PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2617, 12 November 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

As was only to be expected, the expansion of operations in the Near East has made the Mediterranean more than over a hunting-ground for enemy submarines, and during the last few days they have wrought considerable damage. News in hand tells of the sinking of five, or possibly six, British and Allied ships, and also of an attack on a Britisli transport, which contrived to make port, though there was a somewhat heavy loss of life. It will obviously be a much moro difficult matter to protect transports and supply ships on the long lines of travel through the Mediterranean than in tho narrow seas adjacent to Great Britain, and tho considerable increase in the number of such ships now plying in tho. Mediterranean must be expected to result for a time at least in greater losses than have hitherto been experionoed.

A feature of the attacks reported to-day is tho extent to which gunfire was employed by tho submarines. This may be accounted for in part by their being boats of late construction, armed with more powerful guns than submarines ueod to carry, but the use of gunfire in the attack on the transport Mercian is not so easily explained. Transports habitually carry a gun, and unless the Mercian was an exception to the rule, the attacking submarine took a considerable risk in relying upon gunfire instead of torpedo attack. It is possible, of course, that the submarine in this case had expended her torpedoes before meeting the Mercian, or used those she had ineffectively.

While attacks on _ transports and supply ships are legitimate warfare, tho attack on the Italian liner Ancona, reported to-day, was an act of murderous piracy in tho same class as tho of the Lusitania. Indeed, it was in some rcspccts much worse, for before being torpedoed the Ancona was subjected to a heavy shell-fire, and there are circumstantial reports that boats were shelled after they had loft tho ship, and women and children killecl. Tho event will give food for thought in America, which has lately made embittered protests against the necessary conditions of the British seablockade. There were 25 Americans or more aboard the Ancona, and the American Government is once more upon to declare whether it attaches most importance to dollars or to human lives. The first reports rcccivcd attributed the sinking of the Ancona to an Austrian submarine, but it is now stated, that tho boat was German, and .the charge gains weight from tho fact that attempts to justify the deed have been made officially by the Berlin authorities. In any case, America now has to choosc between tolerating an- atrocious orinie iii which her citizens were, or might have been, involved as victims, or demanding full and complete satisfaction. Even the poor excuse, advanced in the case ol the Lusitania, the ship carried munitions, is lacking in the case of the Ancona. The Ancona was an unarmed ship which had never carried munitions, and there is no shadow of palliation for as black a deccl of murder and piracy as the sea has ever witnessed.

Though the enemy for the time being has an exceptionally favourable field in the Mediterranean for submarine attacks, the account in this class of warfare is not by any means one-sided. According to a Rome report, one German submarine has been capturcd by British destroyers, and other reports declare that two German submarines were sunk by a British cruiser in the Straits of Gibraltar. The absence of any official confirmation of these reports does not necessarily mean that they arc untrue, since it is the standing policy of the Admiralty to withhold information of the capture or destruction of Gorman nubmartines, except in exceptional circum-

stances —as when they are taken or destroyed in sight of other enemy ships. It is quite certain that a vigorous submarine hunt is now being conducted in the Mediterranean, and it may be expected to achieve results, though it will he no easy matter to make the Mediterranean transport routes as safe as those of the less extensive seas about Great Britain. An unofficial report states that a German light cruiser has been sunk in the Baltic by a British submarine. There is not yet any Admiralty announcement on the subject. Another message speaks of an action between British submarines and a German squadron, off the Baltic island of Aland, but without giving details.

The idea that the Serbian campaign is an unimportant side-issue of the war and that forces sent to help the Serbs arc being wasted in a Quixotic and profitless enterprise, is revived in a statement credited to-day to Colonel Repington, _ the military correspondent of the Times. Colonel Repinoton's summary of the position may at least bo conceded the attribute of originality. Concerning such details as the relative strength of the Austro-German and Bulgarian armies opposed to the Serbs, he must be regarded as laying claim to exclusive information, since what he has to say on the subject is in direct conflict with such details as have recently been made public. Ho sots down tne aggregate strength of the Austro-German armies in Serbia at 18 divisions (something lika 350,000 men), and that of the Bulgarian armies at nine divisions. _ A number of recent reports stating that the Austro-Germans are using only 150,000 men against the Serbians, and that the Bulgars. have brought a mucji larger force to bear, are perhaps not more conclusive than Colonel Repington's estimate of the enemy strength, but the events of the campaign suggest that these reports reflect the true position much more accuraficly than he has done. The main facts of the campaign are not in dispute, anc? they are, broadly, that the Bulgarians launched, and are now developing, their attack on a front which practically coincides with the whole length of Serbia from north to south. Attacking from the north and west, the Austro-Germans are not only operating on a shorter aggregate front, but have been materially assisted by the Bulgarian operations, which take the form of a comprehensive flank attack upon the Serbia,n communications. These facts afford positive evidence supporting a conclusion that the brunt of the campaign, so far as it has gone, has been borne by the Bulgarians, and that they have provided much the greater share of the attacking forces.-

It is not possible to make an equally definite appeal to facts in considering Colonel Repington's dismal estimate of ultimate possibilities iii the Serbian campaign, but thorc is no particular reason for conceding it greater authority than the opinion of other correspondents who take a much moro hopeful view of the outlook. Colonel Repington takes it for granted that the Serbs will be crushed, and he considers that the prospects of the AngloFrench force in southern Serbia are, at best, dubious. Against this may be set meantime the report that General Sarrail, commanding the Anglo-French troops in Serbia, has returned from a tour of the Allied front, and declares that he is satis© fied with what has already been accomplished, and that tho present lines are safe. No ono coultl possibly pretend that tho Serbian army is clear of peril, or that it has any other prospect in the immediate future than that of a stern fight for life, but unless the current nows grossly misrepresents the position, the' Serbian causc is not wholly lost. The enemy has all but achieved his immediate object of opening effective communications with Turkey, but the task of crushing the heroic remnant of the Serbian army will be no light one, now that it is receiving such material assistance that the Serbo-Allied forces in the south have already taken some first steps in the way of counter-aggres-sion.

The intervention of such a powerful Austro-German army as Colonel Repington mentions would, of course, very seriously complicate the position in Serbia, but as yet there is only his unsupported statement on the subject to set against the opinion apparently warranted by events, that the Austro-Germans are leaving the bulk of the work in this campaign to the Bulgarians. Judged from this standpoint^. the campaign is certainly not without its hopeful aspects. There is no present reason to anticipate any early and brilliant recovery by tht Sorbo-Allied forces of the whole of the ground that has been lost, but reports from correspondents on the spot imply,that prospects of a successful defensive campaign in the remaining area of Serbia are _ reasonably good. Any comprehensive effort on the part of the Entente Powers to completely and finally defeat the Austro-Ger-man Balkan enterprise—such an effort as mav be expected to follow upon Lord Kitchener's visit to the Near East—is as likely as not to involve action in areas at a considerable distance from Serbia, but this makes the outlook in Serbia not less, but more, hopeful. If they arc called upon to cope with a powerful attack elsewhere than ill Serbia, the Aus-tro-Germans and Bulgarians will hardly be equal to attempting the complete annihilation of the Serbians and of tiic_ Anglo-French forces detailed to assist them.

It is admittedly not easy in tho present state of information to form a confident opinion as to the precise importance of tho Serbian campaign in its bearing upon the larger issues of the war. The ground for Relieving that the Entente counter-stroke to tho Austro-German Balkan offensive is likely to take most formidable shape elsewhere than in Serbia is simply that the line of communication which the enemy has opened with Turkey'seems to be most conveniently open to attack in Turkey, or perhaps in Bulgaria, if powerful Russian co-operation is assured, and particularly if Bulgaria is left to bo the chief bearer of burdens for the Central Empires in the Near East. This, however, does not exhaust possibilities. One factor which may yet materially sway developments in the Balkans is the attitude of Greece, or rather that of King Constantine, who seems to effectively dominate his country's policy. The new Greek Government has tendered assurances of benevolent neutrality towards the Entente Powers, but the unconcealed pro-German sympathies of the King must make Greece something of a magnet to the Austro-Gcrnians and Bulgarians. There is a report from Paris to-day which avers that when the Bulgarian and German forccs junction (they were reported yesterday to have done so) thov will march in the first instance on Salonika, in-

stead of directly on Constantinople. The report is of no particular authority, and probably reflects suspicion of Greece rather than any precise knowledge of the enemy plans, but it is possible that the invaders may attempt something of the kind in the hope of securing the adhesion of the Greek army to their cause. Whether such an enterprise is regarded by the enemy as feasible or not must depend very largely upon the state of public opinion in Greece, about which con-, iiicting reports are current. Plainly, however, it is not the least important justification of the Serbian campaign that the Sorbo-Allied forces have as yet opposed an effective barrier to the approach of the enemy forces to the Greek frontier.