PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2615, 10 November 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

More than ordinarv interest attaches to the report that the Austrians 'are preparing an army of 120,000 men for the invasion of Montenegro. The report is unofficial, and' rests as yet- only upon the authority of an Italian newspaper, but just such reports heralded the Austroinvasion of Serbia. There is certainly no lack of motive for such an extension of the enemy campaign as would be implied in the concentration of Austiian troops in Herzegovina, the province lying north and west of Montenegro. This little country, peopled by brave and hardy mountaineers, has been a grievous thorn in the side Qf the Austro-Germans since the invasion of Serbia began, ancl its mountains partly cover the transport routes through Albania which- are being developed by the Serbs and their Allies. It is the geographical position of Montenegro rather than the part it has taken, or is likely to take, in the war that most plausibly explains the preparations for its invasion, upon which the Austrians are now said to be engaged. If such an invasion is attempted it will imply that the Austrians are anxious not merely to I crush Montenegro, but to strengthen their position on the Adriatic seaboard and make head against the danger of an Entente attack in that region.

It is not yet possible to finally dismiss the idea that the enemy invasion of Serbia may be the opening move only in an aggressive campaign intended to be carried much further afield, but there is no evidence that the Austro-Germans are in a position to attempt any important extension of their Balkan aggression and much to suggest the contrary. As was pointed out yesterday it has been left to Bulgaria to support the principal role in the invasion of Serbia, the Austro-Germans themselves taking a comparatively limited part ju cho operations. Events may very possibly prove that these circumstances afford a true index to AustroGerman policy in the Balkan?, and that this policy is in its essence defensive. In that case, the eneji.v have an even stronger motive _ for seeking to strengthen their position on the Adriatic seaboard than if they were in the opening stages only of a developing offensive.

To Italy in particular this seaboard represents a gateway into Austria, and possibly a more convenient gateway than the mountainous frontier areas to which her armies have hitherto confined their attention. Thanks to a long series of assaults, the Italians are now strongly established ahead ibf their frontiers, and the danger of a counter-invasion to which they were at first exposed has very greatly, diminished. In these circumstances Austria is bound to look to the Adriatic seaboard as a possible gateway of Italian invasion arid to make provision accordingly, and the invasion of Montenegro,'for which she is now said to be preparing, would be a natural first step in that direction. The conquest of Tui> key and the opening of the Turkish waterways must, of course, be the chief immediate aim of Entente policy in the Near East, and until so much has been accomplished, and Russia as a consequence raised to full fighting strength, any, invasion of Austria from the south is hardly to be looked for. But as matters stand the Adriatic seaboard represents a gateway into Austria, ready to be used when occasion serves. In mere self-preservation Austria is bound to do what she can to close the gate, and it is not at all unlikely that she contemplates an invasion of Montenegro, which wou'd presumably be intended as the prelude to an invasion of Albania and an attempt to master the whole extent of the Eastern Adriatic coast, north of the Greek frontier-

There is significance in the report; that many Italians consider the 'Entente to be in a better position without Greece, whose adhesion would complicate various problems. This presumably means that Italians, or those to whom the statement is attributed, welcome the opportunity of giving effect to the. national ambitions where the Eastern seaboard of the Adriatic is concerned without having to deal with Greece as a competitor, So read the message is in keeping with other reoent suggestions that Italy meditates a policy of action in the territories east of the Adriatic.

Nothing gives greater support to the idea that the Austro-Germans may be unclor the necessity of limiting their operations in the Balkans than what is known of developments in the ma'in Eastern campaign. The Germans in the Baltic Provinces seem now to have been decisively repulsed and driven back after weeks of unavailing effort to master the Dwina line, from the port of Riga to Dvinsk. Comparative inaction obtains on a great part of the central front, while in the south the Russians during the last few weeks have materially gained ground. This is a state of affairs which augurs well for tho future since the Germans, though they have penetrated deeply into Russian territory, are_ still very far from being in a position to cripple the Russian organisation for war, and are i no longer at all likely to succeed in their projects of enveloping and destroying-tho Russian armies.

The Russian recovery manifested in the successful stand against tho Aus-tro-German invasion has been ascribed in large measure, no doubt quite corrcctly, to an improvement in supplies of war material and munitions, but it is only_ recently that the full bearing of this factor of munitions upon the recent passages of the Russian campaign has been made known. Some weote ago it was reported by.

cable that a big arsenal at Petrograd had been blown up. but fuller details received by mail show that this was a belated report of a disaster which was all but fatal to the Russian armies. The facts are briefly that about the time when the enemy opened their smashing attack upon the Russians in Western Galieia and the latter were most in need of munitions to enable them to withstand the onslaughts of Mackensen's phalanx, the vast munitio' j works at Ochta, near Petrograd, were blown up and destroyed, as the result, it is believed, of German Secret Service intrigue. as a result was almost in the position of being disarmed at the moment of entering upon a fight for life with an admirably armed opponent. * K I> Moke than'- half the Russian armies throughout the campaign had been supplied with smokeless powder and high-explosive shells from one great munition factory at Ochta. "Among the leading workers," according to a writer who tells the story of the disaster, "were men of German stock and brilliant talent drawn from the/ German population of the Western Russian provinces. German Secret Service agents appear to have won over soino of these men, and the result was that, at a critical hour in the history of Russia, all the works at Ochta were blown up by a series of tremendous explosions in the nitrating tanks, detonating the materials used for shell-filling. Petrograd shook as in an earthquake. Thousands of the trained workmen were killed, and nearly all the munitions plant was destroyed." r 4i * 3

Russia as a- result was crippled at the critical stage of the great German advance. Many guns were put out of action by the shortage of shells and even smokeless powder for rifle cartridges was in perilously short supply. Great siege-guns were being produced, but the destruction of Ochta was followed by so extreme a dearth of ammunition that nothing could be done against the overpowering artillery brought to bear by General von Mackensen. _ It is averred by the writer mentioned that the catastrophe at Ochta not only compelled the Russians to . retreat and fight for time, but postponed the spring offensive of the Western Allies, notably by making it necessary for Britain to concentrate on the production of munitions to supply Russian deficiencies instead of upon completing the equipment of her own armies.

This possibility to feome extent exaggerates the facts, but there can be no doubt that Russia was for a time, so terribly reduced in fighting strength as to be in a position of the utmost peril, and that her plight goes far to account for the munitions crisis that arose in England. There is ground for very real encouragement in the fact that these perils were surmounted, and no better proof could be desired _of the dogged courage of the Russian nation and Army and of the spirit of unity and mutual help which animates the members of the Entente. Not sensibly weakened by loss of teir'itory, Russia is to-day in every other respect enormously stronger than at the fateful epoch when the Austro-German thunderbolt was launched in }Vestern Galicia. More than six weeks ago the Russian War Minister was able to declare himself satisfied with the improvement that had taken place in the provision of munitions, and to speak of an enormous increase which w'as being fully maintained. It is to be noted that the first signs of the Russian recovery in Galicia coincided with the enormous improvement in munitioning to which the War Minister, bore testimony.

From the position of terrible _ inferiority in artillery ancl munitions relatively to the enemy to which she was reduced last spring, Russia has risen until she labours under- a much less serious handicap, and the position, absolutely and relatively, continues to improve. Simultaneously the Allies in France and Flanders are heavily increasing their pressure upon the enemy's western armies, and the outlook, despite some unsolved problems in the Near East, is deci'dedly promising. There is not much' detail news from the main theatres at time of writing, but the Russians are reported to be rolling back the enemy in the Baltic Provinces, while as regards theiother main theatre there are official reports of heavy artillery bombardments and' an unofficial message stating that the Germans have moved four army corps (something like 160,000 men), from East to West in preparation for a renewed offensive. The Italians meantime report the capture of another strong. enemy position. It is obvious that if these reports faithfully reflect the facts, prospects of any ambitious extension of the Austro-German . aggression in the Near East are slight. « » * «

Late news states that something like two-thirds of Serbia is now in the hands of the invaders, but shows also that their conquest is .costing them dear. The Bulgarian Army, it is stated, has lost a third of its strength. Munitions are passing into Turkey along the Panube route, but it may be some little time before unbroken railway communications are opened. A section of the railway north of Nish is still being defended against the enemy, and the Serbians by destroying tunnels and bridges, have greatly damaged those sections now included in the enemy area of occupation.