Kuti'-el-Amara, though General Townshend is in wireless touch with the forces down the river. This apparent inaction on the part of the garrison may seem strange in conjunction with the fact that the relieving column has evidently been fighting against superior numbers, hut it is very possibly a hopeful indication of the trend and prospects of the campaign. Conceivably General Townshend at Kut-el-Amara may also be held by superior enemy forces, but it is at least as likely that he is content meantime with a defensive stand at Kut-el-Amara, because! the retention of that place is deemed even more important than an early junction with the relieving column. ICut-el-Amara is an important advanced base, a strong defensive position, commanding sections of the waterways which constitute the internal ' communications through Had the British aim been a junction _ of forces and a fighting retreat, it is highly probable that General Townshend would pre now have sallied out of Kut-el-Amara, and _ the fact that he has not done so is a fairly positive indication that, in spite of the perils and problems in which the columns oq the Tigris are at present encompassed, _ the British plans in Mesopotamia are stilK of an essentially aggressive character.
From Athens there are stories of a great concentration of .motor-cars at _ Constantinople, said to be destined for Mesopotamia, and also of floating mines and submarine parts to be sent to Bagdad. These stories undoubtedly contain an element of fiction. The Tigris is a shallow river, not easily navigated by light-draught river steamers, and impossible for submarines. Mines might be of some use in a defensive campaign,, but talk of three thousand motor-cars suggests that the Turks contemplate aggression, on a grand scale rather than a defensive campaign. For the time being stories of this kind are best taken with a grain of salt. _ Even if the Turks are concentrating transport and other material at Constantinople in _the manner suggested, they may easily have some other destination than Mesopotamia in mind.
Developments in the more important Balkan campaigns may at any time transform the aspect of affairs in Mesopotamia, and the progress of the Russian offensive against Erzerum, as has been said, already imparts a certain amount of substance to hopes of this character. ■Pcssibly .the Turks hope that the fortified plain of Erzerum will present an impassable obstacle to the Russian advance, and it will be impossible to form any very definite opinion on the subject until the Russian attack has developed beyond tho present stago of an initial bombardment of the outer forts. Thus far, however, the Russians have pressed forward enterprisingly and in a fashion which suggests that. they are in considerable strength, and the^'Turks certainly cannot afford to ignore these developments and sacrifice the defence of Erzerum for the sake of launching' a powerful counteroffensive in Mesopotamia. As it is now taking shape tho Russian advance from tfie Caucasus is a much more formidable affair than the British movement up the Tigris, and it must be expected to attract a correspondingly greater sharer of the enemy's attention.
Looking generally at the position in the Balkans and the Near East it is to some extent surprising that the' Russian Caucasian campaign should be assuming its present formidable proportions. The keynote of all recent action by the Entente in these theatres has been concentration, and.from this standpoint it has seemed likely that the Russians would most effectively assist to promote the common purpose of the Allies by sending an army into the Balkans, through Rumania of otherwise, which would be able to cooperate with the Anglo-French Army based on Salonika. These considerations have not lost their force, but the fact stands that while Russian action in the Balkans is still in anticipation the Caucasian campaign has blazed into fierce activity. It is a state of affairs to suggest that it was not for nothing that the. Grand Duke Nicholas was sent to assume control in the Caucasus when the Tsar took over the supreme ; command of the Russian armies. Continuing to develop on its_ present lines the Caucasian campaign would reach very important dimensions, and open up prospects not only_ of an extended invasion of .Turkey in Asia, but of the severance of Turkish communications with Mesopotamia and with Persia, However, it is probably wise to regard visible developments of Allied war policy in the Near East as preliminary only, and as chiefly intended to derange the enemy plans and compel him to alter the distribution of his forces, and so fight at the greatest _ possible disadvantage in tho dflcisivo campaign, towards which events ars marchius.
All sorts of more or less conflict-1 ing stories are -still afloat about Montenegro, but there is a statement officially made by the Montenegrin Premier which seems to clear up all doubts so far as the leading questions at stake, are .concerncd. He declares that negotiations were opened with Austria,- after the fall of _ Mount Luvchen, solely with the object ( of gaining time, and that this object was realised. Austria, he says, was delayed for at least a week. This is satisfactory as far as it goes, but there does not seem, to ho any brighter, prospect before Montenegro than that a portion of her army may escape into Albania and so remain in being as a fighting force, though not in its own country, It is possible, but unlikely, that Montenegro may be saved by Allied action elsewhere in the Balkans acting as a diversion and compelling a reduction of the invading Austrian forces. Of local aid to Montenegro there seems to be no prospect at all. It is indeed a question whether the Allied reply to the Austrian invasion of Montenegro was not the withdrawal of tho Serbian Army from Albania which now makes it available as an addition to the strength of the aTmy massing at Salonika.
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Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2677, 25 January 1916, Page 4
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2,023PROGRESS OF THE WAR Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2677, 25 January 1916, Page 4
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