PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2581, 1 October 1915, Page 6

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

• Available news of the Western offensive is good and full of promise. The French arc relentlessly pressing their assault in the Champagne district and in Northern Prance they have capturcd the culminating point on the orest of the Vimy ridge, a. few miles south of Lens. The ridge thus partly won h<ls been named as a vantage point from which the Allies will be ableto launch a new and formidable ;;s----sault with possession of a, wide strip of Northern Franco as the prizo of battle. As regards the Eastern theatre also news in hand is good. It goes generally 'to_ show that'the Russians are continuing the struggle under much more favourable conditions than for months past, though they arc still being subjected to very heavy pressure in the Baltic Provinces. . At. a surface view these, and the continued success ,of Italy in the offensive beyond her frontiers, arc the cardinal facts of the war at the present moment, but in anything hotter than a surface view the trend of events in the Near East and in Turkey must lie held no less important than the trend of events in the two main theatres and on the AustroItalian frontiers. It'is not much to the, purpose to assess the importance of one campaign or'another by taking into account the forces engaged or likely to be engaged. On such a basis all operations outside the two main theatres would have to be rated as of secondary importance because these areas between them absorb an' overwhelming proportion of the total forces engaged. In point of fact, however, any basis of the kind is unsound. The separation of the Allied operations against the Central Empires and Turkey into distinct sections is in some respects more arbitrary .than real. It is a purely arbitrary generalisation to speak of the campaign against Turkey as a secondary campaign, because such a- generalisation overlooks the essential interdependence of all the campaigns _ against ■ the German-dominated alliance. The only way to grasp the true and full importance of the campaign against Turkey is to bear in mind that success in this campaign will bring the Allies much Dearer to success in tho tvar as a whole, and that postponoment of a decisive victory over Turkey will almost inevitably postpone a- victory over the much more powerful Empires with which that country is allied.

■These are-elementary facts which might almost be tjkon for granted. ,but until quite recently argument has run high in Great Britais as to whether Britain and Franco wcre_ warranted in weakening their forces in the main theatre in order to conduct a- "secondary campaign" against Turkey. This is a limited view which perhaps carried more , weight than it ought to have done in Great Britain because of the nearness and visible demands of the war theatre in whioti the French and British armies have so long borne up against an almost overwhelming _ The necessity of opposing an adequate roue to the enemy where he_ concentrates 'his greatest strength is, of course, plain'. .At the same time if the Entente Powers had contented them- 1 selves with standing on the defensive against Turkey in the Caucasus and in Egypt, incidentally leaving the Balkans, apart from Servia, to become a hotbed of Austro-German intrigue, they would havo been mt so much effecting a concentration of force as squandering invaluable opportunities and smoothing a path for new- enterprises by the . enemy. On present indications there is no longer any danger or likelihood ,of the war against Turkey being neglected as. an enterprise of secondary importance. Entente action against Turkey, and perhaps in the Balkans as,,well, has been delayed and restricted by the factors- — notably lack of initial preparation— which 'have delayed and restricted it in the war as a whole. . But there is every reason to boliovo that the war in Turkey and the Near East will presently be prosecutcd as vigorously as in tho main theatres. Sir Edward Grey's assurance that Serbia will be supported by her " Allies if she is attacked by Bulgaria, may be taken to imply that the Entente Powers are concentrating considerable additional forces in the Near East in any case, and assuredly these forces will not be merely held in reserve against a possible emergency. Tho immediate justification, of the campaign against Turkey is that victory will, iii addition to its local effect, materially strengthen the Entente and improve the balance of power in the war. But more than this a. victory against Turkey aud the influence it may. be oxpected to exert in the Balkans will pave the way for an invasion of Hungary by wav of the Serbian frontier; •' * • . »• »

It is again suggested by a Dardanelles correspondent to-day that tho Allies may have to fight through a winter campaign on the Gallipoli Peninsula, but there is a good deal, as yet, to warrant a hope that they may winter instead on the Turkish mainland. The present absence of news of important military events in most of tho areas in whicli the Tui'ki; are in contact with the Allies is no more an assurance of continued in* mobility than the state of relative calm which preceded the opening of the grand offensive in the Western theatre. The Western offensive has not merely exercised a pronounced influence upon developments in tho Balkans which have a vital and immediate bearing upon tho campaign against Turkey, but has greatly increased tho prospect that Russia and. perhaps, Italy as woll ma.v add powerful weight to the military pressure whicli has already undermined the stability of the Ottoman Empire. Apart from the prospect of a Russian desocnt on_ Constantinople—now better than it has ever been--a ml thai of an Italian landing in Asia Minor, it would be pesaimis-

tic to assume that the Allies on Gallipoli will allow the winter to set in without making a supremo effort to master the strong defences which have defied their assaults for _ five months.. A powerful siege-train is one of the first essentials to Success, and it is not at all unlikely that it is now available. That it has not yet been in evidence does not dispose of the probability. When the •Allies have in hand the artillery, that is needed to overpower the Turkish defences they will strike their blow suddenly and without warning.

Detail items of news relating to tho Balkans do not all point in one direction, but in the main they warrant an opinion that affairs are developing on lines satisfactory to the Entente. The London Times, commenting doubtless on a- fuller volume of news than is available here, emphasises the profuse professions of pacific intentions which Bulgaria has made subsequently to two outstanding events, the Greek mobilisation ana Sir EmvADD Giiey's warning speech in the House of Commons. • The inference is that Bulgaria ( or rather the Germanophile section in Bulgaria which is headed by King Ferdinand. has ten effectually overawed. The contrary impression, that the Bulgarian Government is still minded to trade upon a truculent attitude, is to be drawn from a statement by tho Bulgarian Minister at Vienna-, in which he declares that Bul'garia wishes to acquire Macedonia either peacefully or by force, of arms, and that no negotiations between Serbia and Bulgaria arc. possible. It is fairly certain, however, that this bellicose statement, made by a- diplomat who may not improbably be under Austrian influence, docs not reflect-the present attitude ofv the Bulgarian Government. The statement in any ease is in interesting contrast to tho report direct from Sofia that two Germanophile members of the Bulgarian Cabinet have resigned, and that it is being reconstructed, Taken in conjunction with the absence of enthusiasm which is said to have marked the Bulgarian mobilisation this news opens up a reasonably good prospect that Bulgaria may yet be induced to avoid the pitfall into which King Ferdinand and the Germanophile section of his advisors are apparently intent on leading hci\ Though their .standards do not coincide in all respects with those'of, Western Europe the Bulgarians are a highly intelligent people, and it is not impossible that internal pressure of public opinion is operating as a factor no less important than the Greek mobilisation and the Entente warning in keeping Bulgaria to a path of reason and safety. .

With the improving prospcct that the schemcs of those who would make Bulgaria a pawn in-, the game of Austro-German aggression may bo defeated the Greek mobilisation gains rather than loses in importance. The 2rst act of the Greek military authorities has apparently been to take measures for concerted action with Serbia in case of need—it is reported to-day that the Greek Government has warned Bulgaria of its intention to support' Serbia, and. other details of news jooint to concerted military preparation. In the continued absence of any effective move by the Au'stro-Germans on the Serbian frontiers this union of Greek and Serbian foreo is likely to exorcise a- dominating influence upon Balkan developments, while if the worst happens powerful resistance to any aggression in which the Aust-ro-Gernmns and Bulgarians may combine is already -assured (taking current reports as reliable) apart from whatever force t-lic principal Entente Powers may be able to throw into the Peninsula. On the other hand, if Bulgaria gives satisfactory assurances of pontinuecl neutrality it is not improbable that Greece may take active part in the war with Turkey, She is ambitious of acquiring Smyrna and other territory in Asia Minor, and now that her army is mobilised is presumably prepared to fight for it unless unforseen developments compel her to confine her' activities meantime to the Balkan Peninsula. One report today states that in addition, to having large reserves of munitions available Greece has equipped 400,000 soldiers. This is perhaps an exaggeration : the number is certainly greater than Greece has hitherto been deemed capable of raising, but it is to be noted that'she is now drawing men from her new territory -in Macedonia and elsewhere, gained in the Balkan war, and also that large numbers of refugees from Turkey are available as recruits.

The interesting statement is made in a late message, on the authority of an'ltalian newspaper, the Gorricrc Delia Sera, that the French Ambassador to Greece has informed M. Venizelos that, tho Allies are prepared to land 160,000 men in Macedonia, Though unofficial, the news is not inconsistent with Sin Edward Gkey's recent announcement, nor with the indications which point generally to the imminence of momentous developments in the Near East;

Although the British forccs engaged were apparently not very large the victory which has been won over tho Turks in Mesopotamia implies an important extension of tho operations in that region. The original purpose of the campaign was to protect the pipe-line which runs through territory at the head of the Persian Gulf—an important purposo because tho Persian oilfield represents one source of supply for the Navy. The British, however, have now advanced far beyond the area in which Turkish attacks intended to reach .and cut the pipeline were repelled. Kut-el-Amara-in the vicinity of which the Turks have now been heavily defeated, is on the Tigris, about 250 miles from the head of the Persian |3ulf, and a hundred miles south-east of the city of Bagdad, towards which the Turks aro Going pursued. , The circumstances of the battlo and the pursuit indicate that the British forces in Mesopotamia have been considerably reinforced, and the original scope of the campaign greatly amplified.

Late news of tho main campaigns is nearly all good. Reports by the Western. Allies state definitely that they are making continued headway in Northern Franco aid the Champagne, and German reports to the contrary'may safely bo set down as untrue. The gains of tho Allies are of course, exceedingly important since they are now at many points directly assaulting and extending their hold upon commanding positions, possession of which will facilitate a further advancc. Mention of a very heavy bombardment on-the Lorraine border, and further west, against tho southern face of the German salient extending to the Mouse at St. Miliiel, possibly heralds an assault on the German positions iu

that region. There is little news at time of writing of the Eastern campaign, but a German communique, claiming a measure of success in the area south-west of Dvinsk, serves at the same time to show that the enemy have not readied their present main objective on the northern section of the Russian front. '