PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2585, 6 October 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Though the period of the Russian ultimatum to Bulgaria expired in the early hours of yesterday morning (New Zealand time), the reply has not been reported at time of writing. Maitters have now reached such a pass,' however, that it would almost require- a miracle to deflect Bulgaria from the fatal, course in which she is heading, and it is highly probable that the expiry'of the ultima turn will bo the signal for war or for events leading up to war. At the _ moment all sorts of reports deal with the position, but in their total effect they do little .towards resolving such questions as remain open._ It may be assumed, however, that if war breaks out as now seems practically inevitable, the Balkan campaign will at once a-ssume considerable dimensions. The AustroGermans are reported to be moving a quarter of a. million men or more up to the Serbian frontier, the landing of an Entente army at Salonika is taken for granted (if it Las not already taken place)', and there are predictions also of a Russian landing in force on the Bulgarian Black Sea coast. _An Austr-o-German army half a million strong added to tha,t of Bulgaria will make a total force of something like 600,000 men. On available information - the Entente and its allies a.re preparing to place a considerably greater force in the field. « * (V * . A difficulty reported in connection with the landing of Entente troops at Salonika has probably been overcome by this time if Bulgaria's reply to the Russian ultimatum is on the lines anticipated. The Greek Government has formally protested against the landing of an Entente army at tho Aegean port, apparently holding that the landing should be deferred until Bulgaria has actually attacked Serbia.. In' that event Greece is bound to go to her ally's assistance, - and may be expected to welcome Entente co-operation, but she apparently declines to acquiesce ill' the passage of an Entente army through her would in itself be .a departure from, neutrality—until Bulgaria has struck the first, blow. The protest being of a formal character,. it is possible that it has not actually interfered with the landing. The motive :by whioh the Entente Powers are actuated is at all events clear. - Serbia is momentarily threatened with attack, not only by tho Austro-Ger-mans, but by Bulgaria, and in order to succour their ally, tho Entente Powers must make use of the railway whioh runs north from Salonika along the Vardar Valley. Naturally they wish to make^ effectual provision against a Bulgarian attack on this line, and so ensure .uninterrupted communications with Serbia. It: is not impossible, as has been remarked, that the Greek Government has contented itself with a formal protest without attemping to prevent the landing oi. Entente iforces, whioh if nccessary. vtjill .co-operate with the Greek and Serbian armies. It is obin any case, that if Greece insists in-this matter, upon a punctilious discharge of its obligations as a neutral, the danger of a damaging Bulgarian attack upon 1 the main railway will be considerably intensified. 1

As to the general character of the prospective Balkan campaign, it is impossible to form any very definite opinion a-s yet, because factors are still undetermined which must affect it vitally_one way or the otheri The intervention of a strong Austro-Ger-maii' force is not yet assured,, though it is predicted, but assuming that such a foroe is employed a great deal will depend on what Rumania may do. If she holds aloof it will be a matter of extreme difficulty to prevent a junction, of the Austro-Ger-man and Bulgarian forces across the narrow north-eastern corner of Serbia whioh separates Hungary from Bulgaria. Rumanian intervention, on the other hand, would open up a good prospect o'f the AustroGerman and Bulgarian- enterprise being strangled at its birth. « # «

A late message, unofficial in origin but transmitted by the High Commissioner, states'that Allied forces have landed at Salonika, This does not necessarily mean that Bulgaria has already' returned a defiance ■to the Russian ultimatum,, but it does mean that the Allies mean to let Bulgaria know that their threat to throw a force iiito the Balkans in the event of an attack on Serbia is no idle one. This may not deter Bulgaria from following the course she appears to have determined on, but even should it' fail to do this—as seems .likely—it will be a material advantage to the Allies and tb Serbia to have the troops on the spot at the opening sKigo of tho conflict, ; -

Interesting extracts are supplied by tho correspondent of thc ; Daily' Telegraph at Rome from what is said to bo a verbatim report of the re- 1 cent interview at which King Ferdinand received the leaders of the Opposition parties in Bulgarian politics. If the report is authentic, these Bulgarian leaders are animated by spirit, as resolute as that of the English barons who extorted Magna 1 Charta from -King John. As reported, they scathingly denounced the policy of throwing thoir country into the arms of Germany, and one of them went so far as to warn King Ferdinand that his head was in danger. These sort of messages, however, though they may contain a grain or two of fact, are surdly open to suspicion as to their accuracy.

In general the ground gained by the Western Allies in the grand offensive whioh opened ten days ago has. boon successfully maintained against all the efforts of the enemy to recover it. In one scction of the British advance, however,' a portion of the ground won has been lost. Though repelled with heavy loss in counter-attacks on otlier sections of the British line-, between Lens and La Bassee, tho Germans have succeeded in recapturing the. greater portion of tho Hohenzollern redoubt. This is a powerful field fortification, a network' of trenokes and bombproof shelters hundreds of yards in extent, situated south of La Bassee near the point at which tho line of battle, after running north from the vicinity of Lens, turns north-west into the salient formed in tKe German front by the La Bassee defences, j The loss oi h work of tiiia eWacterJ

after its captors have had several days in which to consolidate their defence, implies a very powerful enemy attack, and it seems hardly possible to dismiss it as merely an incident in the ebb and flow of battle which has been in evidence in different sections of the foremost positions wrested from the Germans in the opening movement of the great offensive. During the past week trenches have changed hands both in the Champagne and in Northern France, and in the near neighbourhood of the redoubt whioh has now been . regained by the enemy quarries which have been converted into strong defensive positions were won by the British, lost, and won again', on the second day of the offensive. Whatever measure of success attended the Germans'in these fluctuations of battle does not seem to have materially affectcd the position from the standpoint of the Allies. .

. Apart from the local check stated, of which the exact importance will only be more manifest by subsequent events, little . detail news of the Western campaign is available at time of writing. There is a German Headquarters report which may be accepted as a rather inartistic attempt to distort the facts of the recent battles. The German- retirement, it is explained, was not due to the ability of the English commanders, but was the consequence of a successful surprise attack with intoxicating gases. This is a feeble effort, suggesting that the inventive powers or the German Staff are. on the wane, but greater boldness is shown in the treatment of casualty figures. German losses are.set.down at less than a third of:the number stated in Allied official reports. On the other hand is asserted that French and British losses aggregated 190,000. It is only reasonable to assume that the report exaggerates the total of Allied casualties as freely as it discounts those of the Germans. \

Not a little encouragement; is to be drawn from the fact, that in reporting upon, the Eastern campaign (in the latest communique in hand at time of writing), the Germans are content to-, report-the collapse of Rmjsian attacks on the northern section of the front. The area east of Vilna, in'which it is stated the Russians ' unsuccessfully attacked General von Hindenbubq's forces, is one in which until recently the Germans were making powerful and determined efforts to pierce tKe.Russian lino as a preliminary to an enveloping movement. The admission that the Russians have taken up the role of attack is significant, and bears out recent Russian claims to the same effect. A correspondent at Petrograd, whosfc remarks are cabled to-day, speaks of a continuous improvement in the Russian artillery 'and the advent of huge reinforcements as -.factors which are enabling the Russians to take a firm stand'. The danger that a heavy German concentration in Courland may dislodge the Russians from the Dwina line, and _so gain possession of the port of Riga and of - a further section of the Petrograd railway, has hot disappeared, but weeks ago this danger _ seemed imminent, whereas now it is, if anything, receding. The danger to which the Germans are exposed in the Eastern campaign is onfall fours with the danger to which they are exposed in the whole war. The enemv they are attacking with diminishing power is daily growing stronger.