PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2613, 9 November 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Whatever plans of future action in the Balkans the Entente Powers may be maturing—and Lord Kitchener's now mission implies that a liberal margin should be left for possibilities of this character—the Serbian campaign has assumed definite characteristics which seem unlikely to alter for some time to come. It is reported to-day that the Austro-Gcrmans have pressed their southern advance to. within about 40 miles of Nish, and there is no detailed support or confirmation of the statement made by a French •newspaper that their advance appears to have been arrested. Good accounts are still given of the southern campaign, and several messages declare that the Allied troops in that area are being rapidly reinforced. 11 must be noted, however, that the defeat of tho Bulgarians in Southern Serbia, means as yet only that they have been foiled in an attempt to strike right across the country, and completely isolate the Serbian army in Hip north from the Serbians and Allied truous in

tho south. As matters stand, the tvru main sections of the Serbian forces have open communications by road, but it will require a considerable extension of the southern operations to restore railway communications.

With tho reinforcement of the Allied army based on Salonika and the opening of communications through Albania, the Serbians should bo able to continue a defensive campaign with good prospects. The enemy, nowever, has gained his immediate object in the campaign. It is now admitted that the Serbians were compelled to retreat from Nish after a gallant defenoe, and fclic result is to give tho enemy for tho time being continuous railway communication with Turkey. Sucoesding to this point tho AustroGermans have not of necessity gained any decisive advantage in the Balkans.. but they are in a position to pass supplies into Turkey by a more convenient route than the one along the Danube, of which they are reported to be already making use.

It is at this stage that the AustroGcrman Balkan enterprise may be expected to appear in its true proportions. Much has been said about designs of conquest against Egypt and othor ambitious schemes, but up to tho present nothing more has been attempted or -accomplished than to open a- road into Turkey, and it is notable also that the main burden of the campaign has been allowed to fall upon the Bulgarians. Persistent reports declare that the Austro-German force in Serbia numbers only 150,000—it has presumably been maintained at that strength— and that it owes its rapid success to an exceedingly powerful artillery equipment. Whether this is true or not, it can scarcely be doubted that the Bulgarians are engaging much more than half of the total Serbian and Allied forces. Obviously this division of the common burden cannot be allowed to continue if the Austro-Germans mean to maintain their hold upon the Balkan Peninsula, and further extend their operations in the Near East. The communications now opened with Turkey arc so much exposed to attack that tho Austro-Germans can scarcely hope to maintain them except by employing a much larger force than they aro reported to have so far sent- into Serbia. Until such a force appears it must remain an open question whether they have from the outset aimed at more than opening temporary communications with Turkey. A. great deal has been said about the difficulties and attending the transfer of Hii 11'. nte troops from the main and Italian theatres to the Near East, but all available news of events in the main and Italian theatres indicates that the Austro-Germans are in a much less favourable position to transfer force to the Near East than their opponents. At tho moment, accepting currcnt reports as correct, they have gained a clear advantage. Using themselves a limited fores; and relying largely upon tho Bulgarian army, they have established communications with Turkey, and are able to replenish that country's supplies in a fashion which may be expected to lengthen out tiie defence of tho Dardanelles. It doe-s not necessarily follow that the Austro-Germans feel themselves able to carry their own aggressionljcyond Turkey. • If they do they must have much larger forces at disposal than they have yet used against Serbia, and in t..at case, since- speed was so greatly in their interest, it is not easy to understand why they have not pressed the invasion of Serbia with even greater vigour.

"Whatever the intended scale of tho German Balkan enterprise may be, there can be no question as to the importance of defeating it, and it will be finally and decisively defeated only when'the Allies have mastered Constantinople. The .reconquest of Serbia is a matter that can wait, and it may be taken for granted that if the Entente is on tho eve of a bold strategical departure in the Near East, the Serbian campaign will for soma time to come occupy a position of secondary, importance. The goal of any powerful 'counter-aggression must be Constantinople, and the complete subjugation of Turkey, and whether or not.that' country is assisted by Aus-tro-German troops as well as in tho supply of munitions. . The importance of striking the shackles from .Russian trade and establishing free communication between that country and her Allies imparts supreme importance to tho mission Lord Kitchener has undertaken, even if the scale of the Austro-German Balkan offensive does not necessitate such elaborate defensive preparations as are implied in some speculations on the subject which figure in the cablegrams to-day.

It has been said that the AustroGermans have fully recovered the initiative by their action in the Near Jiast, but the true position seems to bo that they have achieved success in a limited enterprise which is but the prelude to much more important operations upon which the Entente. will enter with_ open prospects, and not impossibly in superior force. It is not at all unlikely, in view of the broad developments of the war, that the Austro-Germans may seek rather to profit by the conditions I hey have already created in the Balkans than to embark on perilous schemes of conquest further afield: Bulgaria now has no other alternative than to continue fighting. Even if she is deserted by her allies she must fight for life, unless, indeed, she elects to surrender and take the consequences. The advantage to the Austro-Germans of now limiting their Balkan enterprise is obvious. Besides reinvigorating the Turkish defence, they have gained the adhesion of the Bulgarian army, and so created a powerful outpost in advance of a section of their frontier which otherwise lay open to attack. _ If they now limit their exertions in tli3 Balkans they have none the less deluged the Peninsula in war, and created a situation emphatically demanding powerful action by their enemies. It would now be a natural policy on their part to conoentrate in the main theatres, trusting to the conditions obtaining in the Balkans to create a considerable diversion in their favour.

News front Greece seems to make the conclusion inevitable that the King is still having his way. The members of the Zaimis Cabinet, other than M. Zaijijs himself, have been reinstated in office under a new Premier, and the Veni/.ulistk arc apparently acquiescing in the arrangement. Almost the only satisfactory item of news concerning Orcccc is that the new Government proposes to maintain an attitude of very benevolent neutrality towards'the JintciUe Powers, This

my scorn to discredit- the story that numerous German officers are making their appca-rancc in Greece, but in view of King Constantine's attitude it is well to take nothing for granted.

The interesting suggestion is made in ono message that Lord Kitchener; intends to visit Greece, the implication being that he may succeed in swaying Greek policy. His presence would, as is remarked, show that the Allies intend to act with vigour in tho Near East, and it may be supposed that lie would bring very cogent arguments to bear upon the pro-German Kino and his party.

Russian and Austro-German reports are in direct conflict so far as the southern section of the front in tho main Eastern theatre is concerned. The Russians state that they captured 28,000 prisoners and 14 cannon on the River Strypa, in Galicia, while the Germans report the capture of 6000 Russians in the selfsame region. Both reports may be true, but sinoe the Russians have been almost continuously -on the offensive in Galicia and Southern Russia for weeks past, the weight of evidence is in their favour. In default of actual victories, the Germans would certainly not hesitate to resort to fiction in the hope of impressing such neutral countries as Rumania and Grecce, particularly at a time when action by these countries might deprive them of the fruits of their Balkan campaign.

Few late events in the Western theatre aro chronicled to-day, but interesting detail acconnt-s aro given of the rcccnt offensive in Northern F ranee.