PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2625, 22 November 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

It is manifest from some of the messages in hand that the drama of war and intrigue which is running its course in the Balkans is bound to open up to an extent almost immediately. Correspondents assert that there arc reasons for expecting an important change within .48 hours. The ehangeno doubt relates chiefly to the action and policy of Grcece. Up to the present King Oonstantine has been able to play a waiting game, but events have made a change of attitude, if not of heart, inevitable on his part. The remnant of tho main Serbian' Army, fighting with its back to the Albanian frontier, is 'not of necessity quite at the end of its resources,- but in the south matters have to all appearance come to such a pass that Greece is bound to take up an active role, if only in defence of her otvn neutrality. According to the Athens correspondent of an Italian newspaper, tnc Bulgarians have occupied Monastir and the Serbians are in full' retreat. This at the moment is unconfirmed, but all reports agree in stating that the Serbs in this south-western area are hard pressed and are being driven back upon the Greek frontier. It seems at best to be only a matter of time—possibly of hours— before the Greeks will be callcd upon to deal with the problem of a Serbian retreat into their territory and a Bulgarian pursuit. They are hardly likely to solve the problem without ranging themselves definitely with one party or the other in the war.

For tho time beinj; everything depends upon the decision reached by Grcece. The Allied Army in Southern Serbia, though it is holding its ground and has again repelled 'attacks on its right flank, in Bulgarian territory, • is apparently impotent to aid its Serbian Allies, who are being driven back 'into Greece further west, and there is every indication that a Serbian retreat in this region will, apply a final test to Greek policy. A neutral's ordinary course of disarming and interning belligerent troops entering its territory is obviously not open to Greece. Hitherto she has observed towards the Serbs- and their Allies an attitude, not of neutrality, but of benevolent neutrality. She is affording them open lines of communication through her territory, and the use of one of her seaports. Any departure from this attitude at the present critical stage of the campaign, as by the internment of retreating Serbian forces, could scarcely be regarded in the circumstances otherwise than as tantamount to an act of war. The alternatives open to Greece seem therefore to be narrowed down to closing her frontiers to the Bulgarian pursuit and allowing the Serbians a free passage through her territory, or making war -on the Entente. It is stated, in one the northern Greek frontier is heavily guarded, but that the geheral expectation is that no attempt will be made to disarm the Serbians if they retreat across it.

If this could be taken as authoritative, it would imply that Greece had decided rather to risk war with the Germanic Alliance than with the Entente, but in its aggregate effect the news in hand leaves the Greek decision an open question. A German report that Greece has ordered her merchantmen in French and Italian ports to withdraw immediately no doubt means that the Germans hope soon to welcome Greece as an ally. Other reports, including some references to Lord Kitchener, indicate a possibility that such hopes may be disappointed. All such reports, whatever conclusion they support, are, no doubt largely compounded of speculation. It is perhaps the most hopeful fact in sight that the Allies, with great interests ■at stake, are well aware of the proGorman sentiments of Kino Constantine and the faction which . at present holds tho reins of control in, Greece, and may be supposed to have taken their measures accordingly. There is news, for instance, of an imposing display of Allied warships at Salonika, which may mean that the lleet lately reported at Malta has been ordered to Greece. The Allies would be exceeding their rights if they attempted to compel ■Greece to make war, but they have interests at stake in Greece which they are entitled to defend by force, more especially as it was at the invitation of Greece that they first landed troops at Salonika, and it is possible that if they take decided action to defend these interests Greece may be left no other option than to enter into hostilities against the Bulgarians.

One question still to bo determined amidst the complexities of the situation is whether ■or not the Allied Army in Southern Serbia is in a position to deliver any effective counter-stroke to the Bulgarian invasion of Macedonia. The Bulgarian thrust towards Monastir, and perhaps beyond it, may seem to furnish fclw hut m not necessarily panfilusiva aa regards the

action open to the Entente force. The army is posted on the main railway, and for a distance on either side. The Bulgarian advance into South-western Serbia constitutes a threat to the Allied left flank, which may compel a retreat, but on the other hand the invaders, with their lines widely extended across country, arc themselves more or less open to attack. Provided always that they have force sufficient. to keep the main railway secure behind them, the Allies are in a favourable position from which to launch an attack. Here again much depends on Grecce. If Grecce joins hands with the enemy, the Allied Army will be cut off unless it contrives to effect a rapid retreat.

Late messages contain muoh interesting matter relating to Greece, though they leave unanswered the main question as to the policy slio intends to pursue in the immediate future. There are encouraging indications, however, that the days of Entente hesitation and temporising in tho Balkans are over. The presence of Loud Kitchener in Athens is a guarantee that the strongest possible action will be taken to safeguard Allied interests so far as that is possible. The mere fact that Lord Kitchener as recently as Saturday had an interview with King Constantine and subsequently with the Greek Prime Minister in itself implies that Greece may yet prove amenable to reason. It is worthy of note, too, that the British War Lord met with an ovation in tho streets of Athena-

The general lines upon which the Entente is proceeding are set forth, no doubt accurately enough, in current news. Guarantees are being demanded from Greece that neither Serbian nor Entente troops will be molested in the event of retreat into Greek territory. As to the nature of the guarantees demanded no official information is available, but according to a Keutor message the Entente Powers have refused to accept the verbal assurance of the Greek Government that their retreating troops will be unmolested, and have invited her to choose between immediate intervention and immediate demobilisation. The elements of the situation are undoubtedly set forth-correctly in this message, «md matters have almost certainly reached the ultimatum stage unless the Entente Powers, with Lord as their representaivc, on the spot, are assured of paining their end by gentler means. Greeoe must by this time have made the fateful plunge, and news of her decision may arrive at any time.

Rome of the leading British newspapers, it will be noticed, outspokenly condemn Lokd Ribblesdale's action in making public the substance, or supposed substance, of Sin Charles Monro's report concerning the Dardanelles. The revelation is denounced as a "blazing indiscretion," involving the 1 publication of news useful to the enemy. As the circumstances are now stated, however, it seems possible that the revelation, such as it was, may do less harm than at first seemed likely. There is no reason to suppose that Lord Ribblesdale was in possession nf full or accurate information, and Lord Lansdowne, in speaking for the Government, would assuredly make it his business to let no information escape. It is not suggested that Lord Ribblesdai.e had seen Sir Charles Monro's report, and while the Ministerial reply leaves it in little doubt that General Monro recommended withdrawal under certain circumstances, there is no evidence for assuming that this was his only recommendation. That he simply recommended withdrawal, without qualifying, his recommendation in any way, iB practical'y unthinkable. The enemy may thus conceivably be little the wiser for the public references to the report in the House of Lords. The fact is, of course, not filtered that to bring such matters into public talk was inexcusable.

A Reuter message claiming official authority contradicts reports in the German Press that Britain has informed Russia that it is intended to withdraw from the Dardanelles. The contradiction may be accepted with confidcnce, for the German reports bear plain evidence of clumsy fabrication. They assume that it rests with Britain alone to decide whether the attack on the Dardanelles shall be abandoned or continued, whereas a- statement by Lord Lansdowne in the House of Lords last week showed that this and other questions arising in the Near East are not to be decided by Great Britain alone, but by the Allies acting in concert,

A Turkish communique asserting that the ground won by the British at Krithia last week has been recovered stands, at time of writing, uncontradicted, though, the contradiction is possibly only delayed. Meantime it is worth remembering that practically every British success on tho Peninsula has been followed by the issue of a Turkish communique assorting either that the success had not been won or that it was of no importance. * * I* * Much as events in the Near East tend to absorb attention, important events are astir in the Italian campaign. A great battle has been fought on the Isonzo front, \under general conditions which aie described at length to-day by a German correspondent, and the Italians have captured hill positions, apparently of considerable area, covering Gorizia, the principal fortress on the Isonzo. The Italian success, important in itself, should have its effect on Greece and other countries, and make them less inclined to be' swayed by the temporary, and possibly delusive, .standards of strength which the Germans have established in the Balkans.