PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2586, 7 October 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

There is some uncertainty ,as to the date and' hour at which the Russian ultimatum to Bulgaria exYesterday it was rep'orted that it expired early on Tuesday 1 morning (Now Zealand time),, while according to a. Rc,uter message to-day it did not. expire until yesterday morning. In any case a period should soon be put to suspense yind uncertainty. Bulgaria must ere now have reached and announced her fateful decision, and the news for which tho world is waiting may come through at any moment. Already a very definite indication of the way in which events are moving is supplied in the landing of Entente troops at the Greek Aegean port of Salonika, the sea terminiis' of. the railway, which runs north into Serbia. Tho strength and composition of the army landed has not been announced, though one message speaks of French troops and another mentions' 1 a' division. It may bo taken for | granted that the Entente force will consist of much more than a division, and that it will embody a British as well as a French Contingent. A late message published yesterday quoted comments by German newspapers, which mentioned a,n'Entente army of 150,000 men, though they, mentioned it only to. assert that the Entente, could not provide such n force, and that Greece would have urgent -interest in , preventing a landing, Kvente hw silmtly *h<wn what the latter statement is worth.

and the German journals are certainly no less at fault in their anxious Efforts to show that tho Entente is. incapable of throwing a powerful army into the Balkans.

Assuming that Rumania either stands neutral or joins the Entente, thcr'o is no possible reason—unless enemy submarines arc able to supply .it—why the Entente and its friends should not easily outnumber an Austro-German and Bulgarian combination in a- Balkan campaign. Any idea that the Austro-Germans are in hopes of. fighting in overwhelming strength in the Balkans may safely be dismissed as chimerical. Serbia and Greece together have something like'2oo,ooo more men at eommand than Bulgaria; possibly their margin of superiority is greater. The Austro-Germans have to make good this deficiency as well as balance whatever forces tlie Entente is landing at Salonika or Russia may throw into the Balkans by way of the Black Sea coast or through Rumania. Bulgaria is in touch' with Turkey, but tho latter country can hardly now be in a' position to detach many troops from the campaigns in which she is at present engaged. She cannot do so, at all events, without advantage to the British in Gallipoli and in- Mesopotamia, or to the Russians in the Caucasus. Considering that the are more deeply Involved in the two main campaigns' than they have ever been, it is obvious that their prospects of bringing an overwhelming force to bear upon a Balkan campaign are poor. * * it »

One disconcerting fact not to bo evaded is that tho enemy may conceivably succecd _ in temporarily opening a road into Turkey and passing into tlia-t country the military supplies of which it is greatly in need. It is probable that nothing short of active co-operation by Rumania. will keep the northern frontier_ 'of Serbia secure at all points against Austro-German penetration. In order to reap decisive advantage, however, the Austro-Germans must not only open this road, but hold and defend it, with such assistance as Bulgaria may afford, against tho massed power of Serbia, Greece, and th'e Entente. If_ the AustroGerman blow - falls its immediate offect may retard the effective prosecution of the war against Turkey, but it will also havo the effect of setting up as a prize' of war the convenient and commodious road into Turkey through the Balkan Peninsula from which the Entente has hitherto beon excluded by the inactivity of the Balkan States 'other than Serbia. It is somewhat doubt-' ful whether tho Austro-Germans are prepared to throw such forces into the scale as would enable them to aim at the decisive mastery of the Balkan Peninsula. Attempting anything so ambitious, they will necessarily. weaken their forccs in the main campaigns, and the existing circumstances of these campaigns arc hardly: of a nature to warrant them in taking such a risk. If, on the other -hand, the Austro-German Balkan enterprise is planned on less ambitious lines, any present benefit it confers on Turkey may b'e r; moi;o than balanced if she is ultimately left to meet attacks by , additional and powerful enemy forces in areas muoh less easily defended than the Gallipoli Peninsula-.

In the light of tho fuller inforriiatibn . nbw available, ;, it does not seem necessary to regard the formal Greek protest against the landing of Allied trpops at Salonika as anything more serious tha,n a technical, observance jOf the niceties of diplomatic procedure _ and international formula. There is no possible parallel to bo drawn between the landing at Salonika and the German invasion of Belgium, nor is it true that the action of the ■Entente in this matter is justified only by a bald appeal to military necessity: The Entente has .landed troops _in Greece only to serve an end to which that country is equally pledged: military co-operation with Serbia if she should bo l made tho object of a combined Austro-German and Bulgarian attack. In order to realise the true position it is enough' to contrast what happened in Belgium with the action of the Greek Chamber of Deputies in passing a ivote of confidence in tho Government—the vote involving approval of the landing- of Entente troops—by 142- votes to 102. Though a substantial, this is not an ,overwhelming majority, but' the apparent explanation Is that the voting was on party lines. Evidently the strictly modern_ innovation of a political truce in reference to war affaits has not yet penetrated to Greece, but the retention of political divisions does not necessarily mean that tho country is divided in regard to the war. Despite the initial formal protest against it, the Entente landing in Greece, has now been defended by the Government of the country and approved by a largo majority-in Parliament.

It is easy enough to understand the eagerness with which some political sections in Rumania are advocating a general mobilisation which would pave the way for the intervention of that country in the war. For the time the Government

prefers to hold its own counsel/ The Prime Minister has .again been approached by a deputation urging mobilisation, and as on a former occasion has replied that this step is not necessary. M. Bratiano's reply only shows, however, .that the Government is bent' meantime upon maintaining a discreet reserve. It does not of necessity follow that it is antagonistic to the views openly expressed by tho political Opposition and supported unanimously, it is reported to-day, by the, newspapers. In tho existing Balkan crisis Rumania occupies a position that may be described as almost commanding. Quito apart from the fact that her army of half a million men would powerfully affect the balance of military power, her geographical position makes it possible for her to ertflrmously strengthen tho Serbian defence of the Danube at the point where it is most liable to be penetrated, and she is also capable of affording Russia a land route into the Balkans. It is natural that patriotic Rumanians should strongly favour 'a policy ,of enterprise whioli would enable, their country to exert an important influence in the war. The alternative in Rumania's case is presumably a jackal policy of waiting until the Dual Monarchy is in extremis and; then occupying Transylvania. From a late London message it appears that the. question of Rumania's participation is still regarded 4 as open.

A lair message confirms the fact that the Russian ultimatum to Bulgaria was not delivered until Monday afternoon so that, by New Zealand time, the period allowed for reply did not expire linti! yesterday morning. It. is stated also that the British &od French' Ministers have

intimated that they will withdraw with tho Russian Minister if the Russian Note is rejected. The landing at Salonika, however, had already afforded convincing evidence that the Entente Powers arc acting in concert.

The extraordinary statement is credited to" tho Prime Minister of Bulgaria that the Entente proposals to that country which have lately been under discussion concerned neither Macedonia nor the Greek territories. If the statement was made, as reported; to the Bulgarian Opposition leaders, it was an attempt to show that the Entente had never been prepared to consider Bulgaria's claims, but as the negotiations throughout concerned Bulgaria's claims to Macedonia and the neighbouring Greek 'territory on tho Aegean it is difficult to believe that M. Radoslavoff made any such assertion as stated.' The position is no doubt accurately set out in a London _ message which deals with the subject to-day. It states thai negotiations i between the Entente and Bulgaria in regard to Macedonia ana the Greek territory were broken off before tho landing at Salonika. The- Bulgarian, claims kwere under consideration until the policy of Kino Ferdinand and his. Ministers made further negotiations impossible.

There 'is singularly little new,? of actual fighting to-day. As regards the Western theatre encouragement is to be drawn from an official report indicating a situation virtually unchanged, for it implies that, tho Germans have not succeeded in developing the local success they won by ousting the British from portion of ' tho Hohenzollern redoubt; near La Bassee. The .French have re- . pulsed German attacks in Alsace, and violent cannonading, is general. Further suggestions are made that the Allies arc maturing preparations to .repeat tho successful onslaught they recently made on . the German lines, and it is pointed ,out by Colonel Re'pington that the .Allies have not yet by any means exerted their full powers of effective concentration against the German life.. The great advance in the Champagne appears to have been made by comparatively limited forces, and the same applies to tho British forward movement in Northem France.