PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2566, 14 September 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

' It is no longer possible to doubt that the Russians arc already beginning to reap the early fruits of their strategy of- retreating to con- [ quer. Detail developments in the German campaign reported to-day include a threat against Vilna by a turning movement on the north and' continued activity in the area north of Galicia, but the broad features of the situation remain unaltered. _ The Austro-Germans still have it in _ their power to extend their invasion to some extent, but only some extraordinary and totally unforeseen turn of events will now bring them within sight of the decisive ■ victory over the Russian armies which alono would repay the stupendous exertions they have put forth since the Galician offensive opened in May. The military correspondent of tho London Times, no doubt basing his opinion on fuller information than is available here at the moment, declares confidently that the Russian armies are now out of danger, with secure lines of retreat. Detail news of the campaign, as far as it goes, supports this opinion. The Russians are nowhere at present , threatened .with any such great enveloping movement as compelled the evacuation of ths Polish salient. They_ are in a position to ofter the maximum resistance all along the line, and for some days Austro-German progress, except for a limited advance in the provinces immediately north of Galicia, has been almost imperceptible. * * # *

The possibility _ that the Germans may yet succeed in laying hands on vilna, and may gain some further ground towards the southern end of their lines, is overshadowed by the fact that they have signally failed to achieve the main purpose of their campaign, and are within a few weeks of weather which will not only hinder and. impede their operations, but will expose them to a serious rislc of disaster. During the- months of fine weather thoy have failed to gain a decision over the Russian armies. _ They now have to cope not only with the unbeaten Russian armies, but with all the privations and difficulties which winter will bring in its train. Just what a winter campaign in Russia will moan to the Austro-Germans it is not easy to estimate, but the visible facts are impressive. The Russians, though their communications and linos of supply are. not first-class, have <it least the advantage of being in direct touch with thorn. The enemy, on the other hand, are fighting in some places hundreds of miles ahead of their own frontiers, with a wide bolt of naked and inhospitable country behind them, through which the whole of their supplies must be transported. It is quite certain that if the Austro-Germans succeed in maintaining their invasion under these conditions, they will do it at terrible cost, which will profoundly affect the balance of power in the war.

The position now reached in the war is very ably summed up by Me. Lloyd-Geokge_ in an utterance cabled to-day. Russia, as lie remarks, has made a magnificent contribution in the struggle for European freedom. For a year, though desperately handicapped by lack of equipment, she has absorbed tho energies of one half of tho German military forces, and four-fifths of the Austrian, and she has emerged from the struggle unbeaten. Her own very heavy losses arc compensated by enormous losses inflicted on the enemy. Russia has carried her full share of the burden of the war,_ and has gained tho priceless breathing-space and time to arm and equip now armies of which' it was the supremo object of the enemy to deprive her. At the same time tho position has its obvious limitations. Russia is no doubt capable of levying a terrible toll upon the Austro-Gerinan armies if thoy endeavour to maintain, their .invasion iu its ;y«eufc bcq.r.o (during fcho win-

ter, and she may be able to achieve a good deal in the same direction even if they resign part of tlie invaded territory and _ retire to the Vistula and tlio Niemcn, which would probably be the wisest policy. Between a winter campaign of this character, however, and a resumption of the offensive from which Russia was compelled to desist in May, there a very wide margin, and obviously she has a righ't to expect the action of her Allies in their several spheres of activity to afford her substantial aid in recovering this margin.

No good purpose will bo served by overlooking tlie fact that the sum of Russia's achievement lias been to avoid crushing defeat, and that there must be decisive developments ;a tho Dardanelles or in the Western campaign before she can hope to improve upon this position so far as major developments in the war are concerned. Meantime, tlie Aus-tro-Germans in Russia are saddled with a costly campaign holding out. no prospect of decisive advantage, and the Western Allies are given further time to mature their preparations for the grand offensive, and ciroumstances equally favour and demand a vigorous prosecution of the Dardanelles campaign.

General agreement as to the complete success of the Russian retreat and "as to its representing tlie only policy, could have saved the Russian armies from the imminent peril. by which- they were menaced a few months ago, has a distinct bearing upon the transfer of tho Grand Duke Nicholas from the main theatre to tho Caucasus. 'It must be assumed, if tho Grand Duke has been deprived of his command, that he was displaced by a political agitation at a time when his strategy, after many critical weeks, was being brilliantly Justified. It is less easy to believe this than that the ohange implies .that the Russian military activities will take a new direction in the near future. Whatever its actual developments may bo, the character of s the main campaign during the winter months should leave the Russians with a certain reserve of force in hand which could not be more profitably employed than against the Turks, and the chances are that! it will be so employed. » • •

Detail developments of the southern campaign in the Eastern theatre present one peculiar, feature. The Russians are apparently unablo to ariAot the slow advance of the enemy in the districts lying north of the Galician frontier, and yet they have won further victories in Galicia itself, where the enemy are apparently muoh better off' in the matter of communications. Petrograd reports that heavy captures of prisoners have been made both north and south of Tarnapol, in Galicia, and that the general situation is well in hand. As to the area to. the north it is unofficially suggested that the Ausfcro-Germans may succeed in reaching Kovno,'a fortress standing'due north of the eastem frontier of Galicia., In the Baltic Provinces the Germans have dosisted from their attempts to force tho River Dwina, south-east of Riga, and are attempting to master a further section of- tho Petrograd railway by an eastward advance in the area lying north of Itovno and Vilna.' It is adrhitted that they have made somo progress in this new enterprise, but their line of march lies through a region of lakes and marshes,_ and the Russians, may yet sucoeed in arresting the advance. *** # .

The contradictory character of much of the news that comes through relating to tho Balkans is emphasised to-day in aT Rome message denying the accuracy of German reports that Turkey and Bulgaria have concluded an agreement involving the cession of territory by the former to the latter oountry. Ono detail in Italian message possibly deserves special attention. It is a suggestion that Bulgaria will only move when the European situation has been cleared up by decisive de**lopments—that is to say, when she is quite certain' of being on the winning side. This is probably very near tho truth. » # » * Only minor events are reported at time of writing on the Western front, and the same applies to the Dardanelles. Suoh news of the Austro-Italian campaign as is avail-' able indicates that the Austrians are reinforcing their armies on the Isonzo front in an effort to stem the Italian attack in that region.