PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2563, 10 September 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Exceptional interest attaches to the announcement that the Tsar has takon over the chief, command o£ the Russian forces on land and sea. and that the Grand Duke Nicholas has been appointed Vioeroy of the Caucasus. The announcement is peculiar in more than ono'respect, .Accepted at its face value it would mean that tho Grand Duke has been superseded in his command because fault has been found with his conduct of tho Eastern campaign. _ It is possible, of course, that this simple explanation' of the facts is the truo one, but it must be observed that such an explanation is inherently improbable, and that it seems much , more likely that tho reported changes in the Russian • high com.mancl 1 are preliminary to new and highly important developments in the prosecution of the war. The Tsar's assumption of the supreme command over the Russian forces on land and sea is obviously _ a polite fiction except in so far as it relates to a' measure of authority he has always exercised and can exercise as well from Petrograd or Moscow as from any headquarters established in the actual theatre of war. The limitations imposed upon tho Tsar as a war commander equally by his natural bent and by his education and experience are fairly well known. Nicholas the Second is probably as little fitted to actually control armies in the field as any royal personage in Europe. As the Encyclopacdici Britannica remarks: "Though he received, like all heirapparents to the Russian throne, a ccrtain amount of military training, his personal tastes did not lie in that direction." 'The point hardly needs emphasising that this is not tho man to personally direct the strategy of Imperial land and sea forces in the greatest war tha. world has ever seen.

■ In norm'al circumstances, the natural sequel to the removal of a high commander is "the appointment of bis successor. On the news in hand this condition has not be-m fulfilled in this _ instance except in the nominal. assumption by the Tsar of the duties the Grand Duke Nicholas is laying down. Unless later news puts a different aspect on the matter it will be reasonable to supposo that the removal of tho Grand Duke is as nominal as the appointment of his royal successor. From this point of wow it is likely that the key to the position is to be found in the passage of., the Tsar's . rescript to the Grand Duke, which runs: "The invasion by the enemy of the northwestern front, which necessitates the greatest possible concentration, civil and military, as well as unification of command in the field, has turned attention from the southern front, where it is recognised that there is necessity for your assistance and counsels." It is only necessary to assume'that this is a simplo statement, of fact to find an ample explanation of the changes that are being made in tho Russian command. Unless an unduly optimistic view of developments in' the main Eastern campaign has been taken in many rcccnt communications on the subject, the Russians arce now in a position, or nearly so,' to hold, harass, and weaken thoir enemies during autumn and winter. So much being accepted, or even if the actual state of affairs is by no means so good, Russia cannot more profitably employ any forces which can ; bo spared from her main campaign than in pressing the attack on Turkey with the utmost possiblo vigour and in order to sccure the earliest possiblo opening of tho Bosphorus and tho Dardanelles.

In its most _ important aspect tho campaign against Turkey is practically part and paroel of the main Eastern campaign. Britain and Fs\ance have reasons of their own for bringing Turkey to her knees, but tho compelling motive of the Dardanelles campaign is the necessity pf putting an end to ths isolation of Russia. Victory over Turkey will enable Russia 'to obtain a free and rapid flow of military supplies which, sooner or later—probably within a space of a few months —would enable her to send adc£ tional millions of men into the field. It is known that Russia lias trained very large reserve forces iir excess of the number she can at present equip and additions to her active forces would follow very closely upon expansion of equipment. It is also ail important factor that a very large proportion of the Russian grain harvest, now gathered, is awaiting an outlet 'which it 'must find by way of the Black Sea and the Dardanelles. The campaign against Turkey is the grand exception to tho general rule that the Entente PcnVcrß can afford te play a wait-' i?S gflmis ths .war, confident^

the knowledge that the longer, within reason, a clccisivc conflict is postponcd the greater will be tho strength relative to that ot tlie enemy in which they will enter that conflict. In tho war with Turkey, on the other hand, it is so important to the Allies that victory should be won at the earliest possible moment that only inability to spare greater forces will account for Russia not having played a more important part in it than she has done hitherto. Sines the decisive defeat of the Turkish invasion of the Caucasus many months ago the Russians have done nothing more than advance a little way into Northern Asia Minor. This, together with some naval successes in the Black Sea and the very useful service of constantly ■ raiding 'the Turkish coal supplies, sums up their operations against Turkey to date. The possibility now opened up is that these limited, though not unimportant, operations, may be. developed with greatly increased forces in a fashion •calculated to bring the war with Turkey to a much speedier decision than would otherwise bo possible. * # -# *

In support of -an opinion that this is probably the turn events are taking it may be recalled that tho appointment of the Grand Duke Nicholas as Viceroy of the Caucasus was preceded by tho appointment of his Chief of 'Staff (General Yanushkevitch) to the post of AssistantViceroy in that province. It is more I reasonable to believe that Russia has sent her greatest soldiers to supervise a now campaign of supreme importance than that a-ny fault has been found with the past direction and control of the main campaign. Dcsnite the present sacrifices that it has "entailed "the Russian campaign has been acclaimed as the- work of a master strategist. So far as wo know no one has ever suggested that the Russian armies in their present state of equipment could possibly have held the Polish salient against such forces as Germany, and Austria have brought to bear. Resort to the traditional policy which has enabled Russia to triumph over her enemies in the past was made inevitable in this war by the magnitude of tlie Aust-ro-German invasion. Tho policy being adopted, the Russian retreat—a retreat of almost continuous battle—has teen carried out in a fashion whioh adds a new and glorious page to Russian history. In all human probability the enemy's last hope 'of a decisive victory on the Eastern front has now departed. This is tho record of the: Grand Duke Nicholas unless available information concerning the campaign is to bo set aside as worthless.. That the holder of such a record has been relegated in disgrace to a minor command cannot be believed until it is definitely attested. ■ * * * * Account must, of course,_ be taken of the possibility that political agitation may avail to bring about changes in no way warranted by military developments. An agitation which has met witß wide censure has been conducted in Great Britain by a section of the newspaper press, and it was mentioned a day or two ago that General Joffre's policy of biding,his time is strongly opposed by a political ooterie in France. But if such a -campaign has been conducted in Russia against tho Gkand Duke. Nicholas it has been concealed with remarkablo success. He has figured throughout as an able commander,- trusted . and respected equally by the civil population of his country and by the armies he has handled with such splendid address.

The true force and bearing of these momentous. developments in Russia will in any case soon be made manifest. A key to whatever is in doubt will be supplied in the nature of the Russian operations against Turkey in the near future. .If these operations aro to be broadened out they will not of necessity be confined to a further invasion of Asia Minor from the Caucasus. TheirBlack Sea fleet gives the Russians a command of that area challenged only by enemy submarines, and the landing of a Russian army with -a view to an advance on _ Constantinople remains a possibility. As to the present invasion of Asia Minor' the positions held by the Russians are separated from Constantinople and the Bosphorus by more than 600 miles of country through which the means of communication are about as bad as they could be. Nevertlieless a powerful army of invasion operating in this region would very usefully increase the pressure bearing upon the Turks, and even if it did nothing-more would exert a valuable indirect influence upon the Dardanelles campaign.

Stjch developments' in the Eastern campaign as are reported at time of writing are in the main satisfactory from the standpoint of the Russians. The progress claimed by the enemy cast and south-east of Grodno was to be expected. It is more important that the Russians aa-e apparently still firmly holding their own in the Baltic Provinces and in Eastern Galicia. In the latter region, _ indeed, an Austrian ' communique speaks of a Russian offensivo which was only in part oheckmated by a counter-attack. * * * * Another unofficial report speaks of progress by the Allies at Suvla Bay, but without going into _ details. Turkish communiques, which ' are quite unreliable, continue to report unsuccessful bombardments by tho Allies and successful work by their own guns. D * # m * The general action in the region of Yores,, in Arfcois (Northern Franco) and in the Aijonne, which is mentioned in a Frenoh communique to-day, probably relates mainly to artillery bombardment, but a later message mentions an unsuccessful atta-ck made in the Argohne by two German divisions, probably as great a force as tho Crown Princo employed in his recent effort to get astride the railway approaching Verdun from the west. Other news of the Western campaign relates chiefly to air attacks upon German railway and military depots, which appear to have resulted in very considerable damage to the enemy. * * » »

Reports of further SSepgelih raids in England are chiefly interesting on account of the fact that the raiders have again managed to drop bombs on some part of London. Only meagre particulars are supplied, but it is mentioned that the bomb-drop-ping was responsible for few casualties in the case* of the London raid, though in tho_ eastern _ counties 5G people were killed or injured. Tho general indications are that comparatively slight havoc was wrought by the raiders, and tliero is no possible reason to. doubt the accuracy of tho official, reports in this respect. As was recently explained by Mt;. B.u.roun the reports arc purposely mudo brief and in i*.

spccts vnguc. not with any idea of conccftling c(amagc_ done, but to avoid any risk of giving information to the. enemy which would assist them in future raids,