PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2574, 23 September 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Two areas which came sharply into prominence in yesterday's news—the northern section of the Russian front, and the Serbian frontierstill hold first' claim to attention in a- survey of the current war reports. In both' areas the situation remains ■highly oritical, but news in hand does not show that in either it has materially developed in a manner unfavourable to the Allies. The Germans, indeed, are shown to be continuing their . advance east and south of Vilna-. The danger existing in this region—a danger frankly admitted in yesterday's Petr'ograd communique—does not relate to a further loss of territory by the Russians, but to tho _ possibility that somo of their armies 'on the front extending south from tho Yilna region to the Pripet marshes may be cut off and compelled to choose between a battle at hopeless odds or surrender. In these circumstances, the safe withdrawal of their,armies to a line north and south of Minsk, more than 'a hundred miles east of Vilna, would be a qualified success for the Russians—it would at all events represent the skilful avoidance of a heavy and possibly disastrous defeat. There is no official news in hand warranting a belief that the threatened Russian armies have escaped from the German net, but an unofficial message asserts that the situation, which was momentarily disquieting, is now good, and there is nothing at the moment to 1 put this possibly .optimistic estimate of the position 'out of court. #.* # *

As to tho Serbian frontier, the definite developments of which expectations were awakened by yesterday's news, a-r« no.t yet manifest. There is no word fat time of writing) of the heav,'' blow which the Aus'fcroGermrins must strike if they contemplatemir ittem-pt to force the passage of the Danube by way of opening the dor for a march through Serbia and Bulgaria to Turkey. » * * *

Knowledge of the true state of affairs, on the Serbian frontier—for the time being the key-position to the complex Balkan situation—is not materially advanced by the news in hand. So far as these reports go the'military situation in that region is unchanged. It is difficult to believe that the Austro-Gorman bombardment of the Serbian positions along the Save and Danube was an isolated- and inconclusive incident, but there is nothing meautimo to Nln* th.?.(. it mf. anything There is* as usuai, no lack ot mea-

sages dealing with the trend of political and diplomatic events, hut they arc quite inconclusive, exespt perhaps in further justifying such suspicions as are entertained of tho good faith of Bulgaria. Ono correspondent at Bucharest states very confidently that tho Germanic Powers, awa.i'c of Rumania's determination to intervene, if Serbia, should he attacked, have definitely abandoned the contemplated attack. It is not by any means oertain that Rumania is committed to taking the field on behalf of Serbia if that country is attacked, and tho fact that sho did not intervene when Serbia was beaten almost to her knees in earlier passages of the war, affords rather sbrong presumptive evidenco supporting an opposite conclusion. It is possible, however, that Rumania has had to reconsider her attitude towards the wa.r, in view of Bulgaria's apparent inclination to throw in her lot with tho Austro-Gormaas, a development opening up a real danger of Austro-German domination of the Balkans, unless powerful curator-measures are taken. While Rumania maintains her present sphinx-like attitude, it would bo foolish to take her aid for gfanted, but it is to be said that it is wholly in her interest to oppose any attempt by the Central Empires to penetrate tho Balkan Peninsula, and that her opposition would excrciso a very important and possibly decisive influence upon events.

To realise this it is only neoessary to consider tho circumstances in which) the Austro-Germans would mako their predicted . onslaught. Looking at the map it would seem natural to expect them to attempt their main attack on the Danube as near as possible to the main railway running south through Sorbia and Bulgaria to Turkey. According to their own report, the Germans made one of the appr'oaohes to this line a particular objective in their recent bombardment. This, however, proves nothing. Not long ago the Serbian Minister' at Rome (M. Ristich) reviewed the possibilities of just such an attack as is now said to 1)3 imminent, and his conclusion was that it was only likely to succeed if made on the Danube near Orsova, a town lying closo to the junction of the Serbian and Rumanian frontiers. He added that in such an event Rumania would be compelled to movo if she did not want to be cut out of Europe. It is impossible that Rumania by this time has reached tho same conclusion. Her position at all events is plain. She is so placed as to bo able to exert a very powerful and probably commanding influence upon events in the area where- Serbian resistance to an Aus-tro-Geraian'army invading the Balkans is' liable "to fail. In other words, Rumania is practically callcd Upon to accept or_ prevent an AustroGerman penetration of the Balkans, with all the consequences that it would entail. * v * * «

One potent factor militating against an Ausbro-German attempt to penotrato Serbia along the route of tho main railway which runs south from Belgrade, was touched upon by M. Bistich when he said: "Rather than risk our Army in an attack on Hungary we have preferred to prepare a resistance which would surprise thfl world if. tho Auatro-G-ermans attempt to cross our country." There is no reason to tlou-bt that this is a literal state-' ment of fact. Tho Serbian Army proved its quality by inflicting crushing defeat upon greatly superior Austrian forces in one of the hardest-fought campaigns of the war. It suffered severely in- tho process, and later by the ravages of disease, but its'gallant exertions won an extended period for recovery, of which full advantage has been taken. The Serbian Army must bo regarded as formidable beyond its numerical strength. It should bo now better supplied with artillery and munitions a.nd other equipment than it has over been; its soldiers have proved themselves splendid fighting men, they havo had the experience of their-previous campaign, and they arc fighting among their 'own mountains. Also, Serbia,, has been assisted by her Allies with both men and material, possibly to a much greater extent than is generally known. It is obvious that the Serbian resistance to invasion would reach its maximum effect along the rivers protect-. ing 1 the northern frontier, and, assuming the passage of these rivers to bo forced, along the line of the central railway. '

The north-eastern, extremity of Serbia-, immediately south, of Orsova and north of . Bulgaria, . is a narrow tract of country from thirty to forty milea wide. It is broken, hilly country, but the Serbian diplomat who has been quoted no doubt spoke with knowledge in assuming that it represented a practicable route of invasion. It is not crossed by a railway, but there is a railway to Orsova _ from the north (which turns into Rumania beyond that place), and thero arc railway approaches from the south, though tho most convenient line bends into Serbian territory to join the BelgradeSofia railway at Nish, before continuing its northward course. Assuming that they are minded to take common action, the Austro-Germans and Bulgarians have in this area-re-markable _ for joining forces, but theso facilities are to a great extent governed' by the attitude of Rumania.. If Rumania stood aside tho Austro-Germans and Bulgarians should have no great difficulty in mastering the thirty 'or fortymiles of country separating their' armies. So much achieved, tho Austro-Germans would be in immediate possession of a corridor leading into Bulgaria, and so into Turkey. They'could widen the corridor at their leisure, and instead of being oa-lled upon to bear down tho full weight of the Serbian re-( sistanco in a frontal attack along tho main railway route,., . they could strike across that line from tho cast and so tako the Serbians at a serious disadvantage. Apart from what the Allies may have done or may be able to do in thi\ way of reinforcing Serbia! if Bulgaria takes the field against her, practically everything, as far as the_ region under review is concerned, will depend, upon the action of Rumania. Unless they are in quite unsuspected strength, the Serbians could hardly be expected to resist the coincident pressure of the. Austro-Germans in the north and the Bulgarians in the south, in an area of country from thirty to forty miles in width. On the other hand, .with -Rumania in the field, an attempt to force a passage through this area would be apt to end in disaster. Armies attempting it, either from north or south, would be 'open to simultaneous attacks on both- flanks. At the present moment, therefore, Rumania's decision in reference to the predioted Austro-Germau offensive must lv< reß*,vdci» «,#!» of Uw moofiatioufi issues of ta« js&r. ,

Not for the first time it is reported to-day that a German aeroplane flying over Bulgaria was forced to descend, and that tho crew have beep interned. An exactly-similar incident was reported not longago. The circumstances are suspicious,_ and rather suggest that Bulgaria is acquiring a supply of German aeroplanes by methods to which the enemies of the Central Empires cannot legally take exception.

Messages in hand leave the position in the Baltic Provinces undetermined. An enemy report claims progress east and south of Vilna, but into Areas less advanced than were reported yesterday to bavo been penetrated by their cavalry. The fate and effect of tho great cavalry drivo which is working ahead of tho main German advance has yet to bo disclosed. A late Russian communique makes no mention of the northern section of the front, but reports further successes in Southern ltussia and Galicia. *»# , *

The outstanding item of _ hcwb regarding the Turkish campaign is a message from Athcis reporting an exodus of the civilian population from Constantinople If it is accurate this .woukf point to apprehensions of a Russian attack, for Constantinople, so far as our news goes to show, is not imminently threatened from any other quarter. No change is reported at time _ of writing in tho Gallipoli campaign, except that the Turks are hurrying reinforcements into the peninsula. They no doubt anticipate, and with good reason, an early resumption of the' Allied assault upon the positions covering the Narrows, A very satisfactory. item, if it is true, is an unofficial message from Petrograd stating that the Russians have sunk an enemy submarine in tho Black Sea.

Messages relating to the Western front tell chiefly of a continuous bombardment of the German lines. Details of the destruction wrought suggest that the Allied artillery is in force very greatly superior to that of the enemy.