PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2600, 23 October 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Though the military and political crisis in the Balkans is said to have set the nerves of the American public on edge, the position of Serbia and its Entente Allies is not desperate. At all events, it is not shown to be desperate in such news as is available at the moment, though it. is undoubtedly critical in a degree that could scarcely be exaggerated. Much of the detail news of the campaign that has come .through during the last day or two is evidently' quite unreliable. One statement has been speedily contradicted by another, leaving the actual state of affairs more or less in doubt. The only fact clearly established is that tho struggle for supremacy in Northern and Eastern Serbia is still undecided, and for the time being this is a fact favourable to the Allies, since it means that the possibility of their defeating the Austro-German and Bulgarian aggression they haveso far held in check is_ still open. It will not remain open indefinitely, and the opinion expressed by Colonel Repington that the crisis of the campaign cannot be long delayed is no doubt well-founded. Of this campaign it is only true in a very limited sense that time is fighting on the side of the Allies. There is a diminishing interval available for throwing additional forces into the scale, and so, enabling Serbia to indefinitely prolong its resistance to Austro-German and Bulgarian assaults. Until it is known whether adequate Entente forces aro available tho fate of tho campaign remains doubtful, but unless they make their appearance quickly it must be expected that the enemy will master Northern Serbia and so become possessed of a wide corridor through the Balkan Peninsula into Turkey.

So far as details are concerned, current news, as has been said, is confused and contradictory. Yesterday, on top of news that the' Bulgarians had crossed the Serbian eastern frontier and cut tho main railway at Vrani'a (about midway between the northern fighting front and the Serbo-Greek frontier) it was roported that they had been dislodged and that railway communications had been restored. Now it is reported that the Bulgarians are still astride tho railway, not at Vrania, but northward of that place, and that a great battle is still in progress. As regards the southern part of the eastern frontier, it was reported on Thursday ostensibly on official authority, that the Allies had thrust the Bulgarians back across their own frontier, and captured the town of Strumnitza. To-day a Paris message states that advices from Salonika deny the occupation of Strumnitza. Until this chopping and changing gives place to definite news, no confident opinion can be formed as to how the campaign is going. There is no doubt howovcr, that the Bulgars are launching attacks against the main north and south railway, not only in the region of Vrania, but in other places to the north and south, where practicable routes are available through the mountains. In particular they claim a local victory m the neighbourhood of Stratziri, which would imply that they have made considerable headway into Macedonia and are striking at Uskub, a railway junction about 30 miles west of Stratzin. The latter place is twenty miles west of the frontier. News in hand not only indicates that the main Serbian railway is seriously threatened at a number of points, but casts doubt upon recent reports that 30,000 Anglo-French troops had moved north to Nish, and others still further north to assist tho Serbians on their north-eastern frontier, It is most unlikely that the Allied troops would move north, leaving a railway dangerously menaced in their rear. The details of the campaign are thus very largely a matter of conjecture, but. there is ample warrant for the belief that its crisis will not be long delayed. The Austro-Germans and Bulgarians have everything to lose and nothing to gain by delay, and if they have not already developed their concerted attack in' the greatest possible strength, may be expected to do so very shortly. # * » »

Two independent authorities—the Times's military correspondent and the Russian newspaper Retch—-agree in stating that the Serbs, apart from tho auxiliary Allied force, are outnumbered by their Austro-German and Bulgarian foes in the proportion of about two to one. The Aus-tro-German armies operating in Northern Serbia are credited with an aggregate strength of some 300,000 men, and it is thought that the Bulgarians have launched an approximately equal number against Eastern Serbia. The total available Bulgarian, force is larger—probably in the region of half a million—out a considerable number of troops must be detailed to guard lines of communication, the eastern and Aegean seaboards and tho Rumanian ancl Greek frontiers. Even on ' the assumption that Bulgaria is receiving some aid from Turkey the estimate that she has 300,000 men available, in the fighting lino, and in reserve, to act against Serbia, is fairly liberal. It is remarked by the llctch, that the Germans are probably holding a third army in reservo (two are at present operating in Northern Serbia), and ready to be launched against the Serbians from the west. If the Germans have as suggested a force of something like 200,000 men available for an enterprise of this character, the position of Serbia must indeed be considered desperate. On what ground the Ketch bases its opinion- regarding this third German army docs not appear, but it is difficult to see what the enemy would gain by temporarily holding back any considerable section of nis force since he has to face the possibility that the Serbs may be largely reinforced before the' issue of the campaign is decided.

Taking, developments,in, the main Uicatvcn iato aconuut, it is possible that the Auatro-Gcrmans arc unable

to increase, to any material extent their forces.—already operating against Serbia. In that event the success of their venture is seriously threatened by the Allied landing at Salonika, which they have so fiercely denounced, and which has already somewhat reduced the two to one handicap against Serbia, and may reduce it still further. l?ro-»i whatever standpoint the campaign is considered, the conclusion must be readied that its fate depends Upon the extent to which Serbia is aided by her Allies. Whether or not the Austro-Gcrmans and Bulgarians arc already putting forth their full strength, Serbia must bo largely reinforced ii she is to finally resist their onslaught, and while the extent of the reinforcement, effected and contemplated, is unknown, the fate of the campaign is equally in suspense.

■ While matters are in this state a certain amount of encouragement is to be drawn from the tributes paid by the Germans to the fighting powers of the Serbians. One enemy newspaper, writing in this strain, remarks that the Serbs, unlike the Russians, are not laying their country waste as they retreat. The reason is obvious. Tlie Serbs have no vast areas which they can convert into an inhospitable wilderness in order to hamper the progress of the invader. They must depend almost entirely upon the vigour of their resistance, and upon turning to account the natural features of their country, which lend themselves to defence. The remark of the same newspaper that the Serbian artillery has not .proved very formidable may mean only that the Serbs are still fighting well ahead of the positions in which they intend to make a last desperate stand, and are holding a great part of their artillery in reserve.

* K * » Lacking definite information about the position rcachcd in the Serbian campaign, it is difficult to know what value should be attached to the latest reports concerning Greece, but for what they are worth these reports are of a hopeful cast. They declare that a popular sentiment in favour of war is rising- rapidly, and is likely to prove irresistible. Similar reports have been made before, and have been falsified by events, but the continued check to the German invasion, and the offer of. Cyprus open up a prospect of a more satisfactory outcome on the present occasion. The danger still exists, howthat a serious Allied defeat in Serbia may" undo the work of reformation in Greece and enable the proGermans to regain the upper hand. In the Balkans it,seems to be a ca.se of all or nothing, for there can be little doubt that the accession of Grecco as afi active ally would be followed eventually by that of Rumania as well. On this account it seems to be quite definitely established that if the Entente Powers have provided such an army as will be able, with the Serbs, to offer a decidcd check to the Austro-Germans and Bulgarians, they havo drawn upon their resources to good and, profitable purpose. It is equally' true that if such an army has not been proyided the cause of the Entente Powers will suffer not in the Balkans only, but in the whole war, to the extent of postponing the decision for which they are fighting.

But for the fact that military ovents arc likely to' exercise a determining influence upon the neutral Balkan States, the proclamation of tho Kaiser, iu which ho dangles a prospect of Imperial greatness bcforo Bulgaria, might bo expected to materially advance'the cause of the Entente where Rumania and Greece are concerned. Jealousy of their neighbours as definitely marks the national outlook of the several Balkan States a-s does a desire for territorial expansion, and oven as matters stand the Kaiser's proclamation is a pretty plain indication that he has little hope of bending Rumania and Greeco to his will unless by such measures as he has taken against Serbia. Already the proclamation has an interesting sequel. The Bulgarian newspapers, taking up the Imperial mission as to the born, are urging that if Greece is unable to expel the AngloFrench troops from her territory, Bulgaria should undertake tho work. Even Greeks inclined to a pro-Ger-man attitude may bo expected to resent talk of this kind. The achievement of the Kaiser imparts an -element of light relief to a situation which otherwise affords only too much ground for anxiety and suspense. If the fact had not long since been established it might be taken as established now, that the Supreme War' Lord does not shine in the ways of diplomacy.

•That the Russians retain the initiative in such activities as are under way in the Eastern theatre is again attested to-day in news of -a highly successful attack upon an Austro-German force south-east of Baranovitoh, a junction on tho Moscow railway somewhat more than half way from Brest Litovsk to Minsk. More than 3500 of tho enemy wero taken prisoner, so that the total Austro-German losses in killed, wounded, and prisoners, may easily have been three or four times as great. As to the campaign in Southern Russia an enemy report states baldly that fighting continues, and Russian accounts declare that tho enemy is in disorderly retreat. It may, therefore, be inferred that the position in this area, affords continued grounds for satisfaction, but available details are meagre both as regards Southern Russia and Galicia, areas in whioh the Russians aro perhaps moro likely to bring useful influence to bear upon the Balkan situation than by a landing on tho Bulgarian coast. **' # * A late message tells of further successes by the Russians, notably at Kolki, on the southern fringe of the Pripct marshes. It is stated that the Germans in this region were thrown back with enormous loss, but tho statement is not amplified.

'I'nE principal event recorded in the Western theatre is a renewal of the German attack on the six-mile front cast of Reims, an abortive attack on whioh was reported' yesterday. According to an official messago the sccona attempt failed as badly as tho first. Attacks thrice repeated were shattered and swept away. As an indication of tho relative power of the Germans and the Allies in the Western theatre, tho contrast between those costly German and the success attained by the Allies in their late offensivo is full of hope for the future. Nothing but success would justify the cost of such attacks as the Germans have launched during the last few days east of Reims, and the enemy losses must, of coursc, have reached'a vastly greater total than they would Imvo cached if tho attacks had sueccodcd.