PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2575, 24 September 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Bulgaru to-day presents the strange spectaelo of a nation in arms, not so far as is known definitely committed to one side or the other in the war in whioh it is practically certain she will shortly figure as a belligerent. _ It is very probable that a considerable proportion of . the Bulgarian population and army aro unaware of the decision whioh has presumably been reached by their rulers, and a.ro waiting like the rest of the world to hear what that decision is. That a genoral mobilisation of the Bulgarian forces has been ordered affords in itself no ground for surprise. Sinoe the threat of an Austro-Gcr-rnan offensive in the Balkans came into prominence it has been evident that Bulgaria was practically hound to light on one side or the other. That threat need only materialise to remove her freedom of choice in the, matter for her geographical position makes a policy 9f continued neutrality impossible in the event of an Austro-German attempt to penetrate the Balkans. The Bulgarian mobilisation affords strong presumptive evidence that the Ausfcro-Gerniau offensive is on the eve 'of materialising. The only outstanding question so far as Bulgaria herself is concerned—as to the side on which she will elcct to fight—is not definitely answered by the nows in hand, but tho weight of evidence, presented in a series of messages on tbo subject, is f'lwb gbo is about to join hands with the Austro-Gei'maae,

Most of these messages dealing with Bulgaria's action speak for themselves. Tlic fact of the mobilisation is definitely established, and movements of troops are reported, but as yet no destinations are named. So far the situation is open, but the tone of German references to the oontcmplatcd attack on Serbia ancl the apparent uneasiness and suspicion regarding Bulgaria's intentions manifested in Greece, go to indicate that Bulgaria is committed to the cause of the Central Empires. , The fact is not .established, but coming on top of such incidents as the descent of German aeroplanes in Bulgaria, and the reported acceptance of Iron Grosses by King Ferdinand and the members of his Cabinet, to-day's news is highly suggestive. The situation in .any case, is one, that is likely to be quickly determined by events — events which on present indications may be expected to take Oie form of a concerted attack on Serbia. As yet, however, by their own showing, the Serbians have not been £niously atacked. As against the tecent enemy reports which told of a damaging bombardment of the Serbian positions along the northern river-frontiers, there is a Serbian official report to-day which states that the enemy on Sunday last violently bombarded the Danube positions, but that the results were insignificant. The Serbians would oertainly no't exaggerate the effects of the bombardment, but the fact that the enemy have allowed days to pass without following up their bombardment supports a belief that it did not achieve vory important results. *.* * • »

Though the possibility that. Bulgaria may take the wrong turning in the war liijta the Balkan situation to a state of acute tension, she is. not in herself strong enough to sway the balance of _ power in the Near East for or against the AustroGermans._ The real danger in the Balkans is that Rumania and Greece may be induced to abstain from action while Bulgaria hrdps the Aus-tro-Germans to open a road tc< Turkey. In these circumstances the enemy enterprise would be likely to succeed for reasons which were dealt with at some length yesterday—notably the extreme difficulty ' Serbia would experience, if'she were denied Rumanian assistance, ,in preventing the penetration of the narrow northeastern projection of her territory towards- Orsova. If Bulgaria reaily intends to throw in hcr lot with the Austro-Germans slie must presumably be counting upon at least the passive acquiescence of her neighbours on north and south. On facts which are not in dispute, this hope ouigh't to be vain. It is known to. all the world that the Austro-Germans aim at complete mastery and domination of the Balkans, not for the first time in this war, but as a standing feature of their foreign policy. To the Central Empires tfie Balkan Peninsula is merely a link with Turkey and the East, and their designs make no provision for tho continued independence 'of the nations between whom tho Peninsula, is at present divided. If they studied their own interests, Rumania and Greece would bo not less, but more, inclined to,resist an Austvo-Gcrman attempt to traverse the Balkans by tho fact of Bulgarian co-operation in that attempt. It is to be admitted, however. that the considerations bearing upon their national future which should lead them to this decision might be expected to carry almost equal weight with Bulgaria, and have apparently failed to do so.

In an interview published last month, the Bulgarian Prime Ministor (M. Radoslavoff) admitted quite frankly that Bulgaria was in negotiation with both the great parties in the war, and was, in fact, chaffering for tho, most advantageous terms in regard to the territorial expansion upon whioh her aspirations' aro fixed. ■ On his own showing, tho Prime Minister of Bulgaria is as ready to treat with the Empires whose confessed aim it is to absorb the independent. Balkan States as with_ the alliance whioh includes Russia—the Power which has done more than any other to make tho existence of independent Balkan States possible. To this it may be added that Bulgaria, in her negotiations with the Entente has apparently imposed impossible conditions for it was reported not long ago that Serbia had agreed to make the territorial concessions to Bulgaria advised by her Allic-s. This doubtless means that Serbia agreed to cede. Macedonia to her neighbour. It is likely that a! deadlock arose over a Bulgarian demand for immediate ' possession, a demand, resisted by Serbia on the very reasonable ground that a large contingent of her army is drawn from Macedonia, and I/jat immediate cession of this territory would lower tho moral of the army and disorganiseit.

These facts, together with' the cvtrrorit news, make it very possiCTe that Bulgaria intends to assist an AustroGerman enterprise in the Balkans which does not seem to promise any better for herown future than for that of her neighbours, but the situation will only take really definite shape when Rumania and Grcece, as well as Bulgaria, havo shown, what they intend to do. Both taking the field, they would bring such powerful reinforcements to aid as would much more tifiin neutralise the entry of Bulgaria- on the opposite side, and might create an impassable barrier to the Austro-German advance. On, the other hand, if Bulgaria co-'operates 'with an AustroGerman invading army, and Rumania and Greece, or even Rumanin only, stand aside, the Entente will be faced by snoh a military problem in Turkey as will make that country, in a very real sense the storm-centre of the war. • ,

* * * # The Russians are shown to-day to have very materially improved their position in tho Vilna region, where a German outflanking movement has assumed serious proportions during the last few days. It was reported early in the week that a strong force of German cavalry had reached one of the Moscow railways at Vileika, nearly 70 miles cast, of Vilna. A Petrograd communique now reports Russian victories on or near this railway south of Vileuca, and also twenty miles west of that placc. In reference to the latter action ib is stated that the retreating Germans are fleeing in disorder towards the passages—presumably passages between the lakes and marshes in which the u'hole ol this northern, region abounds, but the reference ma.y bo to the crossings of the River Vilia,' which Hows immediately north of the village of Smorgono, from whioh tho Germans were ejected. For the time being, at any rate, the Russians have thus rolled back that anctioa of the enemy advance wbich jjjnjli gravely threatened! the oom-

munications of their oentral armies, holding the front south from the Vilna region towards the Pripet marshes. These armies arcs now retiring eastward, though tlio actual position reached is not made clear by messages in hand. Further north tho onemy is still held in check along the River Dviua, which runs northeast to the. Gulf of Riga, and heavy i fighting is reported west of Dyinsk, a junction midway betwen the port of Riga and Vilna. As a whole, the official news seems to. bear out tho statement made in a- late message published yesterday, that Marshal yon Hindenburg's trap is closing tco late. * * * # Comments by correspondents upon the still critical situation in the northern section of- the Russian front show in some eases a disposition to question tho wisdom of the Russian commanders in holding on so long to Vilna and other sections of the line to the south. In particular, Colonel Repington, the Times military correspondent, suggests that this policy represents a departure from the wise strategy of the Grand Duke Nicholas. The opinion gains a certain amount' of support even from the latest Petrograd report in hand, which describes the retreat from Vilna as one of the most brilliant operations of the war. It is brilliant apparently because the Russians made a splendid recovery from an almost hopeless position. When they retreated from Vilna their communications were cut by great masses of cavalry thrown forward by the enemy. _ Marshal von Hindenbtjeg hoped in these circumstances to compel the Russians to either fight a decisive battle or retreat to the south, and so throw other armies into confusion. The. Russians, adopted a third and bolder course. While the j main enemy advance was held in check, portion of the Russian army turned its back on Vilna, and swept away the enemy forces which had lodged on its line of retreat. It was a truly magnificent achievement, and unless the facts have been overstated matters on the Eastern front I as a result have returned to normal —that is to say, tho Russians are retreating with unbroken lines and in no present danger of envelopment.