BENEATH THE BALKAN OUTBURST

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2632, 30 November 1915, Page 4

BENEATH THE BALKAN OUTBURST

WHO WIIL GAIN BY THE NEW SITUATION? PROSPECTS OF ENTENTE POWERS ■ AN AMERICAN VISITOR'S VIEWS Bouclc White is n well-known American Socialist. lie has just ~ returned from a tour in Turkey and the Balkan Peninsula, whither . ; .he Went as war correspondent for : tho Associated Sunday Magazines. Ho also visited tho Central Powers, as well as England, France, and Italy. BciDg a lato comer from . tho Levant, he brings fresh tidings of a situation that needs to be re-observed and readjudged almost hourly, so swiftly does the kaleidoscope there fall into new and surprising patterns.—The Editors of "Tho Outlook," New York, October 20. Tho gravitation of Bulgaria over on to the German side has struck something of gloom into sympathisers with' tho Entente. London's "Daily Mail" sheds tears oyer the "diplomatic defeat.'" And Clemenceau, of Paris, savagely derides the "dazed clumsiness" of tho Qitai Dorsay' which has crowned its-career of "a rare accumulation of errors." My tour of observation tells me that tho blow to the Entente Powers is far less grave than, would appear from a surface reading of the facts; yet, even more, that the Bulgarian move may turn out a very boomerang for the side to winch she has flopped, and may have an important repercussion on internal events in Turkey, notably tho Armenian horrors.

England needs a new gateway into Constantinople; and, if Armenia is to be saved, needs it quickly. Tho .Dardanelles gate is impossible as to any speedy forcing of it. The Gallipoli Peninsula is one tangle of barbed wire, one maze of interlocking trenches, while the waterway is fringed with cannon and torpedo tubes that sentinel the straits at every point. If England is to get to the Bosphorus in time to exert. any saving help on Armenian, she must find another route. Where can she seek it?

Besides Gallipoli, three other landing places are thinkable: tho Turkish coast to the south, in tho general neighbourhood of SmVrlia; the Gulf of Saros, on the other side; and Salonika. The first is, at this season of the year, full of hazard. On all the coast of Turkey west of the Marmora Sea there is no natural harbour. Erench commercial enterprise has built breakwaters here and there. But tho storm season for tho Eastern Mediterranean is approaching. What artificial ports are available could not' be depended upon. 'A tempest might duplicate in our era the Spanish Armada's disaster of three centuries ago. '.Hie Gulf of Saros is for the SRiho reason impracticable. It is from the South-west that the destructive storms roll, on which occasions Saros is a bellowing hell. Westward from Saros. no port is found on all the Bulgarian littoral. Dedeagatch is the nearest to such a thing, and I explored it in a sailboat. That port, is quite nothing but a stone bulkhead slanting out from a' straight shore. Salonika is, after _Gallipoli, the one practicable gateiyay into Constantinople. It is a, harbour of .spacious''dimensions.;''.-, '. But-Salonika is Greek territory. And uiitil Greece became implicated in the war the Allies could not consistently make use of her soil. ' Tho march of Bulgaria against Serbia., changed, that situation, and has given to the Allies the excuse they neoded for a Salonika landing. 'Greece is under treaty obliRations to defend Serbia if attacked by Bulgaria. The Allies, therefore, by landing troops to protect tho Serbian frontier below are assisting Greece to fulfil her treaty contract. The presence of Veuizelos in the Premiership gave the official' sanction. And the landing bccamo a "fait accompli" which no Cabinet reversal at Athens now can change. " ' . The Salonika landing, however, is not at the mercy of Athenian Cabinets. King Constantine is avowedly pro-Ger-man, and, if he could,"would give. to his 'treaty, with' Serbia the- respect:that attaches to all-"scraps of paper. 1 ! But lis is helpless—and by a compulsion stronger thau that of; an army • with banners. Greece'is in'tlie power of the' British; Fleet for her food supply. Greece is rich in mountains and poor in' wheat-fields. Her grain and a large I>ortion of her other foods come from,' abroad. Tlio British Navy could starve her in about) a. fortnight. And Constantine .-knows it.: Indeed, ,he and his were made to feel, it this summer in most impressive, fashion. I was at Salonika, in the latter part of August. Iho city was in semi-panic. It had on hand a bread supply for two days only. England, oil'a pretext, had ordered the holding, up of wheat transports. It was at the moment when the then now Cabinet was coming in, and had a diplomatic intent.

_ If King Constantine should persist m bis pro-Germanism he is likely to have on his hands a, popular revolt of some dimensions. For tho British Admiralty will most certainly blockade her.And what king can stand out when his people arc crying for bread? Greece has a navy. But it was intended, for use against Turkey, not agaitlst England.- At Pirea this summer I noted the size of her flet. There in. ffio harbour, of Athens, with the Parthenon's hill for a background, , rode her navy. There were nearly seven ships in all, most of. them the sizo of a modern destroyer'; and two were discards from the American navy. It is a safo hazard that Greece ivill enter the war on the side of the Allies whenever England gives the Word. And should Constantine try to prevent *it," it will bo so much the worsi for Constantine. . Will the Entente battalions get oil to the Thraoiaii Plain? No mortal-is wise chough to say." Too vast is tho arena, too intricate the forces at play, for any predicter to go beyond general tendencies to forecast' the to-morrow in detail. One can only sily. There are certain facts'that are trending towards an affirmative answer to our question. In the first place, I do not foresee for Germany an 'easy sweep down through Serbia. When I was ill Salonika six weeks ago, that port was athrob with activity—the disembarking oj war material and its reshipment to Nish and the Serbian front-. For a year that lias heen going on. Serbia, has mountain ranges that will oppose astern waII against the Teuton advancp. And' if the expeditionary force now landed shall defend the Salohika-Nish railway from interception, supplies will flow north to'her in abounding measure. This German swing southwards, furthermore, comes at an opportune moment for Russia, sinco it relieves the pressure on' her Poland front l , and will releaso not- a few of lic.r troops for an invasion of the Plain of Thraeo by way of the Black Sen, where the Russian naify is completely in control. It is easily possible that Russia Iwill bo 011 the Thrncinn Plain before tho Gtrmans arrive there.

In the second place. Bulgaria will not put into t'his present ivar the unanimity that made her so mighty in her drive against Turkey four years aye. Bulgaria is Slav. 111 this win- she will lip ; lighting a Sl.w Power, liuwia; a Power, furthermore, to which Bulgaria anv-d bur ot lpiu :i. nnllnii -Ij.ss iJih.h liftj; years pact, Ido not wisli

f I overpress this point. In opposition to 1 this 'blood kinship with Russia must, be set. economic alliance with Germany. 1 asked a business mail in Bulgaria what- percentage of Bulgaria's entire commerce was in German hands, 110 r answered "About ■eighty per cent."' While England'has been cultivating the lar ends of tho earth, Germany's economic expansion has been annexing tlio territories <!oiitinguous to her in Europe. And now, in her diplomatic triumph at Sofia, she is reaping a legitimate harvest. Trade follows the llag; but also, in the contrary direction, tjie llag follows trade. Indubitably, Bulgaria's present solidarity with the Central I'owers is popular with the majority of her people. But not with all. ,'And there is going to bo—yes, is already— a party of opposition 1 that will seriously clog her military ongoihgs. ' - A tln'rd fact is that -Bulgaria is not in shape for war, as she was four years ago. She has not recuperated from iier frightful losses in that tandem conflict. Said one Bulgarian to me: "Scarce a.family in all our boundaries but has a death or a cripple wherewith to remember.'the war price wo paid." And her financial status is even more desperate. At Sofia I met a Bulgarian merchant who has official coiuieotions with the Government as well as international trade relations. Knowing that livas an.American, he,approached me in'the matter of the possibility of a, Bulgarian loan in America. He informed me that his country would givo well nigh any price for such 'help; and 1 offered to make it financially profitable - for,me if I could open the way to such • negotiations.' Neither in men nor in money is Bulgaria what she was when 1 she surprised tlie 1 world by her swift triumph-.*'over'TurkoyV troops from Philijjpopolia. t'o the very walls of Con- ; stantinoplo. - ■.Rumania,'is likewise a factor with Which Bulgaria, will have to reokon. Rumania -will not take arms until sho sees which way the cat is going to jump ;- for her geography is sucli that she could bd suffocated in case of a Russiau or Serbian collapse. None the less, her attitude towards the Central Empires ' and Bulgaria is one of unfriendliest neutrality. • I journeyed one day from Bucharest over into Hungary. On t'lie train were Rumanians bound for Hungary for business purposes, with one of whom I got into confidential intlmaoy. At the Hungarian frontier, as We w'ere going through the mill of military and Custom-house examinations, suddenly my friend came to me with excitement in his tones. He said that a message had just arrived from the Government at Bucharest forbidding any citizen of Rumania to pass into Austria-Hungary. I asked him why. He was as much in ignorance of the cause as myself. The last I saw of him, as our train moved over t'lie bor. dcr into Hungary, ho and twenty other Rumanians were herded in a squad on the station platform, and Were prevented from stirring- by a Rumanian sentinel who held them at the point of tlie bayonet. I asked a German officer who was with mc on the train what was the meaning of it. Ho replied that war between Berlin and Bucharest was inevitable. "But," said I, "Rumania hasn't declared war on you, and ina-y persist in .her neutrality." "Thai isn't tho point," said he; "we will* do tho declaring of war. We need a path across Rumania in order to reach Turkey. And we will pass through or break through." Whatever Rumania decides, she will,_ in any case, bo a menace to Bulgaria, compelling the latter to detach large forces to guard the Danube frontier. . Ten days ago the ship I was to take from England for New York was commandeered, as we wero about to go aboard, for the transport of . British troops td'.the Mediterranean.' It. loft us stranded at Liverpool. Wo had' no recourse. Civilians in war time aro of small' account. And in this case the military urgency was easily understand, able. At present the landing of troops at- Salonika has for its purpose-the defending of Greek treaty obligations' in protecting Serbia against - Bulgaria's threat. But I predict that the expeditionary force of France and Engldnd, with an expedition from Russia on the oasti, - will not stop thero. Bulgaria and the Thraciaa Plain could easily become the side door into Constantinople. Now.that the front door at the Dardanelles is so stoutly barricaded, a side-door entrance may prove for England the boon she has been in search of. Certainly; t'he war in the Near East has entered upon a new phase. And it is' credible that this new phase may give to tho Allies an access to tho Marmora Sea and the Bosphdrus which until now has been denied tliem. Such a consummation, whatever may bo our attitude on the world war as a .whole, is devoutly to be desired. ® For from' no other quarter of the heaven, breaks there any light for Armenia, stricken ■ unto death.