PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2620, 16 November 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Conflicting reports are in hand at the moment regarding the position reached in Serbia. According to one account the situation has very greatly improved, and the Bulgarians have been defeated aDd forced to retire in the region immediately west of Nish. Another report tells the very different story that the Serbians are being heavily attacked much further south and west by a combined Austro-German and Bulgarian force. The difference so far as the Serbs are concerned is almost that_ between a slow retreat with a considerable margin to come and- go upon and a desperate stand with the margin of' safety largely reduced. While further news is awaited, it must count for something that the report which gives the lees favourable account of the situation is a Serbian communique, but at the same time it must be borne 'in mind that the Serbs are anxiously waiting for help and that anxiety may have coloured their report. Its phrasing, indeed, suggests as much. The statement that the Serbians' principal hope is to hold up the enemy until they can effect a junction with the AngloFrench army in the south introduces no new feature, but on the information supplied to-day it would seem that the Anglo-French force will require r to press forward with vigour to relieve the pressure on the Serbians.

Until to-day no evidence has been afforded of the presence of AustroGerman troops anywhere in Serbia except north of the latitude of Nish. According to the news which has been received the Bulgarians unaided mastered the section of the Bel-grade-Salonika railway south from Nish to tho junction bf Uskub, which they hold, and for 30 miles or more further south, to the locality in which they are now in contact with the Anglo-French expedition based on Salonika. Some grounds have been afforded for a belief that tho Bulgarians were very fully occupied in Middle and Southern Serbia, and had no immediate prospect of assistance from their Austro-German Allies on the north. It has been stated that tbo Serbians in their retreat heavily damaged the main railway by blowing up tunnels and bridges, and there has been reason to expect that transport difficulties would_impede and postpone an effective linking-up of the Austro-Ger-man and Bulgarian forces in tho southern area of Serbia. The effect of the Serbian utimmuiiiquf. published is to indicate that thesa

difficulties have been over-rated, and that the Austro-Gcrmans have made quick and effective use of tHe main railway, with the result that a substantial proportion of the enemy's force is now concentrated against the Serbians in a limited area distant only some 90 miles from the frontier of Grcecc on the south and a little over 30 miles from the Albanian frontier on the west. To a full understanding of tho position in which the Serbs are./placed it would bo necessary to know whother they are in possession of effective communications with the Adriatic coast, through Albania, but in any case they are called upon, by their own account, to meet a powerful attack while their railway _ communications with their Allies in the south are cut.

If we accept this news as correct, only an early attack from the south in strong force will save the Serbians from being driven back upon the Albanian frontier, or even into Albania, and out of railway touch with their Allies. Such an event would not necessarily involve disaster for the Serbs, since there are great possibilities of an indefinite defence of areas in Western Serbia and Albania whioh lie beyond the reach of the enemy's heavy transport. But if the Austro-Gcrmans shojld succeed so far against tho Serbs, then the Anglo-French army might strike with greater effect in another Quarter than that in Southern Serbia, where it is now operating- There are no doubt better ways of countering the designs of the Austro-Germans which centre on Constantinople. The issue is one not likely to_ remain long; in doubt. If the position is as critical as the Serbians have painted it, an early stroke of battle is the only policy other than withdrawal open to the Allies, and a great battle in Southern Serbia is by no means unlikely. By this time the Allies may easily •have landed something like 200,000 men at Salonika, and should be in a position to strike with effect.

Some references in a late message to the Serbian campaign indicate a situation less critical than the Serbians themselves report, but lack of information as to the date of origin of messages, and other factors, make the whole position very uncertain. In one respect the later messages point in the same direction as the Serbian communitnie, which has been touched upon. They speak of a rapid passage of Anglo-French reinforcements into Serbia, and of an extension, both to the north'and east into Bulgaria, of the Allies' area of occupation. In the aggregate these developments point to the imminence of such an attack upon the enemy as may yet extricate the Serbians from their present perils.

If the passage of German munitions into Turkey has materially affected the position at the Dardanelles, the fact is not yet manifest. There is no news of the Gallipoli campaign at time of writing. There is news of a kind about Constantinople—a report that a residence ia being prepared for the Kaisee, and another, of Hungarian origin, that 100,000 Germans will cat their Christmas dinner at Constantinople. Reports of this kind only go to snow that the enemy is endeavouring to impart an aspect of exaggerated importance to his Balkan enterprise and so to strengthen an opinion that his actual aims in Near East are limited. It is as likely as ever that the Austro-Germans tim at nothing more, and are in a position to attempt nothing more than to stiffen the Turkish defence and embroil as many as possible of _ the ; Balkan States. Such an estimate of the position does not, however, involve acquiescence in the opinion' expressed in a Petrograd message, that the contest in the Balkan's is only an episode. It may be true that it is not in the Balkans that the fate of nations will be decided, but the issue of tho struggle in this region is bound to affcct, perhaps materially, the duration of the war.

Available reports from the main theatres tell only of minor events, as a rule taking the form of small successes by the Allies. There is much promise for the future, however, in the reports which find further confirmation to-day, that tho Germans are moving troops from Russia to tho Western theatre. It seems a plain case of acting under compulsion and concentrating strength, not whore it can be most effectively used in attack* but where it is most likely, to be needed in defence, ■

| Prophecies anent the duration and outcome of the war are as a rule of doubtful value, but Mr. Frederick PAlmer, the American journalist, who is quoted to-day as that the war will end next summer with the Kaiser beaten, has appended to his prophecy a statement of fact which is well worth bearing-in mind. The British, he says, in allusion to controversies on the subject of war organisation, wash their dirty linen in public, but if the German steel curtain could be lifted the revelation would amaze the world. It is undoubtedly true that muoh of the embittered controversy which has reigned in Britain reflects a national habit of self-depreciation, and is carriod on, by disputants who are absolutely at one in a desire to see,the war effectively prosecuted. It is efinally certain that Germany methodically hides and represses all controversy of this . character, and public agitation of every kind, and it would be absurd to suppose that the "steel curtain" doea not hide internal troubles proportioned to the burdens and ills which the war has imposed- The British method hides little; the German hides practically everything. On this account alone it is quite certain that no" surface view will make it possible to draw reliable comparisons.

Merited honours have been conferred by the Tsar upon the offioers of the British submarines which arc conducting a highly-successful campaign against German naval and mercantile shipping in the Baltic, lloval, where the Tsar inspected the submarines, is no doubt the base from which they are operating. Though it is situated north of the Gulf of Riga, the roadstead of Reval is not always frozen over in winter. It was under development as a naval base before the war and its development has doubtless since been expedited. r * * * »

There is little hope that the United States will take decided action in regard to the torpedoing of the liner Ancona, which involved the loss of some 20 American lives. Reports so far received imply that. President Wilson and his Government in this instance may find an excuse for inaction in the assertion made both by the Austrians and Gernwug that ttm liner, reused to atofl, wtoa wiweiMii t<a ds aa bs; the

attacking submarine. This plea is elaborately developed in an Austrian commmiqiie published to-day, which avers that Italy has instructed her_ merchantmen to either seek safety in flight or ram submarines, and further asserts that not a shot was fired at the Ancona after she had stopped. Even if this were true, and it is in direct conflict with the evidence of those who were aboard the Ancona, it leaves the main question untouched, and does not alter the fact that the attack was a murderous outrage. Tho idea that a submarine acquires the status of a legitimate cruiser by summoning her intended victim to submit may perhaps, judging by its past conduct, appeal to the Government of the United States, but is no moro 'reasonable than a suggestion that any other crime would bo justified by notice duly given. The nationality of the submarine whioh sank the Ancona has not been definitely established, but tho Austrians accept responsibility, and thereby associate themselves with a criminal policy of which the sinking of that ship is an aggravated example.