PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2674, 21 January 1916, Page 6

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

The announcement that Montenegro has broken off negotiations with Austria rather than accept the terms offered by that country seems to supply an answer to the aspersions some people in Italy and France are casting upon tho good faith of the smallest of the Allies. Unfortunately there is no reason to suppose that Montenegro's refusal of the Austrian terms is due to the opening before her of any new and better prospcct. To all appearance she is between tho upper and nether millstone. She is facccl by desperate odds, and hap little hope of seeing tho balanoe redressed in her favour. All that has been said about the unwisdom of the Allies attempting to succour Montenegro at a cost out of all proportion ,to the general military advantage to be gained must still hold good even if she clects to continue the war. That she should do so rather than make a humiliating surrender would argue a dauntless spirit, but heroism cannot overcome such a disparity of numerical strength and material rcseuyees R3 exists thy eu»« of l»ion^ '.tonfigre 4>nci iwr present encau^

The only hope for Montenegro if she docs resume hostilities is that early developments elsewhere in the Balkans, or further afield, may compel a withdrawal of some portion of the enemy forces arrayed against her. Unless such a hope exists it is to be feared • that the rejection of the Austrian terms means only that Montenegro is passing from one calamity to another.

Definite news of the Macedonian campaign is lacking at the moment, and a test has yet to be applied to the prediction of an enemy attack to open yesterday. A_ rather peculiar statement is credited to the Greek Prime Minister, in which he expresses surprise at the doubts of the Entente Powers respecting the policy of Greece, and declares that she will continue her neutrality, and keop her army intact "for the final liquidation." This looks almost like a threat to somebody, but probably it means only that Greece, if King Constantine and M. Skouloudis have their way, will keep out of the war until all doubts have been cleared up as to the way in which the cat really intends to jump. » * * •

At time of writing only patchy reports are available regarding the main Russian front. On the one hand there are neither official Russian messages nor enemy reports by which to test yesterday's unofficial reports which credited the Russians with_ important sains in Southern Russia, and on'the other there are, at the moment, no Russian reports to set against the Austrian claim, made in general terms, that the Russians have been defeated along the whole East ■ Galieian and the Bcssarabian front, towards Czernowitz. A later Austrian message, however, reports a renewed battle north-east of Czernowitz, and though the general situation remains ouscure, some evidence is thns furnished that the earlier _ enemy report claiming a great victory was, to say the 1 least, premature. ..

War in the air looms large in current reports from the Western theatre. There have been Allied raids upon enemy depots and railways, and Sut Douglas Haig speaks of nineteen air encounters in one day, in which two British aeroplanes were lost and five enemy machines were "driven down." If this means that they were destroyed there is a heavy balance in favour of the British airmen. News in hand tells of no important development in the campaign, but an Allied War Council at London,' attended by the French Prime Minister and some of his colleagues and naval and military officers, serves as a reminder that events of the highest importance may not now 1m long delayed.

A remarkable story of stupid recklessness displayed by German troops on a section'of the Western front is told in a London message. It is stated that they rose up from their trenches, apparently in considerable numbers, to watch the effect of their artillery fire upon an aeroplane which had been brought down behind the British lines. So exposed they were swept from their parapets by machine-gun fire. Minor instances of« this sort of thing are no doubt fairly common, but the terms of the report under review indicate that a considerable number of Germans exposed themselves to pointblank fire a-nd paid the penalty.. This would imply an extraordinary failure of discipline and a lack of training on the parf. of the troops concerned. Unless the story is exaggerated it affords pretty definite evidence that the Germans arc holding some sections of their Western front with raw and poorly-trained troops.

An official intimation that atrocious weather in Mesopotamia has stopped all progress for the time being is bad news to the extent that it leaves the possibility open that, .the Turks may bring up heavy reinforcements before the British forces at present separated are able to join hands. _ However, it is possible that the rains which are hindering profress on the approaches to Kut-el-.mara will have a similar effect 'in the country further north and obstruct any movements the Turks have under way as well as those of tho British columns on the Tigris. Meantime good news continues to come through of the Russian campaign in the Caucasus, which has an intimate bearing upon the British operations in Mesopotamia. A Petrograd communique, reports the capture of twelve Turkish guns, with a large quantity of munitions, and the annihilation of entire enemy regiments. This should mean a-state of affairs in the Caucasus which will compel the Turks to divert reinforcements to that theatre, from Mesopotamia or elsewhere.

From a more detailed official report just received it would appear that the Russians have inflicted a heavier defeat upon the Turks 'than the latter have suffered in the Caucasian campaign since they met disaster at Sarikamysh. A great battle has been fought in the area east of Erzerum, and the Turks have been dislodged from strong positions along a front of sixty miles,. and are reported to be at many points in panic-stricken flight towards the fortified plain of Erzerum. The Russians have occupied the town of Koprykoi, 30 miles east of Erzerum and about midway between that place and the Russo-Turkish frontier. This implies a considerable advan®. Sooner or later the Russian campaign in and from the Caucasus will no _ doubt develop into an extended invasion of Turkish territory. It cannot be taken for granted that such a development is in immediate prospect. In all- likelihood a full-powered offensive in this region will synchronise with similar action in the more important Near Eastern theatres. But even if it Joes not for a time materially extend beyond its present limits, this vigorous thrust towards Erzerum should serve a most valuable purpose in relieving pressure in Mesopotamia.

The recruiting campaign in Great Britain, of which tho Compulsion Bill is now the central feature, continues to develop step by step with no indication that any serious hitch has arisen or is ljkcly to arise. Labour opposition has not by any means been completely overcome, but a decision by the South Wales mmprs to support a resolution at the pending Labour Party Conference summoning Labour members of the Cabinet to withdraw is not altogether bad news. It shows, at any rate, that extremists in the Labour ranks instead of being in n position to directi,v attack the Bill, find it nccessary in the first instance to attack the leading members of their own party who support the Bill. >Vitb"umt.lm , » is thin, sUitc Luitij ,Jseeby, -and his Committee have ro;

opened their voluntary recruiting campaign, contemplating a vigorous effort to secure the enlistment of all eligible men. Provided "it does not imply any alliance with the Compulsion Bill, a point on which assurances have been given, there is no serious objection to be taken to this revival of the voluntary appeal. At the same time there does not seem to be any very clear distinction between compulsory enlistment under the Bill and the voluntary enlistment of men who will shortly be compelled to enlist under the Bill unless they anticipate its coming into operation.

An item of news yesterday indicated that Sweden might conceivably attempt to obstruct more efficient blockade measures adopted, or iu contemplation, by the Allies. Upon this particular point no further light is cast at time of writing, but there arc some references to the United States which go to support an opinion that the greatest of the neutral nations will offer no serious opposition to a more stringent blockade. The correspondent of the Daily Telegraphy at Washington thinks that there is a disposition in some quarters in America to welcome the blockade as the most effective way of ending the war. He says that the new Allied programme contemplates, a rigorous application of_ the "ultimate destination" docis to say, it contemplates effective measures to prevent useful supplies passing freely through neutral countries into Germany— and that such an object is approved in America, except by the GermanAmerican Press, which shrieks deliriously. The anger of the GermanAmericans and the unconcern of the rest of the American population are equally satisfactory, if they exist as reported, for they indicate at once that an effective blockade is possible and that it is not likely to be opposed by the mass of the American public. It hardly need be emphasised that it is far more important to the Allies to retain the goodwill of the United States than to remain on terms of friendship with Sweden and other European neutrals upon whom Germany may be able to exercise" her wiles. The hostility of Sweden and other neutral countries of Europe would increase the difficulties by which the Allies are_ faced, but a breach •ffith tho United States would open up much graver dangers. America is producing no small part of the supplies upon which the Allies rely to enable them to win victory in the war, and it would be a matter of. much importance if America should cut off_ these supplies as the result of a dispute with the Allies in regard to the regulation of trade with enemy oountries. Of course, America would in effect be cutting off her nose to spite her face, for she is making a very handspme profit indeed out of her munition trade with the Allies, and she could not discontinue that trade without very serious injury to herself. Still there is ground for satisfaction in the current indications that America is not likely to prove unreasonable in her attitude towards the increased restrictions upon trade which will result from a stringent and more effective blockade. A noteworthy item in this category is the statement of the New York World, a newspaper of high standing, that an actual effective blockade would interfere with American trade, but in a lawful manner, and that whenever Great Britain is prepared to undertake such a blockade, America is bound to acquiesce. There is much room for difference of opinion as to what constitutes an "actual ef-

fcctivo blockade," but any discussion 011 the subject .must necessarily take account of the changes which have been brought, about by the introduction of modern weapons and conditions generally. . So much being conceded Britain and her Allies have no motive for shirking discussion of their action. ,

.« # * Rumours that delay in putting the new blockade plans into effect is due to reluctanoe on the part-of Prance, -and possibly Italy, to accept the British view of belligerent rights, though they ostensibly originate in America, are very possibly of German origin and inspiration. It is unthinkable, or ought to be, that the, Allies would waste time in disputing over niceties of international law as it applies to sea-block-ade when there is an obvious deficiency in their_ organisation to. be made good, which must -be made good in their common interests. It is not now a question of doing any new thing, but of doing a thing which has been attempted, and has not been done effectively. The general right of a belligerent to blockade an enemy and stop his supplies is recognised. Hitherto Britain and her Allies have been obstructed in ,the exercise of this right by the free passage of goods into Germany through neutral countries. The only remedy, and it is undoubtedly one that accords with broad principles of justice and international usage, is" to exercise control over the importations of neutral countries which by reason of their geographical position are liable to act as feeders to Germany. Control of ■ this kind can be resisted by the neutral nations concerned only if they are prepared to assert a right to act as agents for and in the interests of Germany. It will be time enough to believe that France and Italy are so blind to their own interests and the practical necessities of the war as to endorse such an attitude on the part of neutral nations when something worthy of being called evidence is submitted in proof of the fact. It will be noticed that the Daily Telegraph correspondent at Washington says it is recognised in America th/it the united front presented by the Allies will disconcert the German-Americans. There is in

fact no reason to doubt that the attempt to represent Britain as ramming an unpopular blockade policy down the throats of her own Allies as well as of neutral nations is a purely enemy invention. There is probably no very serious danger of the enemy being able to unsettle the harmony which obtains between the different members of the Entente group, but some of his efforts to this ond are enterprising and not lacking in an clement of cunning. It is reported, for instance, that German newspapers arc circulating the idea that Russia, should bo granted an outlet to the Persian Gulf with a view to removing her "organic motive" for war. The evident motive is to throw down

a bono of contention between Britain and Russia in the pious hope that they may betake themselves to wrangling over it. Fortunately i neither Britain nor Rnssia is likely to fall into such a booby-trap, but this particular move by the Germans is a single item only in a widespread and insidious campaign which might conceivably have achieved Us ptivpoao uf Bgwirift distrust Jwtween tns Allies bad not' its &u v

thors supplied them, in actions which speak louder .than words, with compelling motives. for working single-heartedly with the common end in view of overthrowing Prussian militarism.