PROGRESS OP THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2592, 14 October 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OP THE WAR

Looktng_ only at current events as they are disclosed in the news available at time of writing, it cannot be said that the Entente prospects in the Balkans arc improving. Serbia is putting up a splendid fight against the Austro-Germans in her northern and north-western territories, and has even in some places thrust the^ invaders back across the frontier rivers which they lately forced at heavy cost. This is satisfactory as far as it goes. A less feature of the situation is that while Bulgaria- has taken the field and the enemy aggression is developing apace, there is no immediate sign or promise of the powerful counter-stroke by the Entente, which is imperatively necessary if matters are not to go from bad to worse. There is, indeed, a definite statement by the Fl'ench Premier that .Russia is throwing troops against Bulgaria, but a landing on the Black Sea coast of Bulgaria, to 'which Russia has access by virtue of her sea-power, is not the move needed to immediately counteract the Bulgarians are making 011 Eastern Serbia in cooperation with the Austro-Germans in the north. The position reported at the moment is that Serbia is being loft to battle alone against ,a growing multitude of foe's. Although the strength of the Austro-Gcrman armies in Serbia and on the frontiers is estimated in one message at .300,000, and in another ■ at <100,000, there would be no cause for alarm if Serbia- wero left for the limo to nvwt their onslaught unaided in the north.

cm mountain strongholds, against which the tide of invasion has hitherto beaten in vain, Init she is now callcd upon to copc with a new enemy on a frqnt much less easily defended than those oil which she lias hitherto been attacked.

Tile Bulgarian .advancc across the eastern frontier o£ Serbia means that the latter country is now being attacked on three sides by forces having an aggregate strength about twice as great as that of her own army. The disproportion of strength, however, is not the most menacing feature ox the situation in which the Serbs arc placed. In the north ,and west they are strongly, placed, with a wide area of mountainous country, crossed by precipitous ridges, to fall back upon. On the eastern frontier also the country is mountainous, but only a narrow strip of territory covers the vital railway which runs south to Salonika and constitutes practically the only link of communication between Serbia and her Allies. A victorious continuation of the advance which the Bulgarians have already begun would not only isolate Serbia, out would he an important step towards an effective envelopment of tho Serbian armies. This being so, it is astounding to read the .statement made in one London message to-day that the Allied troops have not yet departed from Salonika. The only thing to be said about this is that it is to bo hoped that it is untrue. Probably this is the case. Considering tho issues at stake it would imply deplorable ineptitude if an Entente army were flying idle at Salonika while the Serbs were fighting for their lives,on three fronts— ono of them a front on which the Entente troops should ' not only he taking effectual measures to protect tho Serbian right ,flank and communications, but should be pressing vigorously forward to do battle for the clear road south into Turkey and north into Central Europe, which is the supreme prize of war in the Balkans.

One untoward development' is reported, but not officially confirmed. An Athens message states that when the Serbian Minister officially advised the Greek Premier of the opening of the Bulgarian offensive, M. Zaiiiis replied: "Greece remains in the position of armed neutrality." This means, if true, that Greece has distfwned the obligations to her ally which supplied the ostensible motive of her mobilisation, and it cannot be regarded as established that she has been guilty of so definite a defection until thorc is official news of the fact. It is much more likely tha't she is still hanging fire without having made any definite declaration of policy, and this in itself is serious enough. Plainly, however, the Entente will obtain command of the Balkan situation only by making effective use of its own military resources. The best way to make_ sure of Greek military co-operation is, by throwing big forces into tho Balkans, to reduce its importance relatively to the total Entente effort, and that, it is to be hoped, is the' policy tho Entente has adopted.

With matters in their present critical state it is not exactly pleasant to read that the Serbian capital has been removed from Nish to Ivlonastir. Nish stands, on .the main north and south railway—the railway which must be defended at. all costs—at the point where it branohes, south towards, Salonika and southcast towards Bulgaria. Monaatir is situated in south-western Serbia, north of the Greek frontier., .Tlio removal of the Serbian Government from Nish is an .indication that tlie Bulgarian attack on the approaches to the railway is seriously regarded, but it does not necessarily follow that apprehensions are entertained of its probable success. The business of government is best transacted in headquarters located well away from areas of warlike, conflict, and it is no doubt this consideration that has dictated the removal .to Monastir. In a greater theatre of war the removal of the French capital from Paris to Bordeaux was followed by the smashing defeat of the Germans at the Battle of the' Marne, and it. is possible that the evacuation of Nish may have an equally happy sequel on the eastern frontier of Serbia,

A later message than' the one which reports that the/Allied troops, have not yet departed from Salonika states that Anglo-French troops'arc still landing uninterruptedly at that port. 'Days ago it'.' was reported that up to Thursday last 32,000 Entente troops Had landed, and also that'the forces as they landed were being transported north into Serbia. Setting aside contradictory accounts as to the present disposition of tho army, the later news' affiirds some ground for a belief that .it is being raised to such a strength as will make it-capable not only! of repulsing Bulgarian attacks on. the; Serbian communications, but of ' carrying the war into tho enemy's country simultaneously ; with 'a Russian attack on and from the : Black Sea coast. These . developments,. however, are as yet only promised. At time of writing the only pronounced succcss reported on the Entente side in the Balkans is. that of the Serbians, who have succeeded in very ■heavy and_ desperate fighting in partly rolling back the tide.of Aus-tro-Gennan invasion on their northern . .and western frontiers. Not only have the Serbs repulsed all attacks on the Drina-Save front—that is to say on the western frontier and on the western section of the northern frontier, but they have at some points driven the enemy back across tho Danube east of Belgrade. .

Without discounting what the Serbians have achieved in these battles along their river frontiers, it must be recognised that their success, may be partly accounted for by a concentration of the enemy's main'strength in areas other than those in win oh' lie has lately suffered defeat. The Germans have every possible incentive to concentrate upon effecting a junction with Bulgaria, not only bcause they would thus at once command a road into Turkey, and because an attack 011 the eastern frontier of Serbia offers them speedier and more decisive advantages than an attack on the north and west, but bo.eause it is upon Bulgaria- that the weight of the Entente- attack may lie expected to fall."

Tjiehe is much of interest in the speech by the French Premier on the Balkan situation, which precedes a statement on. the same topic to be made to-day by Sn: JSdwaiid Gkey. Besides being a comprehensive review and dcfcnce of Entente policy in the Balkans, i\l. Viviaxi's speech supplies the first really definite indication of Allied plans and preparations for the immediate, future. He furnishes a satisfactory assurance that the Allies are acting in complete accord, but. one disappointing feature in his &pcech .is the. ab-

sence of any specific reference to Italy. In view of tho emphasis laid by M, Viviani upon the part to bo played by Britain, France, and Russia, it is possible to draw from his silence regarding Italy the conclusion that she is not preparing to play the same important part in the Balkans as each of her three principal Allies. There are alternative explanations, however, of which one is that Italy may be making ready for an attack on the Austrian Adriatic seaboard.

One statement made by M. ViviAxr, that Russian troops will ''tomorrow (Wednesday) be fighting side by side with ours," is evidently figurative. Other passages in tho speech make it plain that a Russian landing on the Black Sea coast is contemplated, and there is no practicable route by which the Russians can effect a junction with the AngloFrench forces landed in the Aegean until Bulgaria has been fought and beaten. The speech of the French Premier is, however, a definite assurance that France, Britain, and Russia, are taking concerted military action in the Balkans, and if their action is on the scale which the emergency demands a situation at present both threatening and unsatisfactory may shortly weal 1 a very different aspect. Another detail in M. Viviani's speech which deserves attention is the statement that the efforts of the Entente where Rumania is concerned liavo been not without success.

Added to what is known of Entente preparations in the Balkans, M. Viviani s specch affords gratifying proof that the view taken of the Balkan situation by Colonel Repington, in an article quoted to-day, is not that of the General Staffs of the Entente Powers. Colonel Refington complacently assumes that the fate of Serbia, and' therefore -t-lie mastery of the Balkans, depends upon the action of preeco and Rumania, and further, that it would be better to let Germany open a road to Turkey and the East than to open a great campaign in the Balkans. _ What place the DarcTanelles campaign takes in this remarkable speculation does not appear, but obviously the military correspondent of the Times, is on this occasion, more or less beating the air. The Balkan campaign is not a minor conflict to be entered into or let alone at will, .and immensely more than the safety of Serbia is at stake. Victory in the Balkans means for the Entente Powers the conquest of Turkey and an end of the Russian blockade which in its turn would mean a big addition to their aggregate fighting power. More than that, it means in all likelihood the effective co-operation of Rumania and Greece, which is not likely to be secured in any other way than by positive military achievement. To accept - the blockade of Russia as irremediable, to let the Austro-Gernmns first crush Serbia and then at leisure work their will on Rumania and Greece would be a policy not so much weak as insane. There is no need to wander into'speculations about Eastern conquest and its limitations to estimate the importance of the Balkan_ campaign. Its importance is visible, and the prize of victory, to one side or the other, will be instant and immediate. .

Practically all the news in hand' from the main theatres is good. No exceptional event is recorded in the West, but the Russians, while they have lost a little ground in the heavy fighting on their northern front, are elsewhere conducting a brisk offensive. In particular their forward movement in Galicia, where they have dislodged the Austrian from lines of powerfully-fortified entrenchments, is an interesting sequel, to' the statement _ credited yesterday to the London Times, that Rumania is no longer in touch with aggressive ilussian .armies.