PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2655, 29 December 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

It will be as well to await Me. Asquith's promised statement on the result of Lord Derby's recruiting campaign before accepting the somewhat depressing reports-on the subject published to-day. According to these reports there is a sharp division of opinion in the Imperial Cabinet in regard to the measures ne- ' cessary to ensure a satisfactory muster of the nation's manhood, and it is even averred that a section of the Cabinet is definitely working for an appeal to the country. There is no visible authority for these statements, however, and they very possibly represent only floating rumours of a kind likely to receive more attention than they deserve at a time when public interest and curiosity are keenly aroused in regard to recruiting policy. It is, of course, no secret that the Imperial Cabinet includes Ministers who favour a resort to compulsion .ttad others who are opposed on principle to that course, but it does not necessarily follow that a serious split now exists on the subject of recruiting policy. Recent indications have rather been that a compromise has been reached or is in sight which should enable' Eho Cabinet to round off a working policy where recruiting is concerned.

On present information, Lord Derby's campaign has been attended by a large measure of success. He ha,s himself- suggested as much. _ In these circumstances, even if a limited problem remains by reason of the rofusal of a proportion of the unencumbered single men to enlist, the question of a general application of the compulsory principle can hardly any longer be raised as a practical issue. ' If compulsion is needed, it is needed only where a limited proportion of the men available are concerned. Any, remaining doubt as to the feasibility of a working compromise should bo removed by the pledge which Mr. Asotith has made' and' reiterated to married men, that they will not be called upon while eligible single men remain available. Mr. Asquith is not regarded as one of the Ministers who favour the general application of the compulsory principle, but there does not seem to bo any other way in which he can redeem his pledge, if eligible single men hang back, than by resorting to compulsion in their case. To all appearance conditions .have thus been reached in which Ministers who unreservedly favour compulsion, and those who are only prepared to consider compulsion as a last resort, can join hands. In the light of these facts it seems likely that the stories retailed to-day of a serious split in the Cabinet are mere scare-monger-ing, inspired, possibly, by die-hard conscriptionists to whom the suggestion of compromise is anathema, evep though it is a compromise that promises to work reasonably well.

The new turn given to the situation by reports transmitted during the last day or two is duo to the suggestion that anti-oonscriptionist Ministers are opposing the policy which would bo the natural outcome of Mr. Asquith's pledge, and are demanding a furthor period of grace for eligible single men who have declined so far to respond to tho voluntary appeal. Such an attitude, however, can scarcely involve any very firm or lasting opposition to the adoption of a definite recruiting policy, and reports regarding tho attitude of the eompulsionist section, taken at their face value, are much more disquieting. Yesterday it was reported that the Ministers favouring compulsion, in the event of Mb. Asquitii deciding that the proportion of unmarried recruits was insufficient, would demand an immcdiate general election. This implied nothing less than that the conipul- 4 fiionists, assuming the partial failure of Lord Derby's campaign, would set themselves to completely wreck the voluntary system instead of being content to see compulsion applied to the class from which an adequate response has not been obtained. Taking this line, tho compulsionists would provoke an embittered contest, which would make impossible such a compromise as now seems feasible, and in all probability would wife th« nation by % <?W. The position is modified and imjjrov.

Ed to-day by the announcement that Mr. Bonah Law, ono of the leading members of the compulsionist section in the Cabinet, has declared that a general election is unthinkable. This very greatly brightens the hope that a working co'mpromiso may be readied without undue strife or friction in the Ministerial ranks.

The suggestion is still to the fore that a section of the Cabinet is definitely working for an appeal to tho country, but reports of tn'is character in regard to the compulsionist Ministers are no new thing. Such reports have been periodically in evidence for a long time past, and tho only possible conclusion is that they have often been grossly exaggerated, and may run ahead of tho facts in the present instance. As long ago as September last it was reported that tlio conscriptionists in tfie Cabinet intended to force tho issuo of compulsion before the country within three weeks from that time; and again in October, immediately after Lord Derby had been appointed to conduct his great voluntary campaign, circumstantial reports were published that a big effort was being made in the Cabinet to secure the immediate adoption of compulsory military service. Whether or not the compulsionists actually contemplated forcing the issue before Lord Derby's scheme had been given a working trial, they evidently refrained from doing so, and the fact is worth bearing in mind at tho present juncture, wtien the suggestion is afoot that they contemplate an attempt to wreck the scheme at the advanced stage it has now reached, instead of consenting, as they presumably have the option of doing, to round it off in the way of working compromise by 'a limited application of compulsion. It is a possibility perhaps worth considering that the more extreme advocates of compulsion 'in the Imperial Cabinet may bo relying upon the threat of forcing a general election to break down any remaining opposition to the policy implied in Me. Asqtjith's pledge.

Whatever tho facts may be, thej will appear -definitely only when Mit. Asquitii has made his pending statement in Parliament, and meantime discussion oi thfe tone reported to-day can do no goucf, and. may do a great deal of harm, more especially if it has the effect of creating and magnifying imaginary difficulties. The serenity and confidence of the British public are perhaps not likely to be seriously disturbed by talk of acute dissensions in the Cabinet, but in this "war, and particularly at its present stage, much depends upon keeping, a firm hold upon wavering neutral nations, and tho imc v essi n ?i made in Allied countries 'by the trend and tone of public discussion in Great Britain must also be considered. No desirable impression is likely to be created either in neutral or Allied countries _by such statements as that attributed to Colonel Uepington, that it is doubtful whether even compulsion would give the number of men required. This is the sort of statement upon which the Germany will seize eagerly as material in fcheir dealings with hesitating neutral countries. # * * *

Taking news in hand as a guide matters remain at a standstill in the Balkans, a state of affairs not, altogether unsatisfactory from the point of view of the Allies. They are, afforded an extended opportunity of perfecting their defences at Salonika, and time is also of value to the Serbian Army refitting in Albania, with some aid and support now from the Italian expedition based on Valona, • Tho prospects of the enemy can hardly be improving while his forces remain halted, and this apparently is the position both on the Greek frontier- and elsewhere in the Balkans. There is news from Albania which makes it painfully evident tliat the privations and hardships of the Serbs are by no means at an end, but strenuous efforts are doubtless being made to relieve their necessities, and their prospects of regaining the condition of an organised £tnd effective force have by no means disappeared. There is no evidence at present of any vigorous effort by tho enemy to press through tho mountains to the Adriatic coast, and it now seems likely that the engagement between the Serbs and Bulgars lately reported in Southern Albania was in the nature of guerrilla fighting. # # #

The question as to whether or not the enemy is preparing to attack Salonika remains, on present showing, absolutely open. If the Prime Minister of Bulgaria (M. Kadoslavoff) could be taken as an authority, tho Bulgars, at least, have no thought of embarking on any such enterprise. He is reported as declaring that the campaign in Macedonia has ended, and that the Bulgars will "conserve their positions" on the new GrecoBu'garian frontier—that is to say, on the Serbo-Greek frontier. Practical experience has shown, however, that any statement by M. Badoslavon' is to be accepted,_ if at all, with very liberal reservations,- and the total effect of his latest declaration is to leave matters as they_ were, in a state of complete uncertainty. According to a German military critic, who is frequently quoted,. Major Moraht, the Germans arid their Allies- are under a strategic necessity of attacking Salonika, since, otherwise there would be no permanent safety for their communications stretching through the Balkans, from Belgrade to Constantinople. At an outside view, it seems possible that ■this strategic necessity may, appear less imperative to the Germans than Major Moraht implies. It is- not by any means certain that the Germans contemplate an attempt to permanently maintain the communications they have established with the Ottoman Empire. As matters stand, they are considerably to the good. Having replenished urkisli supplies they will very probably bo able to set tlie Turks in motion against Egypt, and since Bulgaria is hopelessly committed, the Bulgarian army has no other recourse than to continue fight,ing in the German interests." Bulgaria may decline to invade Greece, but she is bound to fight when attacked by the Allies, unless site elects instead to resign lier present conquests. It is an additional factor that Germany is now in a position •to obtain supplies of cotton, copper, and other raw material from Turkey. Being thus to the good, she may conceivably look with disfavour upon the task of attempting to dislodge the Allies from their strong base at Salonika. Much that she lias set her hopes upon in the Balkans is already in hand, tho adhesion of Bulgaria, "the replenishing of Turkish supplies of war material, and the obtaining of raw material. If Germany regards the presence_ of tho Allies at Salonika as constituting an immediate threat to her Bhlkan upmruuateßtionia- sho ban an obvious incentive to attack diem, with oi !

without Bulgarian aid, but if she considers that an Allied offensive in the Balkalis is not likely to take shape for some time to come,' the incentive is less clear. It is not improbable that a temporarv maintenance of communications through the Balkans is the object tho Germans have in view, and not the permanent safety, of thepe communications, which Major Moraht declares to be a strategic necessity.

According to news just received, the Bulgarians have withdrawn some miles from the Greek frontier, and are constructing. a ■ fortified line, while an Athens message states that General Castelnatj, speaking ..at a luncheon, said his only fear uv.s that tho enemy; might not atto® 'faie. .Allies at Salonika, and that if they did they would get as goo& a reception as when thoy tripcl to call on him at Nancy. These reports are not by'any means conclusive evidence that the idea of attacking the Allies at Salonika has been abandoned, but, for what they are worth, they point to the possibility that such a decision has been reached.

Fairly satisfactory accounts are given of the campaign in Mesopotamia. An official report shows that the British are still firmly established at Kut-el-Amaia, to which place they retired from the vicinity of Bagdad, and though they have recently been heavily attacked, they appear to have had decidedly thebest of the encounter. Attacking with a' whole division the Turks succeeded in entering a British fort, but were ultimately driven out again, suffering losses nearly four times greater than those of the defending troops. It is to be inferred, nowever, that the position at Kut-el-Amara remains somewhat critical. The initiative for the time is with the enemy, and he appears to be in greatly superior force.

An absence of news, at time of writing, from the main theatres, and a dearth of war news generally, is accounted for in reports of" a great storm in Great Britain and the adjacent sea areas which has done much damage to shipping and otherwise, and has had the effect also of interrupting communications.