PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2588, 9 October 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

An outstanding item in the mass of news concerning the Balkan crisis is tho message, coming by way of New York, which states that tho AustroGermans have crossed tho Serbian northern and north-western frontiers

in strong force. The report, however, is of doubtful authority, and is contradicted by a Serbian communique, which probably deals with as late events. According to the New York message tho enemy havo crossed both tho Danube ancl Savo on tho northern frontier of Serbia, and the Drina on tho north-west. It is most unlikely that all three rivers, each ono of them constituting a strong defensive barrier, would be forced in the opening passages of tho campaign, and tho truth probably is that a really determined arid powerful Austro-German attack has yet to bo launched. The Serbian official report tells of artillery fighting on a limited scale on the Save, and for tho rest of enemy aeroplane attacks on towns a little way .south of the Danubian frontier. A later message shows that tho actual strength of. the armies massed against the Serbian frontier is still a subject of controversy, and that there is an acute divergence of opinion on the subject. Tho Petrograd correspondent of a Paris newspaper 3cclares .that only 100,000 Austro-Germans are threatening Serbia, hut it is added that the Serbian Legation at jParis insists that military information shows that armies having an aggregate" strength of half a million men have been assembled for. that l n,rpose -. * * . ' If suoh a statement has,been mado on Serbian official authority, it would appear to bo conclusive, and ; yet there is much to suggest that a considerable element of bluff enters into the plans of Austro-Germans against Serbia. There does not seem to-be any good reason to account for tho postponement of their attack until an Entente army, had entered the Balkan Peninsula, more especially as tho mere presence of .that, army .tends directly and powerfully to; counteract the measure of diplomatic success they have won in Bulgaria and Greece, and possibly in Rumania as well. If the Central Empires havo half a million men available for the purpose, they are Ao doubt capable of forcing the Serbian frontier, and effecting a junction with Bulgaria, but until they have'; done so it must be doubted whether they are ill a position to withdraw anything like that force from' tho theatres in which they are "already heavily'involved. It may be added that the" passage of time does: hot.improvo the prospects with which ; tho AustrorGermans would open an offensive in the Balkans. It is impossible on available information to estimate other than approximately the relative importance of the factors wliich\ are struggling for supremacy in Balkan 1 politics, but it is clear enough that the" German diplomatic triiimph rests upon a somewhat unstable foundation. Obediently as King Ferdinand and his Government have played Germany's game, it is riot by any means, certain that the ■Bulgarian nation will consent to follow their lead to tho point of making war on Russia and the Entente. There are persistent'reports of popular disaffection, and to-day it is reported that disturbances in Sofia and other towns have followed upon previous indications of discontent pointing to the probability of a revolt.' . ■■■ 1 ■, : i :

* It would probably be going quite beyond the facts to suggest that there is ..-"any immediate' likelihood of a, popular uprising in' Bulgaria against tho Ge-rmanophile policy of the King and Cabinet, but widespread disaffection evidently exists which is likely to grow ; and develop. The AustroGermans are thus furnished with suoh a strong incentive to'take immediate and decisive military Action that their continued failure to do so must be interpreted as a sign _of .weakness. ' The .only' really effective retort to the Entente landing at Salonika would have been a smashing attack on the Serbian frontier, and that this retort has not been mado cannot with any show of reason be regarded as void of significance. Whatever else may bo true, the landing of Entente troops makes tho p'osi- : of the Austro-Germans in the Near 'East .relatively less strong than it was, and unless they strike and strike quickly it is to be assumed that tho oalance will be further depressed against tlhem by the strengthening of the Entente forces already sent into Serbia, and by the- correspondingly greater influence that will be exerted upon publio opinion in the various Balkan State.

■-Whatever the Austro-German hopes and plans in the Balkans may be, it is evident that a great opportunity laces the Entente in that region. ' A German newspaper is quoted to-day'as;saying, that the Allies are tired of the Dardanelles campaign, and are selecting Salonika as a new base of operations, i This may be sot down as an attempt to make, the best of a prospect by no : means agreeable to'.the Central Empires. That the Allies have found a new base of operations at Salonika is obviously true, but this isfar from implying that they are tired of the Dardanelles campaign. On the contrary it makes tbo prospects of success in that campaign brighter than they have ever been. tßy their diplomacy which has achieved its most notable success in inducing Bulgaria to 'take up an attitude definitely hostile to the _ Entente, the Austro-Germans have in effect put up the mastery 'of the Balkans as a prize of war, ana unless they can themselves grasp the prize, they will be much worse off than if the diplomatic victory they now boast had nevor beenj won. The measure of their success so far has been to compel the Entente Powers to throw an army into an area where it can be most profitably employed, and if the opportun-. ity thus forced upon the Entente by German diplomacy is developed as it should be, the final result will be to hasten the conquest of Turkey, to bring the Balkan States definitely into line With the Powers which are prepared to conserve and advance their national interests, and to pave tho way for a new invasion of the Dual Monarchy.

• A brief report from Sir lan Hamilton shows that events have" taken an unsensational'course at the Dardanelles during the past month. Three hundred yards of ground on a front of four miles have been gained in the area east of Suvla Bay, but the Turks have apparently not been seriously disturbed in-their occupation of the heights which flank this section of their front on north and _ Nothing is reported at time of writing regarding the southern section of the front in the westcm none of tho Gallipoli Peninsula or tbo front south oI Aohi Baba, "