PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2676, 24 January 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Besides being of local importance, the success which is attending the Russian operations in tho Caucasus keeps the hope alive that the Allies and not. the enemy may lay down the- lines of,the great campaign which must soon take shape in the Near East. in the Caucasus, the Turks arc so muoh less able to concentrate (effectively elsewhere, and whatever | else may be true, it is tolerably clear that it is upon the Turks the Germans must mainly rely in their efforts to spread and enlarge tho area of the war. Every ground for'satis-; faction is thus afforded in the official news from Petrograd that the Russians in the Caucasus are still pressing forward victoriously. They have captured the town of Hassan Kaleh, 22 miles east of Ewerum, and cavalry continued tho pursuit to the outlying forts of Erzerum itself. The particulars given of enemy losses—lsoo killed and taken prisoner in the later fighting covcred by to-day's communique —indicate that considerable forces aro engaged. In addition to their thrust at Erzerum, the Russians have attacked and beaten the Turks more than a hundred miles further to the south-east, on the southern shores of Lake Van.

After all that has been said in official dispatches and otherwise about tho superiority of Britislj and Allied airmen on the Western

front, it is somewhat disconcerting to be told that tho Germans are not so completely ou.t-matched in the aerial arm as had been supposed. The subject, however, is ono tnat can be profitably discussed only upon the basis of official information and expert analysis of detail evidence, These requirements are hardly met in the news available at the moment, and it certainly does hot warrant a conclusion that the Germans have successfully challenged British and Allied command of the air. Some of the stories current j about the Fokker aeroplane, with which German airmen are said to be working wonders, are no doubt exaggerated and fanciful. _ Some of the accompanying; details are unconvincing if not absurd. In this category m.'iy be noted the statement that it is the habit, of the German aeroplane to wait at a height of 1500 feet and then mak'j a descending attack upon approaching hostile machines. An aeroplane, of course, has to keep moving at high speed all the time it is in the air, but, passing this point, to _ suggest that , Allied aircraft f habitually or even frequently fly over the enemy lines at a height of considerably less than 1500 feet (as the statement noted implies) is certainly not within th-> facts. On occasions Allied aeroplanes havo descended very low with a view to effective bomb-dropping, but in general they are under the necessity, owing to tho developed excellence of anti-air-craft artillery, of flying at altitudes to be measured in thousands rather than hundreds of feet.

It is stated also tbafc temporary weakness in the German aerial arm on the t Western front was caused by the diversion of aeroplanes to Galicia on the occasion of 'the ; great offensive m that theatre, and by the transfer of aeroplanes to" the Balkans in October. As it refers to Galicia, the statement may bo true, though it is somewhat improbable, but that the Germans weakened their aerial service on the Western front for the sake of the Balkan campaign is simply unbelievable. No one would have written such an assertion who was even dimly aware of the essential importance of aeroplanes to a modern army. « * * o The most comprehensive statement in hand regarding relative strength in aircraft comcs from Mii. H. J. Tennant (Under-Secretary for War). Though cast in general terms it is doubtless based on full information supplemented by expert advice, and it contains the important suggestion that such successes as the Germans have recently gained in tho air have been chiefly in the nature of defensive fighting. Mr. Tennant says that the British air service has given a good account of itself in duties of reconnaissance, and in offensive operations, and that if the Germans adopted the offensive and j came Behind the British lines wo had machines equal in speed and efficiency to the Fokkehs. This certainly tlooß Hot tlidt mattai's aye i as bad as is imDiied in gome messafwa,

lacking equal authority, which are published to-day... It will bo interesting to hear tho considered judgment of experts upon these late aerial developments, but as they stand they are essentially inconclusive.

Evidences of neutral protest against tho tightening Allied blockade and of a disposition to retaliate are to be found in the Danish prohibition of the export of butter and tho Swedish partial prohibition of the export of wood-pulp, the raw material of paper. manufacture. Sweden does not seem to have taken any very decided action, for it is stated that the prohibition applies only to chemical and not to mechancal pull?, and, even so, it is limited by provision for exportation licenses being granted. Chemical pulp is a special material used in the manufacture of the finer grades of paper and, to a limited extent only, by admixture, in tho manufacture of the commoner kinds, and in any case Sweden is one only of several supplying countries. These and other facts suggest that-retaliation on the lines indicated is more likely to work out to tho detriment of Sweden than to seriously affect the countries at whom it is directed, and an extension of the retaliatory measures' would _ presumably intensify _ these conditions, The Danish prohibition of butter export may be a more serious matter, particularly to Britain, but Denmark will certainly gain nothing by cutting horself off from her best _ customers, and is not likely to persist in such a suicidal policy. * . if >

- The most important reference to the blockade to-day comes, not from Europe, but from America. It is to the effect that the United States Navy Department has informed the Secretary °of' State (Mk. Lansing) that England has sufficient ships to enforce an actual blockade effectually and .without difficulty. This gives point and meaning to tho statement made a day or two ago by the New York World that the United States would be bound to acquiesce in such a blockade, and indicates that it was no statement of impossible conditions, but an anticipation of the probable courso of events.

From the exceedingly _ contradictory reports that are given of the disposition of enemy forces in the Balkans, it is evident that the aotual dispositions arebeing concealed with considerable skill. Just what further use Germany intends to makeof the Bulgarian and Turkish armies has yet to appear, but so far as the Bulgars are concerned, the story of a banquet at Nish is s'trongly suggestive of an intention of dragooning them into new activities and sacrifices on behalf of their German overlords. It is not to be supposed that'the Kaiser and Tsar Ferdinand met at Nish merely for the sake of paying each other high-flown compliments. The alternative is to suppose that these flourishes are intended to further delude a deluded people, and induce them to move a little further along the road to ruin. The sequel to the banquet and the speeches at'Nish may bea Bulgarian advance against Salonika, though recent news has given the impression that such an advance is not imminent.

Some real light appears to be castupon the trend of Rumanian policy by several items of news published to-day, and they all point in ono direction. The statement that byclections have resulted in the return of Ministerialists and the defeat of Germanophilo candidates speaks for itself as an indication of public opinion and popular sympathies in the most important oi the Balkan neutral States. Perhaps even greater, importance should be attached to the news that Britain has purchased £10,000,000 worth of Rumanian wheat. I't is at all events significant! That the wheat has been purchased does not necessarily mean that Britain expects to take delivery in the immediate future. Communications between Britain and Rumania, are at present blocked, except by long and roundabout routes through Russia, which are already overtaxed, and they will remain blocked until the Entente has won a decisive victory in tho Balkans. When matters havo reached that stage, plenty of Russian wheat, now blocked up, will be available, and this in itself is a reason for supposing that the reported deal in wheat with Rumania represents a political and financial arrangement rather than .a commercial transaction. Wheat to the value stated would amount in quantity to about 40,000,000 bushels. It, is most unlikely that Rumania has so much wheat in' hand, exclusive of her domestic supplies. She certainly has not if it is true, as was announced some time'ago, that she sold her last harvest to Germany. The most plausible explanation of the trans*! action now reported is that it represents a British loan of' ten millions to Rumania, with wheat of the next harvest as a security. •'"So regarded, it seems to warrant an optimistic anticipation of Rumania's future policy. Faced by such' calls as are now being made upon her financial resources Britain is not likely to make substantial loans either to possible enemies, or to neutrals who intend to remain neutral. A British loan of ten millions to Rumania, if it has been made, is a fairly convincing indication that Britain expects presently to greet Rumania as afl ally. Expectations of this character aro not always realised, but after their recent enlightening lexpcriences in the Balkans Entente statesmen are hardly likely to make such a blunder a-s the misapplication of such a loan would imply.

Apart from the results of the byelections and the deal in wheat, there is a message which purports to sum' up in its essentials the considered policy of the Rumanian Government. It is given by the Rumanian Correspondent of Paris Matin as coming from a- prominent member of the Cabinet. The rules which govern the transmission of news unfortunately preclude any final or definite test of a message _ of this kind. It may represent a semi-official utterance by M. Bkatiano or some of his leading colleagues, or it _ may be merely a fragment of fugitive political gossip, caught up and invested with greater importance than it. deserves. Ab it stands it is interesting, and this not so much on account of the statement that the decision of the Government, backed by national sentiment, is-: "No war, or war on the side of the Allies," as because of the concluding remark that Rumania's will only produce the full effect if thrown into the scale at the right moment. This may be only a little different from the statement, often made, that Rumania will enter the war when she is quite certain of being able to select the winning side, but it is different and presents a view of "the matter which tlaaervas goHgirfcration, Rumanian help may yet be the de-

termining factor in enabling tho Allies to win a fairly speedy victory in the Balkans, and the suggestion now is that Rumania is flaying a waiting game, not from motives of prudence only—though these undoubtedly weigh with her very powerfully—but from much the same motives as underlie the defensive stand of the Entente forces at Salonika while they are gathering strength and making preparations for an ultimate offensive.

Theue is no very positive evidence that Rumania is committed to a policy of this kind, but tho fact is not to be ignored that if she over contemplated an arrangement with the Austro-Germans she has to a very great extent missed her market. It may he argued that the Central Empires are still oager to secure Rumanian aid, and hope to tempt her with offers of Russian territory, but it is highly probable that Rumania repulsed the advances of the Central Empires at a time Svhen they were ready to offer her all that she is likely to be promised now and more. The assistance of Rumania from the time when thoy opened their Balkan campaign would have facilitated the whole enterprise of the AustroGermans. It might easily have made such a difference as to compel tho Allies to evacuate the Balkan Peninsula altogether. Since they must have realised more or less clearly what hinged upon Rumanian assist-: anco it must be supposed that the Austro-Germans bid high for it, at least as high p.nd probably higher than they can bid to-c|ay. . HowevfV sphinx-like her attitude may lie there is the definite fact to go upon where Rumania is concerned that she abstained from taking the side of the Central Empires when her aid would have been most valuable and would have commanded a corresponding reward, or promise of reward. This in itself indicates a probability that she will ultimately take the right side, and for what it is worth the published to-day supports an j opinion to the same effect.

The Russians have beaten off an Austrian attack upon an important position in Southern Russia, but with this exception there is littlo news from the main theatres at'time of writing. Much the same applies to the Balkans. Fighting has evidently been resumed in Montenegro, but complete uncertainty prevails as to the nature of the recent negotiations; this not because there is any lack of alleged news on the subject, but because it is contradictory in character, and therefore leaves matters much as they were. Though events on land in the Balkans arc Veiled, a hint or two is given of the nature of the activities upon which the Allied fleets are busily engaged. Submarine depots have been routed out and destroyed on tho Bulgarian coast, and one more is added to tho numberless proofs of tho long reach of the British Navy in the statement that a British submarine in the upper Adriatic destroyed an Austrian hydroplane and a torpedo craft which hastened to the hydroplane's assistance.