PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2596, 19 October 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Some hard things were said about Serbia before the war began, and have been said (Since, but it must be recognised even by her bitterest enemies that in this crisis of her fate sho is putting up a magnificent fight for life and nobly discharging her obligations to her Allies. The Balkan campaign is now developing apace and the question as to whether the Austro-Germani. t arc' to open a road into Turkey may be decided at any moment, but however this first great issue of the campaign may turn, there can be 110, doubt as to the manner in which Serbia has pla.yed her part in meeting unaided th© opening onset of the Austro-Germans and Bulgarians. Only to-day has definite news arrived that the Anglo-French ai'my landed at Salonika is lending active aid to Serbia, and that gallant little country is now mceling attacks practically all the way round her frontiers from Montenegro to Greece. Yet, up to the present, the Austro-Germans appear to have taken only preliminary steps towards their immediate goal of a 'junction..,with Ith© Bulgarians. At heavy cost they have penetrated into the foothills south of the Danube, but they have still to break down the Serbian defence in the more difficult country behind. The Bulgarians, meantime, seam to have nowhore penetrated more than a. mile or two into Serbian territory, thought at one point, near the southeastern corner of Serbia, even this limited advance brings them close to the main Salonika railway. Unless they are reinforced to a greater extent than now seems possible it is most unlikely that the Serbs will succeed indefinitely in holding the north-eastern projection of their territory which commands the passage of the Danube into Bulgaria, but the possibility that they may be pvenvhelmed by weight of' 1 numbers in no way impairs tho prestige they have won their valorous resistance to the immensely more powerful forces of the German-Bulgarian alliance.

In a campaign where more than one issue is delicately balanced, some reports of detail events are of doubtful value, but the broad position established at the moment is that the enemy attacks have nowhere as yet been driven home, and that the Herbs have been reinforccd by at anyrate a portion of the Anglo-French Expeditionary h'orce. There is still time for the Russian descent on the Black Sea coast, foretold on official authority, it sxert a highly important, possibly a decisive influence upon the campaign, but the continued postponement of the Russian attack is meantime a factor favourable to the enemy. Something has still to be made known about the distribution of the Bulgarian forces, but the salient facts of the icampaign (stand out now pretty clearly. It is stated in one message that Serbia's unexpectedly vigorous resistance has upset General von Mackensen's calculations and necessitated a Bulgarian attack earlier than was intended. Coming as it does from Nish, the message possibly. reflects the opinion formed by the Serbian Staff or that of! tho Allies, and tho details of the news generally go to show that the opinion is accurate. Advancing south on a wide front from the Save and Danube, the AustroGormans evidently aimed in the first instance at occupying the whole of Northern and North-Eastern Serbia, and incidentally, mastering the railway which runs south from Belgrade to Nish and then south-east into Bulgaria. Attacks which are still being made by tho Bulgarians towards the railway running south from Nish to Salonika presumably wc-re' and are subsidiary to the initial object of esita-bliishing free communication from Hungary into Bulgaria. 1

In their offensive south from the northern river frontiers of Serbia the Austro-Germans have made slow headway against a determined resistance, and they appear to have been chccked also along the Drina on the western frontier, but they still have the option of concentrating, with Bulgarian aid, upon obtaining possesion -of the Danube where it runs round the north-east-ern comer of Serbia. This is n much simpler matter than mastering the Belgrade-Nisli railway. The Serbs, for the time at least, have heavily cheeked tho ambitious project in which the enemy aimed at gaining continuous railway route from Hungary into Turkey, but it will bo less easy to defeat the more limited project upon which the Aiistro-Gcrmaus and Bulgarians appear now to be concentrating. In guarding the vital section of the Danube tlio 8orb« ju-a willed upon to hold a 'narrow tract of country, in

places less than forty miles wide, against simultaneous attacks from north and souLh. The Bulgarians are reported to be attacking heavily along the River Timok, on the southern side of this area. Meantime the Austro-Gcrmans in their main attack, are extending cast along the "Danube as well as south, and unless such pressure is brought to bear upon Bulgaria as to compel her to relinquish the attack on the Timok line, the Serbianis holding the Danube will soon bo literally between two lives.

Any hope that the Austro-Ger-mans may even yet be excluded from Bulgaria rests upon the possibility that the Anglo-1 rench _ Army in Macedonia and tho Russians may between them engage practically the whole of the Bulgarian forces and so simplify the task of the Serbians in the critical north-eastern area by leaving them only one enemy to fight. It must be admitted that the prospect of diverting the Bulgarian effort in this way is not bright. There is no reason to suppose that the Anglo-French Army is in greater strength than will enable it to cooperate with the Serbians in maintaining open communications with Salonika, and the Prussian expedition has yet to appear in any strength at all. That the Serbs should continue to hold the Danube unless they receive powerful aid is absolutely impossible. * * * » Events have demonstrated the unwisdom of looking for aid to the Balkan States at present neutral, and for that reason the report of a powerful campaign in Rumania in favour of armed intervention on the side of tho Entente, must be regarded with a certain amount of suspicion. Tho report may easily be exaggerated, and indeed so- much is implied in the message which states that the Rumanian Cabinet has decided to continue strict neutrality. If the sentiment in Rumania in favour of war were as strong as is represented it is pretty certain that more would have been heard about it. As it is the statement of a single correspondent at Rome, that the pro-Entente campaign in Rumania has reached almost anti-dynastic proportions cannot be regarded as in any way conclusive. It may now be almost taken for granted that tho Entente is not likely to x receive any additional aid in the Balkans-until its position and standing have been materially improved by the efforts 9f its own members and those of their ally, Serbia.

It is possible that an exception may have to be made in the case of Greece,- for reports to-day indicate that strong" pressure is being brought to bear on that country to induce it to fulfil its obligations to its ally. The official Greek contention tliat the Bulgarian attack on Serbia is an incident of the European war, and therefore does not como within the scops of the SorboGreek treaty, is plainly unworthy. Ib'cannot be otherwise regarded by M. Venizelos since it _ now appears that it was at the invitation of the Government of which he was the head that the Entente landed troops at Salonika in order to assist Greece to carry out her obligations to her ally. Many people will be inclined to agreed with tho contention of the London Morning Post that if Greece refuses to fight on our side she must be treated as an enemy. The difficulty is that Greece is apparently divided against herself as a result of tho action of her pro-German King, but it seems, not impossible that the Entente and M. Venizelos between them may yet bring her into line.

■ Somewhat pessimistic opinions concerning the Dardanelles campaign and tlie campaign now opening out in the Balkans are credited to Me. Ashmead- Bartlett in an interview published in London. Mr. Bartlett's reported opinion that the Dardanelles campaign has _ failed must carry some weight, sines he lias had exceptional opportunities of observing what has been accomplished, ancl remains' to be accomplished, in mastering the defences of the Strait. _It may be noted, however, that in an article from Mr. Bartlett's own pen, portions of which are cabled to-day, he declares that the men of tho Navy will never relax tho grip of iron-they have obtained on the tottering Turkish Empire. _ This does not seem consistent with the statements credited to him in tho interview mentioned, and it is possible that it does not accurately reflect his opinions.

Mr. Bartlett's reported conclusion in regard to the Balkan campaign is that it is an enterprise of secondary importance upon which it is unwise to expend resources. On what grounds this, conclusion is based cloes not appear, but obviously it would be sound only if the conquest of Turkey and the opening of the Dardanelles and Bosphorus were no longer of supreme importance to Russia. It is quite certain that tho opening oE the Turkish waterways is as important to Russia, or nearly as important, as it has ever been, And this single fact makes tho Balkan campaign a conflict not of secondary, out of vital, importance. It is not a matter of secondary importance that Russia should ha-vo free access to the Mediterranean and so be <able to import enormously . increased supplies of munitions arid to export her immense harvest. Any doubts on the subject should he resolved by the statement of the Russian Minister_ for War. that tho position of Russia can only improve if the resources in men and labour of tho Allies give her efficacious aid in the matter of military supplies. In order that this aid may be rendered it is first of all essential that the blockadc of Russia should be- broken and this cannot now be accomplished save by an Entente victory in tho Balkans.