PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2657, 31 December 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

. Various messages to-day touch interestingly upon the prospects of an Allied offensive in the Balkans. The most definite news in this category comes from Bucharest, via Rome, and declares that the Tsar has arrived in Bessarabia to inspect the Russian army concentrated on the Rumanian frontier, and that a Russian offensive is believed to be imminent. If it could be accepted without question, this would imply nothing less than that a general and ooncerted attack upon the enemy by all the Entente forces in the Balkans is imminent since the Russians, when they act, are not likely to act alone. Practically identical reports about Russian preparations for an advance from Bessarabia were current weeks ago. however, and it is now obvious that they were premature. There are reasons for supposing that the report published to-day also anticipates ovents which may not take actual shape for some time to come.

The truth of the matter is that the probability of early action by Russia against Bulgaria disappeared when the Allies were compelled to retreat from Serbian Macedonia-. Prior to the retreat it seemed possible that a Russian diversion might enable tho Anglo-Frenoh force to retain its foothold in Serbia and strike further afield. It _ is' now recognised that this opinion was based upon an unduly optimistic estimate of the strength of the Allies, relatively to that 'of the enemy, and the stage their preparations had reached. In the new situation which has been created, neither the Russians nor the AngloFrench and other sections _of the Entente forces have any incentive to take risks immature action. When the impossibility of rendering effectual aid to the Serbs in their own territory had been demonstrated, one great incentive to immediate action was removed. The partial withdrawal from Gallipoli still further sets the Allies free to make their preparations deliberately, and wait until they are in a position to strike an effective blow with'assured pi'ospects of success.

Tee keynote of the existing situation in the Balkans seems to ue that while the Allies are methodically building up their strength and preparing for future action, the enemy is powerless to seriously interfere with these preparations or strike a decisive blow. Impressive accounts are given of the Anglo-French concentration in the Salonika area, and the best proof that these accounts are not overdrawn is to bo found in the continued postponement of any attack by the enemy on tlie Salonika lines. Meantime the position in the Western part of tile Balkans, towards the Adriatic, appears to be equally satisfactory. Vague accounts are given to-day by a Paris newspaper of a Bulgarian- advance which is said to have penetrated deeply into Southern Albania, but tho burden of the news is that the refitting of the Serbian forces in Albanian territory ' is proceeding ajmco, without -Koviijuij molcntn-tion hi the eoomx.. It is to bo reman-

bored, also, that if the enemy attempts to press matters to a conclusion in the Adriatic territories ho has to reckon now with an Italian force of 80,000 men as well as with tho Serbian and Montenegrin armies. The reported Bulgarian advance into Southern Albania rests, as has been said, upon doubtful iauthbrity, but tho njaws that the Austrians have been driven out of Montenegro rests upon official authority, and it adds one to a number of indications pointing to a steady rise in Entente prospects in the Balkans.

Events in Montenegro have in fact taken an almost unexpectedly favourable turn. Some weeks ago the Austrians announced with a flourish of trumpets that thoy intended to treat Montenegro as Serbiahad boon treated, and they made their threat good to the extent of crossing the frontier at a number of and making material headway into tho _ country. Now they have been bjcctcd, not only from Montenegro, but from their own adjoining territory to the east. Reinforced as it is by a Serbian corps, the Montenegrin army must now be accounted formidable, and the; enemy is apparently left the choice of aooepting his defeat or detai. lg powerful reinforcements agairtt... Montenegro, which can probably be ill-spared from the other fighting areas in tho Balkans.

# » * One of the advantages accruing to Germany as result of her Near Eastern operations is the opportunity of drawing supplies of raw material from Turkey, but according to Sik \ * Al. Ramsay, who is reputed to be .one of the greatest living authorities on Asia Minor, Germany will derive less i important benefits in this way than is commonly supposed unless she is able to retain command of Asia Minor for a full year—a condition which on present indications is hardly likely to bs fulfilled. Sir' W. M. Ramsay's opinion is based upon accurate knowledge,, gained at first hand, of Turkey's natural resources, and the extent to which they 1 have been developed. The economic wealth of Turkey, he states, has been, and is, small. It can do little more than feed its own people, and most luxuries and some comforts are imported. ■ Its exports are of small use now to Germany for the - war. Given time to work the rich but largely undeveloped Turkish mines and . develop other resources, Germany _ could obtain very: important supplies, but there are now fairly good prospects that she will not long ba allowed to dominate Asia Minor. * # » * With the exception of a further advance by the French in Alsace, news in hand tells only of minor events in the Western theatre, but as regards the opposite main front there are Austrian reports of heavy Russian attacks in Galicia and further south. It ia stated that the attacks uniformly failed, but the statement is to some extent weakened _.by ail admission that the Austrian troops at ono point withdrew from their positions.' Russian reports, when they arrive, may possibly tell a very different story.