PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2582, 2 October 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

One of the most momentous announcements ever made by a British Minister is reported to-day to have been made by Loud KitciienkU. According to the Manchalcr Guardian he told tho British Labour Conference on September 28 that personally he preferred the voluntary method of enlistment, hut that the present rato of recruiting was unsatisfactory. Failing an improvement, ho has an alternative to propose, and ' that alternative is tho adoption of a modified system of compulsion. Ho suggests a militia ballot whorcby each district would furnish its quota, voluntarily if possiblo, and otherwise by ballot. The roll of fit and available men whioh would form an osscntial element in tho machinery of such a system is presumably provided in the National ltegister now being compiled in Great Britain, so that matters arc in train for tho ohango from voluntary enlistment to compulsion if it should bo deemed necessary. Probably few peoplo will find fault with Loud Kitchener for announcing his plan without having first submitted it to tho Imperial Cabinet. It is an opinion widely held that it rests with tho Secretary of State for War to givo the nation a lead in this vital matter, and that ho can do it with far' greater authority than his-civi-lian colleagues. The lead has now been given, though' as yet tentatively. The immediate response to Lord Kitchener's announcement by tho Labour leaders whom ho addressed was a decision to. promote a- special recruiting,campaign, and this no doubt was what he desired.

It is a- fair reading of the facts that the voluntary system is placed finally upon its trial in Great Britain, with the* alternative in immediate sight. Possibly Lord Kitchener has pronounced tho death-kncll of tho system of enlistment, which lie personally prefers, but whether this is so or not he has paid it also a magnificent tribute. There was no question, he said, of raising an army of the required size. That was already done. -The problem was to fill tho gaps. These aro words to bo remembered. Even if they find it necessary to resort in the last instance to compulsion in order to press the war to a victorious conclusion, tho British people will ever have cause to remember with pride what has been already- accomplished without compulsion. Under tho voluntary system Great Britain has raised the strength of its _ smail Regular Army to a level which entitles it to rank with the armies of the Great Powers of Europe, which rely upon conscription. Something of the -magnitude' of the British achievement was made known by Mn. Asquitii when ho stated recently that closo upon 3,000,000 . men , had enlisted since the outbreak of tho war. This means, that Britain has raised land fighting forces numbering about 3,500,000 men. Taking the Navy also into account, ' she has raised close upon four million volunteers, irrespective of what 'tho Dominions and India have done to add to her fighting strength. # * * '#

(• Even now. it' is not' certain 'fchdt the voluntary system has had its day and must give place to compulsion. Opposition in Great Britain to thQ adoption of the latter , system ,will no doubt be reduced to a minimum if Lord Kitchener declares that the step is necessary, but enough will remain to give rise to. more or less serious'practical difficulties. On the other hand, if anything can serve to give 'the necessary impetus to voluntary recruiting, it should be the knowledge that it- has . already achieved suoh splendid results, and that if it fails, compulsion is inevitable. potent factor under tjie plan set out by Lord Kitchener would be the! rivalry_ between_ districts. In all probability this rivalry would be so keen as in general to avert the necessity for compulsion, more especially as the district quotas would presumably be assessed with due regard to ' the necessity of retaining _ workers in essential war industries".

Events in the. main theatres are less than ever of a nature to encourago the Austro-Germans to take up new burdens ancl; face new risks by undertaking an offensive in the Balkans. The position in that troubled region continues to present details which deserve separate attention, but in a general survey the extent to which the Germans are involved and likely to be involved in the Western theatre, and, with' their Ally, in Russia, must be accounted a powerful steadying influence upon Bulgaria. It is a possibility worth considering that the Austro-Germans may have modified their plans in regard to the Balkans. Throwing such forces into the Peninsula as'would give them a prospect of fighting a successful campaign, they would imperil their prospects in the Western theatre and in Russia, probably in the campaign against Italy as well. In these circumstances - they may conceivably be keeping the Balkan project alive with a more limited end' in view. Even if they despair of breaking a road to .Turkey and keeping it open, it would be quite in keeping with their established character to go just far enough in the enterprise to involve" iJulgaria in war with her neighbours ?nd the Entente, and then leave her to continue the struggle alone or with such weak support as might induce iier to persevere until her resources were exhausted. Though their desires extend to a successful campaign'establishing free communication with Turkey, it'is a matter of more pressing importance at the moment to the Central -Empires that Bulgaria should become embroiled and in opposition to the Entente Powers.

The story of the Western offensive as it is being developed affords convincing proof that General Joffre did not use vain words 'in his order to his troops before Saturday's attack. The order was: "The offensive will be carried on without truce or respite." Remember the Marae ! Conquer or die!" As one report is added to another, it becomes more evident that the order of the Comman-der-iu-Ohicf is being carried out in letter and spirit. Progess in the main attacking areas has flowed, but it has not ceased, though the Germans must now be massing every available man and gun in I,lie < ffoit to bring their assailants to a, bait. Yesterday tho chief detail of the news was that the Allies'had Pledged tbe enemy from a command)ug height .in Northern France. To-day it tmntumffid f-baij tbs tfvoudi Km gained a footiag at several golats in

tho enemy's uccond dcfcriaivo position in the Champagne, The fighting to dato liiiH not of course Ijccii a record of easy and tinbrokon hucccks. Detail areas have been wort and lost. Hut t!i« offensive as a whole has Ijccii magnificently successful. The broad position is that after days of such battlo an luis applied a searching test to tho fighting potwrfi of tho contending armies, tho Allies are triumphantly established, in tho wido areas they have wrested from'tho invader and aro continuously forging ahead and preparing for such another blow as tlicy havo already struck.

A i,ate official message tells of. destruction wrought by sea arid land attack upon tho German positions in Belgium, and of a further advance in tho Champagne. Some grounif has been gained also in Alsace, west of MulhaUßcn. As yet Northern France and the Champagne have figured alone as main attacking areas, but at any timo tho Germans may bo powerfully assaulted in Eorao new quarter.

An unofficial message from Pctrograd states that the All icd offensive in the Western theatre instantaneously brought a certain relief of tho-ex-treme tension in tho northern section of the Russian front by inducing tho withdrawal of the v/hole of tho German Guards Corps, but a Russian communique just received shows that the Austro-Germans arc striving to maintain their pressure on the southern section of the front. A day or two ago the Russians were compelled to evacuate Luzk, a fortress town in Southern Russia which they lately recaptured, but they do not seem to,havo retreated for any great distance before stemming tho enemy's advance. There is nothing in the current news to suggest that the -Gfcrmans aro either within measurable distance of achieving a decisive success in Russia or of attaining such a position as would enable them to transfer heavy forccs to the opposite front. On' the contrary, evidence is accumulating that tho situation of their Eastern armies is, as one message states, precarious.

Tee Balkan situation is kaleidoscopic. Yesterday nearly all the news went to show that Bulgaria had taken thought and was likely; as -a result to avoid entanglement with the Austro-Germans and abstain from aggression on her neighbours. To-day this stormy petrel of international politics is reported to.be so nearly on the verge of war with her neighbours and the Entente, that unless the news is false she seems likely soon to be over the verge. The ohange that is said to have suddenly come over the Balkan situation is indeed so radical, that it will be wise to wait for confirmatory details before the current reports are accepted without reserve. For what they are worth,. however, these reports depict a state of affairs which would seem to make an early rupture in the Balkans inevitable. The most definite -is a French official message which states that German officers at Sofia are conferring with the Bulgarian Staff in preparation for a campaign against Serbia. This alone, needless to say, would suffice to .precipitate a general conflict. Once it is established that Bulgaria means to attack Serbia that country and its powerful Allies are not likely- toydelay,.,in;,taking the most effective counfccr-mcasui'es in their power. * * * »

With Bulgaria's alleged intention of attacking . Serbia as the central ■ feature of. the situation as it appears at the moment, surrounding details are filled in by a number of messages from Athens and .elsewhere which deal with movements of Bulgarian and Austro-German troops. According to one Athens message the Bulgarians have reinforced their troops on the, Greek and Serbian frontiers, and are massing others at Dedeagach and other places along their Aegean coastline, presumably by way of provision against the landing of an Entente army at Salonika or elsewhere on the Greek Aegean coast. Mention of the prcence of four German submarines at Varna, on the Bulgarian Black Sea coast, -would imjfly that Bulgaria is also preparing to take 'ah a-ctive part in resisting any attempt by the Russians ; to descend on Constantinople by way of the Black Sea. Another message from the Greek capital declares that 300,000 Austro-Germans are advancing towards Orsova, opposite the narrow north-eastern projection of Serbia which separates Hungary from Bulgaria, and constitutes a limited and possibly inadequate obstacle to. the pa-ssago of . troops from one country to the other. The Nisli correspondent of a Paris newspaper estimates the total strength of the Austro-Germans concentrated against the Serbian frontier at 500,000 men, including 350,000 Germans. Still "another message, whioh deserves attention states that -an Entente sympathiser, apparently the leader of -one of the Opposition-sec-tions in Bulgarian politics, is unable to co-operate with the present Cabinet, and that two Germanophile Ministers who were- reported yesterday to have, left the Cabinet have re-entered it. .-

Obviously if these reports are accurate the pro-German partj' iri Bulgaria,' instead of, being discredited: is in full control of the situation. If Bulgaria actually takes the courso to which she is now said to be committed, it is highly probable that war will instantly follow. Meantime, the most sensational reports about Bulgaria's hostile intentions are; discounted to .somo extent by the admitted fact that she has set up her military prestige .in tho marketplace and is inviting bids. ; This being so, it is her obvious'policy to' look as dangerous as possible. It is the equally obyidus policy of her menaoed neighbours and their Allies to make a formidable counter-demon-stration of their readiness,and ability to meet and' deal .with any crisis Bulgaria may precipitate. To use a slang expression, Serbia and Greece, with the Entente at / their backs, may be calling Bulgaria's bluff. Entente support would not _ be' available in suoh a cause if only the neighbourly differences of the Balkan States were in question, but •the merits of the Macedonian problem are completely overshadowed by greater and graver issues. Bulgaria is ostensibly animated by a desire to obtain satisfaction of her Macedon-' jan claims, but in threatening to combine with the _ Aust.ro-Gcrmans, who aim at reaching and relieving Turkey, sho leaves the Entente no other choice than to unreservedly support her friends and Allies. . « # * »

These avc the elements of a. situation that ."may culminate at any time in a tremendous explosion, but only tho actual outbreak of Avar will conclusively demonstrate that. Bulgaria has finally decided to link her fate with the Auatro-Gemaus, The poai-

tion certainly could not well be grave* than it is. As M ; , Venizelos has pointed cut in a speech reported today, mobilisation, with the enormous expenditure entailed, endangers peace, and the danger is aggravated by Bulgaria's attitude. M. Venizei.os takes tho view that only simultaneous demobilisation will eliminate the danger. Another alternatives would seem to bo the activo co-op-cration of Bulgaria, and her neighbours with tho Entente, but Bulgaria is perhaps _ precluded from falling in with this plan by the recent diplomatic _ dealings in which she acquired a slice of territory from! Turkey. Reports from Bulgaria at tho time stated'with emphasis, however, that the concession was in sonsideration of Bulgaria's past neutrality only, and entailed no obligation so far as tho future was concerned.