PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2622, 18 November 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

As one clay follows another the Balkan riddle beeomcs no easier of solution. Some messages in hand at time of writing tell of extremely critical developments in the Serbian campaign, and at the same time there is news that war material is passing freely into Turkey. It is stated that the first big guns from Germany destined for the Dardanelles have reached Constantinople. The broad effect of these reports is to indicate that the enemy is developing his Balkan enterprise with no immediate prospect of being seriously checked. It is as well, however, to bear in mind that current reports leave the story only partly told, and that some essential features in the developing situation are as yet withheld from the public gaze. Visible developments in the Serbian campaign hold out no great promise of an effective counter-stroke to the Austro-German enterprise, but action _in Serbia d/;s not exhaust possibilities where sui'h a counter-stroke 'is concerned, and the news in hand at the moment gives some support to an opinion that it is elsewhere than in Serbia that.the Entente Powers will strike their blow.

Some recent references, by military writers and others, to tfio Neai Eastern situation, might suggest that no such blow is contemplated, at all events in the near future, and that the Entente Power's have decided to concentrate undividedly upon the main theatres meantime, leaving the problems of the Nenr East for after-treatment. Any such idea, however, may safely bo set aside. There is a balance to be struck between the main theatres a/:d the Near East, and the Entente Powers cannot afford, to weaken the. position they have built up in the main theatres, but neither can they afford to resign the palm of victory in the Near East to Germany, even temporarily, without making a great effort to defeat her schemes. It may be that the power of the Allies in, the main theatres is their best guarantee that Germany, will not herself divert any great body of strength to the Near East, but with Turkey and Bulgaria already in her fold Germany, is in a position of advantage in this region. Unless the danger is dealt with in its present dimensions other Balkan States may follow Bulgaria's lead, t'jough this at present seems unlikely, and with events taking such a course not only would all hope of opening communications with Russia disappear for the time being, but the defence of the Suez 'Canal would become one of the urgent problems of the war._ An additional conscquence of giving Germany and her Allies a clear run in the Near East—a consequence that more particularly conccrns Great Britain —would be such a loss of prestige as would be apt to gravely unsettle the Mohammedan populations under Entente rule.

In the aggregate these considerations are so weighty that anything short of a strong and energetic policy by the Entente in the Near East is practically unthinkable. If any alternative were possible it. might bo thought that Lord Kitchener had gone out charged with the duty of deciding between the alternatives of immediate powerful action or the postponement of such action,_ but it seems evident that the situation admits of no other treatment than immediate action, limited only by the resources at command. The fate of the Serbian camp_aig_n is possibly not vital to the main issues at stakeIts late events strongly suggest that this view is taken by the Entente. As regards the direct attack upon the Dardanelles, also, a delaying campaign by the forces in Gallipoli may be possible.„ But the,need of maintaining some hold upon Greece and Rumania and generally of preventing the unchecked spread of German influence in the Near East, admits of no delay and demands action. Tho demand is so imperative that it may almost be taken for granted that Lord Kitchener is solely concerned in planning effective action, and the supposition that he ds so employed is something to set against the fact that the visible and surface aspect of events in the Near East is at present extremely unsatisfactory.

Taken at their face value, current reports of the Serbian campaign indicate that the Entente effort to help the Serbs is on a modest scale, and is hardly likely to achieve very important results. Late messages yesterday spoke of a violent battle in Southern Serbia, and conveyed the impression that the Allies were at length making a • determined effort to sweep back the Bulgarians along the main railway and so reestablish communications with the Northern Serbian Army. It now appears that the battle was of a stationary character,, and that the Allies; though victorious, remain in the positions they, occupied when the battle opened. There is no mention of British forces being engaged, but the French for 36 hours bore the brunt of Bulgarian attacks on their central front, west of the main railway, and repelled them with heavy loss to the enemy. This, as is remarked, was an undoubted Frenoh success. Whether it will lead to any' material improvement in the position oi the Serbs who are now desperately defending a mere fragment of their country is at present doubtful.

This battle on the Oherna River: is apparently the most important the Allies have fought since they entered Serbia, and as showing the position reached its leading details are instructive. The Bulgarian forces engaged were about three divisions, considerably less than a quarter of the total, Bulgarian strength. Though they repelled all attacks, the French apparently gained no ground, and from one report they appear to have lost a little in the vicinity of the main railway- Meantime the Bulgarians are developing a flanking movement in the area west of that in which the battle, was fought. They are endeavouring to smash the Serbian defence in this western area and strike south towards Monastir and the Greek frontier. As the news runs this particular enterprise does not seem to have been materially' checked by the Frenoh victory "on the Cher'na. If their line is turned on the west the French will be compelled to retreat despite their local success. This contingency, which involves the possibility of a- forced treat into Greek territory, is said to be occupying the attention of the Greek Government, who are expected bv Germany to disarm any troops that cross the frontier in this way. It is considered doubtful, however, that Greece would venture to tako such a step, despiro tlx-uro-GeraPu leanings of H3 rukv.

Them: is no official information,as to tho strength of the Anglo-French army in Serbia, but the turn of the campaign tends to discredit recent reports that it has been heavily reinforced. One message to-day states that altogether a hundred thousand Allied soldiers have lai ded at Salonika. If this is anywhere near the mark it emphasises what has been fairly certain for some time, and that is that Britain and France have no intention of undertaking a winter campaign in the Serbian highlands. For this there aro excellent reasons. An attempt to forthwith "drive the Austro-Germans and Bulgarians out of Serbia would involve an exceedingly arduou's campaign holding out 110 early prospect of decisive advantage such as might he attained by attacking the enemy where he is more vulnerable. The time to help the Serbs to hold their country has passed. They were left almost unaided to meet the concerted onslaught of the Austro-Germans and Bulgarians, with odds against them of at least two to one, apcirt from the enemy's superior force in artillery, and as a result only an insignificant fragment of their territory now remains in their possession.

Apart from the fact that it would probably be the prelude to a vigorous attack upon the common enemy under" conditions offering bettor prospects of advantage and success, the withdrawal of the Entente army from Southern Serbia would probably not make the condition of the Serbs materially worse than it is. The fact has. to be faced that the Serbs aro for the time being a nation almost dispossesed of their territory. To Serbia it can matter comparatively little whether a remnant of Macedonia is held for them or nipt, and this seems to be the measure of the assistance the Entente has been able to render them to date, apart from some material assistance in the shape of guns and ammunition. A considerable part of the Serbian civil population has already taken refuge in Mdntenegro and Albania, and the bust prospect before the Serbian army in tho immediate futuro seems to be that of a winter campaign in tho western mountain.; of Serbia. Receiving assistance from the Allies by way of the Adriatic coast, it could probably hold out until they have finally made an end of the AustroGcrman aggression in tho Near East.

The possibility that the forces in southern Serbia may be] compelled to retreat into Greece gives a now meaning to Loud Kitchener's recent visit to that country. It is-to be assumed, as is remarked by the London Times, that the Allies have obtained the necessary guarantees' from Greece that the retreat will be unmolested. In the ordinary way a neutral country is under the obligation of interning an army which retreats into its territory, but the position of Greece in the piesent instance is not ordinary. It was at the invitation of the Greek Government that Allied troops were landed to assist Serbia, and any irregularities involved are solely due to the fact that Greocc has failed to carry out her treaty obligations to that, country. An Athens message, the only one as yet received 'which professes to give explicit information on the subject, states that the Greek Prime Minister has agreed to place the Serbians on the same footing as the Entente troops in the event of a retreat. In the light of recent experience Greek promises are not altogether to be relied 1 -upon, but the A'lies have an argument in sea-power which £he Greeks may find it hard to resist in the event of their meditating any treachery.

Stories about a partial failure ,of the British attack in the region of Loos (in Northern France) in September are lifted out of the realm of rumour by a discussion in the House of Lords. The extent to which the attack failed to reach its intended development is left in doubt, but that there was a failure of some sort is admitted since the Marquis of Ckewe stated that the nutter was at present the subject of a military inquiry. TliC' true merits of- the question remain meantime in doubt. The discussion in the Lords was obviously partisan in character, one section alleging a failure by the Staff and another imputing the blame to two divisions which were brought into the battle as_ reserves. The matter in any ease is grave enough, but it is possible that its importance has been somewhat exaggerated. However far it fell short of its intended objective, the attack in the Loos area resulted in the capture of a considerable area, including powerful enemy fortifications. It was said or implied in the House of Lords' that the object aimed at was to pierce the enemy front, but i't seems hardly likely that the Allies set themselves to breach the enemy front in Northern France while simultaneously attacking, upon a much longer front, in the Champagne district.

In a spccch of record brevity in the -House of Lords', Lokd Fishee has made the reply that migfit have been cxpected to the charges laid at his door by Mr. Churchill in connection with the conduct of the Dardanelles campaign. The kernel of his utterance is a refusal to make personal explanations affecting the national interests when the country is in the midst of a great 'war. The attitude is one which commands respect, and while suspension of judgment must obtain regarding the questions at issue ' between Lonu Fisher and Mr. Churchill, most people will probably consider that the honours rest meantime with Lord Fisiier.