PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2639, 9 December 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Generally speaking, reports in hand at time of writing show matters at a standstill in ' the Balkans, I which is equivalent to saying that j the facte of the position are hidden. [ There is one German report which til's-of a very important change in the situation, but it needs confirmation. Owing to a threatened development, this report states, the French have been compelled to withdraw from the Cherna-Vardar salieut, the position they havo lately occupied in tho: south-eastern oorner of Serbia. Any considerable retreat; in this region would create a serious position, but even if it is true the German report does not necessarily mean more than that the Allies have evacuated their outlying positions in order to occupy a better defensive line. It will be noted thac the report states that the withdrawal was induced by a threat of some kind, and was not enforced in actual fighting. , Apart from this brief, and as yet untested contribution to the history of tho campaign news available at the moment tells of n» other event in the Balkan land campaign than an Austro-Bulgarian attack upon the south-eastern corner of Montenegro. The Bulgarians are reported to have captured Djakova, | which is some miles '-inside the frontier. immediately north of Albania, and the Austrians Ipek, a little-l further north.

There is no further news at present of the promised Russian movement into Bulgaria, and until it has taken shape, or there is definite nows that Russia does not intend to act in this way, it is impossible to form any very definite idea about th's campaign _and_ its prospects. A powerful Russian invasion would no doubt quickly bring the enemy invasion of Montenegro and Albania to a halt, and by redressing tEe balance of strength it should also enable the Allied army in Macedonia to take aggressive action. So far as the Russians are concerned, it is a caso of waiting for events, but visible evidence seems to warrant an opinion that the development of the campaign in the immediate future depends upon Russian action rather than the policy and intentioi's of Greece, which still command chic f prominence in the-news of the day.

Tnr, interview granted by KiN.fi Constantine to the Times correspondent; at Athens, the opening passages of which were commented upon yesterday, has been followed up by others, in \vhich he further elaborates his position. The Kino of Greece seems, in fact, to have mudo o novel dopavfcuw), in Lha present crisis, from tho usual practice

of Royal personages, by the scale and freedom of his communications to the Press. Taken in the aggregate, the interview statements published yesterday and to-day are almost' garrulous. Tho essential point--, made by Kinq Uonstantine are two. He asserts in the most solemn fashion that Greece harbours no thought of treacherous attack on the Entente troops, and he objects to tho demand that Greek troops shall evacuate Greek Macedonia, in the region of the Salonika railway. The assurance that Greece will in no case attack the Entente troops is not to be lightly set aside. It can be disregarded only on tho assumption that King Constantine is meditating almost unimaginable perfidy. As to the objection taken bjy the Kins to _ the evacuation of ureek territory it may not be entirely unwarranted. He expresses a fear that the Allies may be driven back into Greece, and tha.t the population of Greek Jilacedonia may Men be left unprotected against Bulgarian comitdjas.

Kino Constantine's statements have not removed the stigma which rests upon Greece as a result of her | abandonment of Serbia and of necessity _ Greece remains an object of suspicion. It is difficult in the circumstances to consider the obstacles King Constantine is placing in the path of the Entente apart from ; the suspicions of his honesty of purpose occasioned by his past aots and policy, and fortified by current reports of the spread of German influence in Greece-. Nevertheless, it is pot an unreasonable demand thafrthe Allies should throw such a force into the scale as will ensure their retention of the Greek territory handed over to their keeping, and this apparently is what liiNQ Constantine is demanding. No _ doubt in weighing the position he is entitled to contrast the visible strength of tho Allies in the Balkans with that of the Germanic Alliance, and there is no question that for the time being the balance is tipped decidedly against the Entente. To tho Entente Powers a Russian advance into tho Balkans which will redress the balance'of strength may be a factor to- be reckoned upon with the utmost confidence, but it does not follow that they are prepared to take the Kino op Greece into their confidence on the subject, find if this is the position, a full and satisfactory understanding with Greece is, for the time being, clearly impossible.

Meantime there is no warrant for assuming that the tensioh existing in Greece reflects tho position reached in the Balkan campaign. On definitely visible evidence the position of the Allies is everywhere precarious in the Peninsula. What remains of the heroic Serbian army na-B retreated into 'Albania and Montenegro, and. though winter conditions are hampering the enemy b pursuit, they .cannot be regarded as removed from P e ' Obviously! the Allied army m Macedonia is not in itself powerful enough to relieve pressure on the Serbs and launch an effective counter-stroke. The situation demands tho introduction of strong additional foroes, and the estimate of tho Kino of Greece that the Entente needs an army of 400,000 men in the Balkans seems to be reesonably within the mark. ■ Very possibly, however, it, rests largely with Kussia to raise the Entente forces in the Balkans to the requisite strength, and though the fact may hinder and delay an understanding, with Grecce, it does not necessarily darken Entente prospects in the Balkans. Everything depends upon the Entente largely increasln% present forces, by a Russian advanoe. through Rumania or otherwise. Taking this course, the lintente will soon be independent of tho favour of the King of Greece. it any other course is taken it is plain that little is to be hoped from the Balkan campaign. * . * * ' _Theee is an enem? report to-day ol an Austrian naval exploit in the Adriatic which seems to have resultedl in rather heavy loss to the Allies, fhe story told is that an Austrian light cruiser, the Novara, accompanied by several destroyers, made a riying raid _upon an Allied base in the bay of San Giovanni di Medua (on the Albanian coast, just south of Montenegro), and sank fivo steamers and several sailing vessels which were discharging war material, and also a .trench submarine, the Presnel. Thanks to tho efficiency of the Allied Navies such incidents, with the Allies in the role of victims, have been avoided in the past history of the war but on this occasion the Italian Navy, which is blockading tjie Austrian Fleet in its ports, appears to have been caught napping. Apart f/o? 1 the unfortunate Fresnel, the Allies appear to have had no naval force in the immediate neighbourhood of the Albanian depot, but a shore battery bombarded the attacking squadron. The Austrian,account °i affair is to an extent confirmed by a French Pres3 Bureau communication which repeats a German °f «al report regarding the sinking of tho Fresnel. There seems no rea-. son to doubt that the Austrians carried out a surprise attack with some success, but such loss as was inflicted is comparatively light. The .Novara is a craft well suited 'to the work she did on this occasion. She' is a lightly-armoured cruiser .of 3500 .ions, with a designed speed of 27 knots, and armed with nino 4.1 guns and two 12-pounders. The Fresnel was a submarine of tho 1908-9 programme. Her displacement was 398 tons, and she had an underwater speed of about 8 knots and a surface speed of 12j knots. She had seven torpedo tubes.

Reports of the Austrian raid incidentally, disclosed tho fact that the French are lending assistance to tho Serbs from tho Adriatic coast. The destruction of supplies at San Giovanni di Medua very poss'ibly has a bearing upon the Austrian advance across the south-eastern fronii. er ene S r o> a region to which the Albanian port woull serve as a convenient baso.

An official report admits that tho Germans m recent attacks gained some of the Allied advanced trpnehes P" Cham l>agne front > but is added that counter-attacks resulted in .the recovery of a great part of the lost trenches. There is a story from Amsterdam that tho Germans havo been massing troops in Belgium for eight days, and that an attempted coup do main is expected. Tho Allies are no doubt in an excellent position to withstand any such assault, but it is not impossible that the Germans may attempt it. Even if they recognise that prospects of decisive success are meagre they may count upon a semblance of successful aggression in the Western theatro assisting their cause where wavering or doubtful neutral countries are concerned,

However, weath&r conditions making a German assault possible in Flanders are as likely as not to witness a powerful Allied assault upon some section of the German line.

It is one of tho unexplained/mysteries of the var that no formal declaration of hostilities has, so far as is known, passed between Italy and Germany. _ When Italy made war on Austria it was expected that war with Germany would follow as a matter of course, but the expectation was. falsified. It is true that some of the circumstances incidental ' w ' 11 " arose—tho Italian Ambassador to Germany and tho German Ambassador to Italy were, for instance, recalled to their respective capitals—but there was no formal declaration of war as between the two countries, and, apart from some unconfirmbd stories of German troops being employed in the Trentino ca::lv in t,ho campaign, there is no record of their land or sea forces having come into conflict. Not long ago, when attacks were made upon Italian shipping by a submarine or submarines of suspect, ed German nationality, it waß reported that Ifcly would probably dec are war on Germany, but tho Italian Government apparently satisfied itself, upon investigatioa, that Austria wan responsible for the attacks, and the anticipated declaration of war upon Germany did not follow. A possible explanation of this state of affairs is offered by a writer in the World's WorL His suggestion is that an undisclosed treaty between Italy and, Rumania compels the latter to go. to the assistance of-the former in case she is attacked by two Great Powers. So stated, the theory is weakened by the fact than Italy has not yet Men attacked by even one Great Power. _ She ma.de war on Awtria ?u o^a i n satisfaction of the demands she had addressed to that country. It is not impossible, however, that, some understanding exists between Italv and Rumania upon which war between Italy and Germany would have a bearing. The fact is well_ known that war between two countries is not alwavs or necessarily, preceded by a formal declaration, _ but this does not explain the nosition as between Italy and -Germany. It seems to be the general view that in their case the formal declaration is deliberately withheld meantime from some such motive as is suggested by tho writer mentioned, though he has not' 'necessarily hit upon the actual facts;