PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2573, 22 September 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

The complex and highly critical situation which centres at the moment in the Balkan Peninsula has not been definitely cleared up at time of writing—in particular the attitude of Bulgaria remains uncertain—but it is dealt with from various standpoints in a number of interesting reports. In a Beuter message from New York the bald statement is made that the German War Office announces a successful attaok by Germans upon Serbians. An attack on Serbia would doubtless be the opening move of the Austro-Germans if they decided to attempt a march through tho Balkans to the relief of Turkey, but if such an attack is made it will provide much more definite and momontous news than is contained in this story from New York. The circumstances in which Serbia is placed afford little room for minor events gradually _ leading up to a decisive culmination; The first barrier on the Austro-German road to Turkey is the 'Serbian northern frontier, protected on its eastern section by the Danube and further west by the Save. If the Germans launch their attaok it will be their initial task to force the passage of one or other of these rivers—most probably tho Danube, because it covers the narrow north-eastern projection of Serbia (only about thirty miles across) which separates the Austrian territory north of the Danube from Bulgaria. .It is likely i.tliat the first intimation of an Aus-tro-German offensive in the Balkans, if it takes practical shape, will bo a great battle on the Danube.

The continued failure of Bulgaria' to make a definite declaration of policy in relation to tho war is at once the most perplexing and the most threatening feature of the Balkan situation. Rumania stands in quite a different position. Further assurances are given to-day that she is determined to resist any violation of her territory, but it is not suggested that thero is any immediate prospect of her joining the Entente m the war, unless she is made the target of Austi'o-Germnn aggression. No such attitude is open to Bulgaria should the "Austro-Gemans launch their threatened offensive. She must oppose or aid it, since she lies across its path. In these circumstances her attitude can only be regarded as suspicious, One message to-day, quoting Bulgarian newspapers, repeats the. somewhat improbable statement recently attributed to the Bulgarian Prime Minister, that the concession of territory exacted from Turkey represents a reward for tho neutrality hitherto observed by Bulgaria, but without political engagements. It is added that as a con-sequcncc-of tho treaty between Bulgaria and Turkey the plans of the German General Staff have undergone certain modifications. This is perhaps intended to convey the ideathat' Bulgaria has avoided any entanglements with the Austro-Ger-j nmns, ant- chat us h conscquenai ths i latter lrnve abandoned . of

advancing through the Balkans to I the relief of Turkey, but surround-' ing circumstances, so far as they are disclosed, do not make it very i probable that this is the actual state of affairs. It is known that strenuous efforts have been made to promote a league of the Balkan States and tliat concessions of territory have been offered to Bulgaria to induce her to co-operate in tho movement. Tho league has not been formed and Bulgaria is evidently the stumbling-block to its formation. Justification is thus afforded for an inference that Bulgaria is more or less under Austro-German influence. In these circumstances more weight than they would otherwise carry must be-accorded to reports that the Turks are removing the artillery from their 1 northern frontier fortresses in order to transport it to Gallipoli. These reports imply at least that Turkey is under no apprehension of a -Bulgarian invasion, and '■ this comfortable conviction would hardly be possible unless Bulgaria had given more' definite assurances to Turkey and her Germanic allies than have been admitted.

As matters stand it must be reckoned a distinct possibility that Bulgaria may actively aid and abet an Austro-German effort to penetrate the Balkans; and this is the most disquieting element in a very troubled The position, however, is not without redeeming features. Whatever Eumania may elcct to do, and it is .conceivable that circumstances may leave her some freedom of choice, instincts of self-preservation would strongly impel Greece to take active part;with the Entente if Bulgaria joined the Germanic allies. Greeoo is in possession !of Salonika and other Aegean ports which Bulgaria covets and she cannot afford to stand aside with Bulgaria co-operating in operations aiming at the mastery and domination of tho whole Balkan Peninsula, with the possible exception of Rumania. Greek cooperation would confer upon the Allies an open door into the Balkan Peninsula through which -they could send'reinforcements to the assistance of Serbia. Account must bo taken also of the possibility of a Russian attack on Turkey by way of the Black _ Sea, a possibility all the greater since it is highly prob-s-ble tha-t . the Austro-Germans must draw any troops to be employed. in a Balkan offensive from tho Easternfront, and so lighten the pressure bearing upon the Russians in that I quarter.

More definite- news of the situation on the Serbian frontiers is contained in Austrian and German communiques now in hand. The Austrian report speaks in genera' terms of a bombardment of tho Serbian positions on tho south banks of the Save and Danube, but in the Berlin communique a definite objective is named. It is stated tha-t the German artillery has commenced a bombaa'dment of Semcndria. a railway town on the south bans of tho Danube, east of Belgrade. Semenclria is not on the main railway, which runs south through Belgrade, •but is at tho end of a branch lino which junctions with the main railway about 20 miles further south. Tho Germans declare that their bombardment drove off the Serbians and silenced their batteries, but the matter will only be put definitely to tho test when the Danube is crossed by the enemy, and this is not yet reported. It seems probable, however, that tho offensive so often predicted has at length materialised. * * » »

News of the Eastern campaign indicates that the Russians b aro in rather serious difficulties on tlio northei'n section of their front. Tho Germans havo followed up the capture of Vilna by a rapid cavalry dash into the country to the east. One report speaks of fifty thousand horsemen being so engaged. A Petrocommunique speaks of heavy fighting about fifty miles east of Vilna, Dut an unofficial message, also from Petrograd, reports that the Germans havo captured a station on the Moscow railway (Vileika), 'about a dozen miles further east. The immediate German objectivo is Minsk, a railway junction 110 miles east-south-east of Vilna. Minsk is in railway communication with Moscow by another line than the ono tho Germans are reported to be astrido at Vileika. Developing on its present lines, the German advance threatens to outflank and sever the communications of tho Russian armies along a great part of the' lino of battle extending south from the Vilna region, and the Russian official report makes no attempt to minimise tho seriousness of the position. On the contrary, it is -stated that tho Russian troops aro showing high military virtues and maintaining their coolness and assurance under circumstances of extreme gravity. The implied admission scarcely calls for comment. It is evident that the Russian northern armies aro in a, position of extreme peril, and are contending against greater difficulties than they havo encountered since the evacuation of the Polish salient was successfully completed. It is reported also that tho Russians are arresting their southern offensive, in Galicia and the neighbouring territory, in face of strong enemy reinforcements. This perhaps implies that, troops are being witndrawn from the southern front to rcinforce tho threatened northern armies. That the latter area is thinly manned is sufficiently evidenced by the fact that the Germans have been able to'ac-

complish so much through the agency of a comparatively limited force of cavalry. * * * * Practically the only, news of the Gallipoli campaign in hand at time of writing is contained in a lengthy dispatch from Sir lan Hamilton, which'does not deal, with very recent events, but throws highly interesting 'iglit upon the developments which followed upon the landing and the earlier attacks described in Sik lan Hamilton's last dispateh. Some comments upon the cam-paicru by a German newspaper, which are , published to-day, take the line that a determined offensive by the Allies is to be expected before the winter sets in, and that afterwards winter conditions and tho Turks between them will make short work of the invasion. The prediction of a determined attempt to make an end of Turkish resistance before tho winter is no doubt well-ioundcd, and it certainly. cannot be taken for granted that the attempt will fail. As to the rest, if a winter _ campaign proves necessary, its rigours will lie felt by the Turks as well as by tlie Allies. _ The latter may be at additional disadvantage _ on account of the increased difficulties of sea transport, but their enemies are not more likely to succeed in driving them into tho sea than in i their repeated attempts to do it ! during tlio summer.