PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2602, 26 October 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

The latest available news from the Balkans pictures a- situation not less intensely oritical than it has been, but possessing features which warrant a measure of hope as to the outcome. It is noteworthy that the Serbians and their Allies are at present being most heavily attacked and are feeling the enemy pressure most acutely not in Northern Serbia, where the Austro-Germans and Bulgarians are fighting to effect a junction, but in the south, where the Bulgarians unaided are endeavouring to cut the Serbian communications. Though reports are to an extent in conflict as to the actual headway made by the Bulgarians in this region, there is no doubt that their attack has developed dangerously. The Bulgarians themselves claim thit they are in possession of the greater part of the town of Uskub, and the silence on this point of Allied reports so far received does not neoessarily mean that the claim is unfounded. A glance the map will show that it is essential to the success of the whole Serbian campaign that the Bulgarians, if • they have gained a footing in Uskub, should be ejected. Uskub is situated more than half-way across Serbia from the Bulgarian frontier, and stands 75 miles north of the Greek frontier. It not only stands on the all-important railway whioh runs from Salonika to Belgrade, but is the starting-point of another line which runs north for a distance trending considerably to the west of the main railway. These arc tho only lines running north, and whoever holds Uekub commands the only railway communications between Southern Serbia and the middle and northern areas of the country. While Allied reports in hand make no mention of the Bulgarians having occupied Uskub, it is admitted that the enemy is in partial possession of Vcles (or Kcupruli), which is on the eastern side of the main railway, 28 miles south-east of Uskub.

It is not in clisputo, 'therefore, lluit the Allies have been thrown right buck upon their main communication railway, and for the time being are hard put to defend it. There is no need to emphasise the gravity of such a position, but it hits a. redeeming feature, Thn .jjossibility. still exists that the Allies

may bring up sufficient reinforcements to roll back the Bulgarian attack. Current reports declare that Anglo-French troops continue to arrive at Salonika, and pass north into Serbia, and even if the Serbians are heavily outnumbered at the moment", the handicap may be only temporary. It is plain enough that the Serbians are in a position of extreme danger, from which only heavy reinforcements will enable them to extricate themselves, but this does not introduce any new feature into the campaign. All along it lias been evident that the success of the Entente Powers in tho Balkans must depend in the first instance upon their being able to adequately reinforce Serbia before the A ustro-Germans and Bulgarians aro able to gain a decisive victory-.

Tjiat the Bulgarians seem to be concentrating chiefly upon outtinp the Serbian communications in the south does not of necessity augur ill for the future. From their standpoint the enterprise is attended by serious risks. They have no immediate prospect of assistance from their Allies in the north, and must expect to encounter not only the forces which are already opposed to them, and arc offering a atout resistance, but all the troops the Entente can pour into the Balkans in the near future. To achicvo their purpose they must not only cut the railway and hold it against Entente forces advancing from the south, but devolop an enveloping' attack on the Serbians in ooncert with the AustroGermans on the north. It is no light task that the Bulgarians have undertaken, and grave as it is at an immediate view, the position of Serbia and its Entente Allies need not bo accounted desperate unless on the assumption that the tide of Entente reinforcemonts, is likely to be hopelessly inadequate'. Granted a rapid tide of reinforcements it should be possible to drive the Bulgarians away from the railway long before they can receive effectual aid from the north. N * * # » f As to the rate at which the Entente army in Macedonia is being built up nothing is definitely kno.wn, and this is the factor upon which practically everything depends. The Austro-Gcrmans, however, appear to tyc making very slow progress in their invasion of Northern Serbia, and it would imply almost inconceivable ineptitude on the part of the Entente Powers if they failed to provide the. force required to safeguard the Serbian southern communications, and so round off the splendidly' stubborn- defence of the northern armies. According to one message, the Austro-Germans have penetrated only about half a dozen miles into Northern Serbia in their advance from the Save and Danube. This is not borno out by their own reports, but even from these reports it may be inferred that their lnva"sion as yet has made but halting progress both in the north and west. On appearance, they have brought only a limited force to bear, and are saddling Bulgaria with more than a fair share of the burdens of the joint campaign. , Some _ allowance must be made in a complicated campaign of this character for the possibility of unexpected developments, but on visible facts the determined Bulgarian attack on the Serbian, southern railways is not being supported by a correspondingly vigorous prosecution of the Austro-Ger-raan northern invasion, and. as a consequence its prospects of ultimately achieving decisive success are correspondingly reduoed.

The jnteresting statement is made by an Athens correspondent that General von Mackensen has given up the idea for the time being of joining up his own armies and those o£ the Bulgarians in the Timok Valley, that is to say,' by the shortest available route, across Northeastern Serbia, with the Danube as an avenue of transport. The grounds upon whioh this opinion 'is based are not stated, but it is discredited to an extent by reports that attacks are in progress which can be inspired by no other motive than a desiro of effecting a junction in the Timok Valley. The Bulgarians claim that they have' forced the passage of the Timok, and a Vienna communique states that Austro-Hun-garian forces have crossed the Danube at Orsova and captured forts on the southern bank. Unless these attacks arc checked the natural sequel will be an advance along the Danube where it runs round the north-eastern corner of Serbia, by the. Austrians from the .north, and tlie Bulgarians from the south. Such a development would apply an immediate test to the attitude of Rumania, for that country is capable of blocking tho passage of this section of the Danube, even if the Serbian defence breaks down. It has been said that Rumania demands the presence of 400,000 Entente troops in the Balkans as a condition precedent to her entering the war, but if she has concluded an undertaking on these lines it is hardly likely that she would allow the Austro-Germans to use the Danube on her frontiers as a transport route.

A report from Rome that the Entente has presented an energetic No to to Greece with a fixed'period for reply possiily reflects Italian sentiment rather than an actual development in the negotiations with Serbia's defaulting ally. Recent news has indicated that the Entente Powers are not minded to stand on ceremony with Greece, and have proceeded from polite remonstrances to pointed suggestions, but it is hardly likely that they have yet adopted the extreme measure of presenting an ultimatum. Present indications are that Greece can be brought into litie by less drastic measures if the Entente takes firm hold upon tho Macedonian campaign. As matters stand an ultimatum to Grccce might play into the hands of tho pro-Ger-man faction. They might conceivably engineer its rejection, and in that event, though Greece is exposed to attack by naval power, the problems of the Serbian campaign would be very scriouslv complicated. * * » «

Enemy reports affect to make light of the naval bombardment of the Bulgarian coast towns on the Aegean and Black Seas, but from Allied accounts it appears that- very considerable damage was done. Though the story of an Allied landin" at Enos turns out lo have been a. pure fabrication, these coast bombardments demonstrate satisfactorily that the Allies are in a position to effect a landing whenever they have troops available for the purpose. Apart from the material damage inflicted it is obvious that the enemy is under the necessity of keeping his coasts garrisoned in anticipation of a, landing, and the mere possession of dominant sen-power thus enables the Allies to materially relieve the 1.1 rwjitire on their Isuul furcea in tlja Balkans, No mention is mado of

enemy submarines in the reports of the bombardments, and sinco some of these craft are doubtlesß available it is to be assumed that tho bombarding fleets were in a position tu defy their attacks.

A fairly conclusive indication that the naval command of the Baltic has been wrested from the Germans, largely through the agency of British submarines, is supplied in the fact that the Russians have been able to effect a successful landing on a section of their coast held by thp enemy. The scene of the landing was Domesnces, a point on the south shore of the main entrance to • the Gulf of Itiga. The Germans admit tho landing, but state that the force landed was weak. This does not sound at all .probable, for the Russians would gain nothing by landing a weak force in the near neighbourhood of the powerful German army which has been attempting unsuccessfully for many weeks to master the Russian defensive line extending along tho Dwina from Riga to Dvinsk, on the Petrograd railway. A Copenhagen message declares that the Russian expedition is stronger than the Germans imagine. It seems probable that the Russians are preparing for a determined attaok upon the invaders of their Baltic Provinces, and that the part assigned to the force landed at Domesnces is that of advancing down tho coast towards Libau and taking tho enemy in flank. It is a situation full of promise, but as yet it has not developed. Heavy fighting is reported on the Riga front which so far appears to have, been inconclusive, though the' Russians admit the loss of a village in the area south of Riga. In view of the supreme importance of the Russian southern operations at the present juncture, it is possible that the sea and lana attacks upon the Germans in _ the north are in tho nature of a feint.

Further satisfactory evidence of the prowess of British submarines in the Baltic is to bo found in the official report that one of their number has sunk a largo enemy armoured cruiser, a fairly fast and powerful ship carrying complement of 500 men, and four 8-inch guns in her main battery. There can bono question that in this sea the. British sub- x marines have achieved a command which has never been approached by the enemy undor-water craft cither in the seas around Great Britain or in the Mediterranean. The tale of their victims includes one Dreadnought, a pre-Drcadnoughfc, - about half a score of transports, and a very large number of merchant craft. Of the latter as many as twenty have been sunk in one* week. The armoured cruiser now sent to the bottom is thus an addition to a mounting list. Available information goes.to show that the submarines have practically closed the Baltic to German warships, transports, and trading craft. Their success, the result of infinite enterprise and daring, may yet turn the fortune of the land campaign in the Baltic Provinces. _ It represents in any case the_ highwater mark of achievement in submarine warfare. >

Only brief reports of the Italian offensive are available at time of writing, but it is claimed on official authority that further positions have been wrested from the Austrians bqth in the Southern Trentino ancl on the Isonzo front. The Italians admit that the. tide of battle ebbed and flowed on the Carso plateau (immediately, north of the Adriatic), where the Austrians claimed to have defeated all attacks, but state that in this area also material forward progress has now ken made.