PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2584, 5 October 1915, Page 6

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Russia has broken into the complexities -of the Balkan crisis with an ultimatum to Bulgaria which should bring matters immediately to a head. Bulgaria's reply has nob been made known at time of writing, though the - period of 24 hours at the end of which the Russian Minister _ was instructed to leave Sofia, failing compliance with his Government's demands, has already expired. If the Germanophile faction remain masters of the situation in Bulgaria, she is presumably by this time at war with Russia, as well as with Serbia and Greece. The threatened withdrawal of the Russian Minister is evidently a, threat of wa<r. . It is so interpreted in a message whioh suggests that Kinq Ferdinand, who lately likened himself to a man with a lighted, torch running blindfold amongst haystacks, has set fire to his own haystack. Given time in which it might have been laid before the Bulgarian people, the Russian appeal (for the ultimatum is an appeal) is one that might have_ been expected to exert a potent influence. It was bv Russia's aid that Bulgaria gained her independence as a nation, .and no nation has a better right tlian Russia to demand that Bulgaria should openly break with the enemies of Slavdom and abandon her aggression upon her Slav neighbours. Apparently, however, the time has gone by for any effective outbide appeal to the Bulgarian nation. The country is mobilised and under martial law, and tho Gcrmanophilcs no doubt command the channels of communication. In those circumstances tho Russian ultimatum is hardly likely to reach tho Bulgarian people until it is too late to be of service. ■ ;

It is stated that, the other Entente Powers arc also presenting ultimatums to Bulwifti and this U m doubt ti'ue, thoufia it time oil wtifc.

j ing there is no official report on the .subject. In sonje important aspects, however, the situation is as yet undeveloped. . Next to that of Bulgaria's decision, the most important question waiting an answer is as to the course that Rumania will elect to follow. There is no confirmation as yet- of the story which arrived yesterday, by an indirect route, that Austria, backed by Germany, had presented an ultimatum to Rumania in reference to the passage of munitions to Turkey. It is reported to-day on equally doubtful authority that the Austrian and German Ministers at Bucharest have warned Rumania that she will be attacked the moment a general mobilisation of her army is ordered. On the whole, the prospect that Rumania will make common cause with Serbia, Greece, and the Entente seems to be, fairly good, but such messages on the subject as are coming_ through at the moment no doubt include floating rumours to which no great importance can be attached.

It may be taken for granted that no Entente Power would have taken as decided a step as Russia has taken in the Balkans if the Entente had not_ been ready to lend immediate military aid to Serbia and Greece in the event of their lo;ing attacked by the Austro-Germans and Bulgaria. That Russia has taken the. lead in the matter suggests,. though it does not prove, that she is herself ready to operate in' the Balkan theatre in such .force as would exercise an important influence on events. It is here, that the full importance of Rumania's decision becomes manifest. There are only two practicable routes by which Russian troops cab enter the' Balkans. One leads through Romania and,ths other would .involve seatransport across the Black Sea to a landing, on the Bulgarian or Turkish coast. The Russian ''-ultimatum if thus likqly to resolve the attitude J -'' as definitely as that of Bulgaria. Rumania has it in her power to alter the balance of the prospective Balkan campaign, not only by throwing her-own powerful army int'S the scale, but by opening a road to Russia, and the issues ' at stake are so vitally important that Rumania's decision will practically, 'resolve her attitude in the war. It' must be recognised that the entry of Bulgaria on the sid6 of the, Austro-Germans materially reduces tho prospect of a successful Russian landing on the Black Sea coast of the Balkan Peninsula, and on that accost the presentation of the Russian ultimatum to Bulgaria looks like an indication that the route through;: Rumania is available. . The only alternative supposition v seems to be that Russia has presented the ultimatum, not because she-is herself prepared to take immediate action in-the.'Bal-kans, but because of her position as the principal Slav State. , It is unlikely, however, that Russia is relying solely-upcfi her Allies who arc prepared to lanjl troops in Greece.

The suggestion is made in an articlc in the London Times, quoted iu to-day's cablegrams, that the Western Allies are called upon to tixert themselves _in such a way as to balance tht disaster of the practical eliminatio'n of Russia. No support for such, «an extreme opinion, is to bo found in recent official reports dealing with the Russian campaign. On the : contrary, these rejiorts afford strong grounds for believing that as tnerr' offensive develops the Western Allies' will bo assisted by valuable co-operation on the part of Russia. , A messago touched upon yesterday whioh stated that military _ critics in Petrograd were of opinion that the German Eastern offensive had : been arrested proved to be only an anticipation-, of a Russian._cowmM;wg , «e, received later, which makes the same claim, and supports it with detail evi- ; i dence. For some weeks the principal German attack upon the Rus-. sians has been delivered in tiho region east and north-east of Vilna and in the Baltic Provinces along this Dwina between Riga and tho junction of. Dvinsk on the Petrograd railway. The Russians now report, officially .that' as a result of twenty days of hard fighting in tho area east of Vilna they havo stemmed the enemy's advance and destroj'ed his plan, arid naw. themselves hold the initiative, i The .fact that ;hhe .Germans -have failed in repeated attempts to force tihe' Dwina between Riga- and Dvinsk speaks for itself. « # * *

There is no indication, of course, that the Russians are as yet in a position to take the bffensive all along the line, but the manner in which they have brought the German main attack in the north to a 'standstill and simultaneously rolled back the enemy- in Southern Russia and Galicia, augurs well for future developments in the Eastern 'campaign, The twenty days of intense fighting mentioned in the Russian communique cover the capture •of Vilna by the enemy., but the rapid eastwara thrust winch followed that, event was almost as rapidly arrested, and the contending, armies have since, bqen heavily and continuously engaged at many points along a front running north from the .Vilna region, whioh has a total length _of well over two - hundred miles. 'Now the enemy in an important section has been pushed back for a. distancs towards Vilna. To suggest that the Russians are practically eliminated when they are capable of coping oh these terms with the Germans where their pressure in the. Eastern theatre is heaviest is plainly to pay little heed to the facts of the campaign.

It is to be remembered, also, that although the more recent Russian successes have followed upon the, great blow struck at the Germans on the. opposite front, the enemy's Eastern offensive had been gradually slowing down for many weeks previously. In one sense only it is true that Russia is practically eliminated for the time being. Until the strong barrier of the Vistula line is regained, she_ cannot attempt the invasion of Silesia, 'which has been her ultimate object since the war began. If they retired in good order to the Vistula line the Germans would be in'a position to fight a defensive campaign, and their defence would bo_ difficult to penetrate. But such, a retirement would involve the abandonment of a great part of Galicia. as well as of the Russian territory cast. of the Vistula. The problem of recovering the Vistula is not likely to arise until the Germans have been brought much nearer to defeat than they are at present, but meantime they arc deeply involved iii a campaign which has carried them far in advance of the Vistula, and which promises in its late developments to impose an enormous drain udou their rfliittimes withcii.it ~yielding them any commensurate advantage, .

Further proof of the increasing power with whioh the Russians are pressing the Eastern campaign is contained in a late official message, which tells oI the capture of eight German howitzers and six light 1 guns, in the region, north-east of Vilna. There is also an unofficial icport of tho oapturc of 9000 Austnans on tho_ southern section of the front, but this at present lacks confirmation.

_ The keynote of the Western situation at the moment is no doubt to be found in the message of congratulation the King has addressed to his Army. In tho course of that message, he remarks: "I recognise that this strenous, determined lighting is but the prelude to greater deeds and further victories." Little in the shape of forward movement is reported at time of writing, except the capture by British forces of a, position west of La Bassee, but the situation of the Allies undoubtedly warrants an expectation of further assaults upon the Germans in the near future.- Attempts by the enemy to recover what they have lost have been decisively repelled. Tho Allies are firmly established in' the ground they have won, and are in a position to strike again when they ohopEe to do so.