PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2583, 4 October 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

On present information it seems likely that war between Bulgaria and her Balkan neighbours, who are supported by the Entente, may break out at any moment. Only a few days ago Sir Edward Giiey, in a memorable speech, warned Bulgaria that an attack on her neighbours wouM mean war with the Entente. At tho same time he made it clear that Great Britain had no desire to come to blows with Bulgaria, and would do so only if that country took steps which, in the nature of things, would be prejudicial not to her neighbours only, but to the Entente as well. A sufficient proof that the warning and friendly assurance of the Foreign 1 Secretary have gone unheeded is to be found h his further statement reported today. The later utterance is all warning, and, indeed, stops just short of being an ultimatum. Sir Edward Grey likens the admission of Austrian and German officers to take an active part in directing the Bulgarian army to the action taken in Turkey in 1914, when the German military mission forced that country to make an unprovoked attack on Russia, and states that since the Allied Powers are bound to support the States threatened by such' proceedings in Bulgaria the news is of the utmost gravity. This pronouncement and the facts by which it is inspired point so unmistakably to war that it would seem that nothing short of a revolution in Bulgaria can avert it.

The alluring bait Germany is said to have held out of a greater Bulgaria, stretching right across the Balkan Peninsula Irom the Black Sea to the Adriatic, is not likely to delude any really patriotic Bulgarians. People of this stamp know quite well—apartsfrom the fact that, in any case, the power of the Entente would have to be broken before the German-painted dream could be realised—that it is not the aim of the Central Empires to set up a new barrier in the Balkan Peninsula to their-own eastward progress, but that they are intent upon breaking down such barriers as exist. No reward is in sight which would compensate Bulgaria for the perils of the enterprise upon which she is apparently about to embark. Unless the aspect of affairs in the Western theatre,_ in Russia, and on the Aus-tro-Italian frontiers, is unexpectedly transformed, she will look in vain for powerful Austro-German aid ; n a conflict with her neighbours and the Entente.. This being so, tho only feasible explanation of the position reached is that Bulgaria is being treated as a pawn in tho contest of Empires by men_ who are prepared to imperil h6r national future for the sake of rendering present assistance to the Germanic allies.

Iris hardly in dispute that the recent policy of Bulgaria has been dictated by a limited group of Germanophiles, with King Ferdinand at their head. There is little indica: tion at present that the power of this group is seriously challenged, but it is stated in an Athens message to-day that the chief agrarian leaders are opposed to the Germanophiles, and may bei able to persuade tho people to oppose the war. Practically the only hope that Bulgaria may change her course at tho eleventh hour rests upon the possibility of such an internal upheaval as would pave the way for a true expression of the national will. With the a/rmy mobilised, any normal and constitutional check upon the Germanophiles is impossible, and the only question now to be determined is whether the Bulgarians will allow themselves to be dragooned into war as tamely as did their southern neighbours, the Turks. That they have allowed themselves to be carried so far on the road to war without effective protest is not a hopeful indication of the fashion in which the question is likely to be answered..

It would be possible to base a somewhat discouraging conclusion c.pon a statemcnt creditcd to-day to the Prime Minister of Rumania. He is reported to have disagreed with the expressed opinion of a Parliamentary delegation that the hour had struck for Rumania's entry into the war. In tho circumstances in which It was made, however, the statement was merely ifon-committal. / M. BraTIANO declined to have his hand forced, and his statement cannot be regarded as a hint of what the hand contains. Rumania has given a positive indicaton of her leanings in tho war by refusal to permit the passage through her territory of munitions for Turkey, and thereby lias earned the enmity of the Central Empires. Having gone so far, it would be an inconsistent policy on her part to remain an inactive spectator of an Austro-German effort to penetrate the Balkans if such an attempt' is made. The contrast between the attitude of, Rumania and the action taken by Greece is perhaps sufficiently accounted for by the fact that the latter country not only has special treaty relations with_ Serbia, but holds" portion of the disputed territory 191 Jfiiwlmiiiii vhtob if. the betfo o£ 'contention betweea Bulgaria mid

Serbia. It is to be noted also that tho secrecy which. cloaks whatever preparations Rumania may have in hand is not greater than that which is observed in regard to the preparations of tho Entente Powers,' who have promised to throw an army into the Balkan Peninsula to assist Serbia and Greece if they arc attacked hy Bulgaria. # # * «

The prohibition for 48 hours of private telegrams between England and Franco, and all neutral countries as likely as not has a bearing upon tho movement of Jinlcntß troops in tho Near East. In any case, us the period of suspension was short, tho point should soon be cleared up.

Current news from the Western theatre is satisfactory though not Sensational. At time of writing, no big development of the offensive is reported, but with trifling exceptions the Allies remain in full possession of the ground they have, won in what Colonel Refington describes as the overture to greater things. Meantime, Allied air squadrons are persistently attacking the enemy communications—damaging important railways and depots, and bombarding trains—and already the catalogue of the destruction they havo wrought is a long one. Evidently very targe forces of aeroplanes arc at work. In one case 65 aircraft cooperated in an attack upon a vailway junction. This is one of tho most powerful squadrons ever mentioned in the war dispatches, and tho enemy is being attacked simultaneously at many points, though not perhaps in equal force. * * * »

An interesting account is given in one message of the state of affairs in Belgium behind the German lines. • A rising spirit of hope in the oppressed population of Belgium is described as being in strong contrast to the mood of the German soldiery, who are downcast and uneasy, and not by any moans in the best frame of mind to meet the renewed shock of assault for which the Allies are doubtless making preparation.' No one expects that the German resistance in the Western theatre will be easily overcome, but tho. moral effect of a realisation that the tide has turned is bound to operate as a very potent factor, inspiriting the Allied armies, and exercising an opposite influence upon their enemies. e * J * * *

Comparatively little has been heard so far about the naval bombardment of tho German positions along the coast of Flanders, which may yet figure as a very important section of tho total operations, but according to the message'just quoted it has resulted in very heavy losses to the enemy, evidenced in train-loads of wounded marines passing inland from tho coastal fighting areas. It is one of the weaknesses of the extended German front that it is thus open to'flank attack from the sea, and the weakness is one which the Allies may very possibly attack with advantage. No doubt tho Germans counted _ upon using submarines as an-adjunct to landbatteries in protecting their northern flank, and the fact that the bombarding fleet has apparently been immune from loss by submarine attack is a striking indication of the hish level of efficiency to whioh anti-. submarine tactics have been carried. There is a report from Washington to-day which states that no fewer than sixty German submarines have been accounted for in the course of the war. Certainly a large number have been sunk or captured, but this American message is of somewhat doubtful authenticity. This becausc it states that the American Government is studying the British \ antisubmarine tactics, with a view to their adoption. It is unlikely that the British Government would ; take any neutral country into its' confidence in a matter of this kind, and so open possibly an indirect channel of information to the enemy.

An opinion attributed to military critics in Petrograd that the German offensive has been arrested along tho Eastern front from Riga_ to the Pinsk marshes is not materially at variance with such news of tho oam-* paign as is. available to-day. Some detail suocesses are claimed by the Germans, but they are balanced, 01 nearly so, by Russian gains on othci' sections of the line, and none of the operations reported appear to have been of major importance.