PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2675, 22 January 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Nearly all the recent newsjegarding Salonika has gone to indicate that an attack upon the Allied position is imminent, and anticipations of this character culminated in a prediction by a Paris newspaper that the attack would open on Thursday. An ontii-ely new turn is given to the situation by 'the statements of the Daily Mail's correspondent at Salonika. He says that tho Bulgars have destroyed several bridges as a precaution' against the Allies' offensive, and that Austrian and German

troops are lining withdrawn from the Monastir region and sent north. These reports, like the others received during the last few days, with which they are at complete variance, must await the test of time, but it is at all events established that the enemy is still postponing action against Salonika, and that tlie Allies are increasing their forces at that place. According to an _ Athens message transports are landing Serbian troops at Salonika, -and the position as disclosed is that the enemy is halting before a task which is growing more formidable under his eyes. It is implied, though not stated in so many words, in the Daily Mail correspondent's Report that the Austro-Germans are (under the-necessity of withdrawing troops from the Balkans in order to cope with the Russians on their southern front. No other explanation of the reported movement of troops northward seems to be available. A renewal of operations against Montenegro, for instance, would hardly warrant any material weakening of the armies facing Salonika, Current news does not definitely clear up the situation any more than the news of an opposite tendency which has lately been received, but tho continued postponement of tho enemy attack is a positivo fact, and one that must be regarded ai favourable to the Allies since it gives them additional time to perfect their defences and to build up their strength in readiness for an offensive stroke.

Somewhat contradictory reports are current regarding Montenegro, though the fact appears to be undisputed that hostilities against the Austrians have been resumed on all fronts. -A French official report, transmitted by the High Commissioner, goes so far as to deny that negotiations of peace with Montenegro ever occurred, and declares that the army never capitulated, and that the Kino is at Pocfgoritisa (about 10 miles from the Albanian frontier) with hi? troops, who are continuing their resistance. It is impossible to square the denial that negotiations were opened with earlier reports, but a possible explanation of this and other contradictions. is that Montenegro opened negotiations only as a blind, and in order to _ gain time. If this was the aim, it has apparently succeeded, but on visible evidence the position of Montenegro is still desperate. # * * *

A sudden change for the better is reported in Mesopotamia. _ The weather, which of late has seriously hampered the British operations, has improved, and the relieving column on the east bank of the Tigris is now within seven miles of Kut-el-Amara, where General TownSHENd is besieged. Prospects of an early junction between the two forces are thus reasonably bright, and they are made brighter by tho vigorous Russian onslaught upon tho Turks in the area cast of Erzerum, which was reported yesterday.

Uncertainty as to where tho enemy will strike the blow for which ho is said to be making preparation in the East opens a wide field of speculation, but a suggestion advanced by one of the Petrograd newspapers can only bo set down as an extreme hypothesis. It is of opinion that the* German High Command, is deliberately ' spreading rumours of a projected campaign in Egypt to mask the true direction of its meditated blow, which (it is stated) will be aimed at tho Russian Asiatic frontier, and the boundary of India. This presumably means an advance through Persia into Russian Turkestan and Afghanistan, with India for an ultimate goal. Whatever the actual intentions of tho Germans may bo in regard to the Near Eastem' campaign, and whatever aetivi.,tu* th<a, may. be nlaafluw fas tttoicJ

Ottoman allies, it is possible to hold with a great deal of confidence that they have no-such visionary project as this in mind. Already the Ger-man-Turkish lines of communication in the Near East are long and somewhat open to attack. Any attempt to extend the campaign as suggested 1 would make them very much longer, and correspondingly more open to attack, and they would lie through country in which enormous transport difficulties would have to he overcome, and which is more easily accessible to the Russians than to the Turks and tlric German associates. Though the main trend of the news in hand is to indicate an improving position in the Near East, it is not to he denied that some of the detail campaigns afford ground for a. measure of anxiety, but it seems impossible to credit the enemy with being so favourably placed as to be able at will to enounously extend ibe scope of his operations. » h «

He is menaced from Salonika and tfco and a Russian expedition is operating in Persia, and British columns on the Tigris. These looming dangers, great and less great, must lae obliterated, and in addition provision must he made '"or holding the British Army in Egypt in effective play, before Turkish armies, German directed, can be free to advance through Persia. The motive for such an expedition, if it were* deemed practicable, would be the hope of inspiring a great Moslem uprising, which would carry the war to the frontiers of India, and perhaps into India itself. This no doubt the Germans have had in mind, but experience up to the present time has shown that it is easier for Germans and Turks to map out plans for a Moslem holy war than to carry them into effect. In Persia, as far as can be judged, the flame of revolt is not spreading ' very rapidly, arid there is some ground for a belief that the Russians have the situation well in hand. What information is available goes to show that the enemy for the time being is checked in his efforts to extend his sway further cast.

It cannot, indeed, be said that the Russian forces in the Caucasus and Persia and the British in Mesopotamia represent a cordon enclosing the enemy, and preventing his further progress eastward. A powerful concentration of strength would'no doubt enable the enemy to penetrate Persia. But even if the possibility of the Russians organising an effective local counter-stroke is ignored, another consideration is likely to deter the enemy from using any large proportion of his available strength in such an enterprise. So doing he would materially simplify the problems by which the Allies are faced in the Balkans, and increase their prospects of launching and driving home a successful offensive. Unless recent news has falsified the position, the enemy has only limited forces at disposal in the Near East, after meeting the immediate demands of exist-

ing campaigns, and cannot embark upon any new enterprise without jeopardising his prospects/in these campaigns. The most he can do is to endeavour to foment trouble in Persia, and Afghanistan through his spies and agents.

The open character of the Rusbian operations in Persia is emphasised in an account from Petrograd of the adventures of a band of a thousand marauders who threatened the Russian communications in the EnzeliRssht region. Enzeli is a. port on the Caspian Sea, and Rfisht is a village some distance inland. These places aro about 250 miles east of the Turko-Persian frontier, but how nearly they were approached by the raiding band is not stated. The Russian retort to the raid was to cut the communications of the raiders on the Turkish frontier and afterwards surround and defeat them. "Defeat" is a suspiciously ' mild term in view of tho statement; that the marauders were surrounded, and it is perhaps a polite way of saying that they were exterminated.

An explanation of_ such features in the Balkan campaign as the continued inactivity of the enemy on the approaches to Salonika and the renewal of hostilities in Montenegro is possibly to be found in news of a powerful fiussian assault upon the Austrian lino in Bukowina, northwest of Czernowitz. The news is official, and may therefore be accepted with confidence. It is stated that a section of the enemy's position was captured and that five desperate counter-attacks were subsequently repulsed with enormous loss to the enemy. It should be noted that the attack was delivered, and the position captured, north-west of Czernowitz. Unless a mistake in cabling has substituted west for east this means that instead of being engaged on the Bessarabian frontier, as an Austrian report declared yesterday, the Russians have advanced their

lines considerably to the west and are in a'fair way to outflank the enemy forces holding Czernowitz. « * * »

Action by the Russians is not confined to Bukowina. The same communique states that they are pursuing the Turks in the Caucasus, and mentions the destruction of no fewer than 163 Turkish sailing craft on the Blaok Sea-.

Brief extracts from a "report by the New Zealand war correspondent, which is being published in British nowspapers show that the minor battle in Western Egypt, in which members of the New Zealand Rifle Brigade and an Indian force were engaged on Christmas Day, was more important than appeared at tho time. The enemy were dislodged at the bayonet's point from a donga, and the nature of the fighting may bo gauged, from the fact that the New Zealand casualties numbered 70. ,Why Me. Ross's report has not been made directly available in New Zealand does not appear, and seems to call for explanation. » * * * An entirely new version of the Baralong affair—in which Germany accuses the crew of a British cruiscr of murdering German submarine sailors in cold blood—is ascribed to the London correspondent of a Danish newspaper. He declares that it was not the crew of the Baralong but American muleteers aboard tho merchantman which the submarine had attacked, by whom the Germans were killed. In addition, he makes some pointed remarks about the nature of the evidence upon whieli the German charge is based. It is to be hoped that more will bo heard in this matter on official authority, -* ♦ . » • Winter weather no doubt accounts for tho immunity from air attack which London has enjoyed for some time past, but expectations arc row entertained of a renewal of Zeppelin attacks on a more elaborate scale j than formerly, and it is supposed that the ornimy will also employ Ljieavjf aeronlanes w the criminal.

work of murdering women and children and non-combatants generally. 'With these expectations there has arisen a renewed deniand for the air bombardment o£ German cities l>y way of reprisal.' When the subject was discussed in Great Britain some time_ ago the point was made that British and Allied aircraft can be more profitably employed than in treating German citics as the Zeppelins have treated Lonuon. 'J he infamous exploits of the giant airships are without military value, and the same would be true of Allied air bombardment of Cicrir.au open oities. It has been urged that while ample scope exists for a'.l available Allied aircraft in the work of reconnaissance, in raiding enemy depots and lines of communication, and in other purely military activities, it would be a positive advantage to the enemy that any of these craft should be diverted to the task of attacking open towns. With the great development and expansion of the Allied air services, however, this argument may have lost a good deal of its force, and it is not impossible that a reftewal of Zeppelin attacks on London may bo countered by sharp and effective reprisals.

An Australian proclamation prohibiting exports to the Netherlands presumably represents a detail in the more stringent blockade measures which are now being taken against the enemy, particularly in the direction of preventing, the passage of enemy supplies through neutral countries. Many months ago Britain was a ; party to an arrangement by which the Netherlands Overseas Trust was created to control tho importation of goods into Holland and furnish a responsible guarantee that they would not reach an enemy destination. It was reported for a time that the arrangement was working satisfactorily, 'but late developments indicate that reports to this effect were unduly optimistic, since Holland is one of the countries through which useful supplies have been passing in large quantities into Germany. .f i «

It is impossible to disagree with the contention oI The Times military correspondent that the failure of tho Allies to begin an offensivo simultaneously has given a great advantage to Germany, but the failure seems to have been mainly due to the lack of initial preparation to which they are only now rising superior. Hope that the Allies will presently be able to open a grand concerted offensive rests not on a belief that their high military authorities ?re slowly awakening to the value of coordinated action, but rather upon the fact that their armies and material resources are rapidly being developed to a point which should make powerful and concerted action possible. >