PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2556, 2 September 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

> ' Perhaps the most significant feature of the war news for some little time past—a featuro again apparent to-day—is that it is scrappy and disjointed in a fashion absurdly out of keeping with the vastly important, matters with which it deals. Secrecy _and a jealous hold upon all useful information are, of oours'e, standing and inevitable" features-'of the conduct of the war, but within the permanent limits thus, imposed" there are degrees, and it has happened time after timi : that some great enterprise by ono side or the other has broken suddenly out of a period, of obscurity and uncertainty due to the news of the war being contracted within even 'narrower limits than are ordinarily imposed by the censorship. This .is'merely to say that the high commands directing the contending forces,in.tie war have made it' their constant endeavour to secure the advantages of surprise and even in operations of the,magnitude to which this war has given rise they have at times more or" less completely succeeded. * * * « If there were no other ground to go upon, the paucity of news at the present time about so'many matters of vital moment would in'itself .indicate that this is a period of preparation for imminent great events. Greater, armies are afoot than the world has ever seen, and the news in hand about one main campaign is that the Bussians are still retreating and about the. other little more is told than that an airship hangar near Ghent has been destroyed by Allied airmen. Perhaps, the best way to grasp the magnitude of the events in prospect for which such mighty preparations are being made, is to consider the enormous margin between what the n6ws tells and what it might' tell. . It is a common and quite probably well-grounded' belief that the next few months will witness one of tho most intensely active phases of the war. By this time last yea;- the French and , British armies had been swept back nearly to Paris; the Bussians had invaded East Prussia? and' in Gali.cia were within striking distance of Lemberg. Now, as then, matters are ripe for big developments; and so far as tho Entente Powers are concerned, great military efforts are much more possible now than they were at this time .last year. • * * *. * So far as the secrecy which is the essential preliminary to surprise attack is concerned, the opposing forces in the war ar« upon, an equality if they conceal, their plans with equal care; but the measure of initiative they possess—the limits within which they are capable of launching anything in the nature of a surprise attack intended to be decisive—is controlled by the resources at their command, and looking at the matter from this standpoint it *is perhaps a distinctly hefpeful instead of a depressing fact that the .plans of the Entente Powers are veiled in profound secrecy. It is being suggested at present that Germany is about to launch an offensive designed- to give her command of the Balkans and the Dardanelles, and so refasten the bonds from which Russia riow has a prospect of escaping. That Germany meditates something , of the kind is'not .impossible, but on what is known about the balance of forces in the war it should be more likely that she will have to meet a surprise attack in any one of half a dozen possible, directions than that she will be able to embark upon a new and powerful aggression. In any case, it is certain that tlie prospects of the Entente armies in whatever test of strength may take place before winter are in no way impaired by the fact that few, men, and probably no enemy, can say with assurance where they will strike. • * * * News of a kind concerning the Balkans is as copious as ever, but most of it is! speculative father than informative in character. Servia and tho trinity of neutral States and the partly-defined Austro-German menace on the northern frontiers of Servia and Rumania still constitute the elements of an unsolved puzzle. In so far as they depart from what has been already said about these matters to-day's reports are in the main of a hopeful trend, both as regards military and diplomatic developments. A message from Rome, for instance, denies the truth of the German report which declared lately that Turkey and Bulgaria had concluded an agreement covering the cession of territory to the latter country. A Berlin roport. admitting that the signing of the Turco-Bul-garian treaty, has been "postppned." looks very much like a clumsy attempt, to gloss over unpalatable facts.. It alleges that Bulgaria has postponed signing tho treaty on account of an Entente declaration that this would be regarded as ail unfriendly act, but that the agreement between Turkey and Bulgaria is, nevertheless, complete. This seems ; very far-fetched.. It is .difficult to imagine Bulgaria withholding her ■ signature to a treaty, under Entente. ; pressure, and yet committing herself to the agreement to which the signature would give formal shape. It is much more likely, as is suggested by tho Paris Fii/arn, that Bulgaria : is playing a waiting game, and usibg ' the negotiations, with Tlirkc-y us ti ( lever to induce oervift and Greece

to make desired concessions of territory. ■ • - > ■ » . » * «. Such , other; references to the Balkans as are published to-day go in ■ the main to indicate that the Entente is bringing very powerful influence to bear in tbe direction of promoting a Balkan League hostile to the Germanic allies, and that the reinstatement of M. Venezelob in Greeco may possibly turn the scale in favour of such a development. It is not .pretended that Bulgaria's cooperation can bo reckoned upon with certainty,' but the point is emphasised that she is apparently retaining full liberty to negotiate with the Quadruple Entente when Servia's intentions are known. . * X *. » So many stories have been afloat lately about Austro-German concentrations on the northern frontiers of the Balkan Peninsula that the latest addition to their number must be received with some reserve until it is confirmed or discredited. It is a message from Eomo which states that 200,000 Germans have assembled in the neighbourhood of Brasso, near the Rumanian frontier. If this is true, it marks ■ a highly-interesting development, for Brasso is opposite the northern frontier of Rumania, about two hundred miles away from its junction with Servia. Fogaraa, where some of tho German troops are said to be posted, is about thirty miles west of Brasso. The latter, place is on a main.. railway which runs south from Hungary through Rumania and Bulgaria to Constantinople, bufc' Fogaraß is on a branch line running .parallel with the Rumanian frontier. Such a disposition of German troops as is described would imply an intention of hostile action against Rumania,' or at the least of guarding against aggression by that country. There would be no object in arraying troops along the frontier if Germany counted upon Rumanian friendship to aid or acquiesco in the Balkan enterprise she is said to contemplate, and, in any case, if Rumania's friendship were assured it would be Germany's first business to deal with Servia. The whole story of. the German concentration: on the "'Rumanian frontire awaits confirmation, but meantime it is borne out to some extent by. the statement of the Vossiche Zeiiimg (mentioned yesterday) that Germany, expects tho , Rumanian sphinx to show its claws at the. beginning of this month. ■ . ' . *. * * .* . There is little .official news of the Eastern campaign at time of writing, and available details show no ; very material change in the general situation.' An unofficial message speaks of a furious_ battle along .the whole northern section of the front, opposite East Prussia and further north, but gives no indication of the ■result. **. * * i A Berlin message dealing with the situation in large and general terms deserves to bo placed in a. class apart. In its bold sweep it leaves any known or probable achievement of the German armies far behind. From talk. of driving into tho "fleeing Russian: armies," it goes on to explain that the aim is to surround the smaller units. These initial difficulties overoome (that they are not overcome yet is a mero detail) it is hoped to capture hundreds of thousands, instead of thousands. After this it is ho surprise to be told that it is, _too_ early yet to say; whether the objective of tho next thief. offensive will bo Petrogi'ad or Odessa." The Eastern campaign does not lack its tragic aspects, but it must be _ admitted that the author .of this Gorman effort has succeeded in investing it with an clement of comic relief. .The inspiration of his outpouring is ; to be sought, of course, not in the fortunes of, the Eastern campaign, but in the deeply-felt necessity of stimulating other enterprises than _ those of'direct, military aggression, in the Balkans and elsewhere. ../■. *'• * * » . . - In spite of the absence of official news of the Dardanelles. campaign it may be'inferred .from occasional fragments of Turkish reports that heavy fighting is in progress on the Gallipoli: Peninsula./ A .typical sample to-day . declares that an "Allied attack at Suvla Bay was completcly repulsed, and then goes on to speak of several trenches being regained. As they oould. not be regained without being first lost, reports of this ' character justify a hope that the Allies will presently bo able to report having made further progress in the campaign. * * * ■ A somewhat unconvincing alarm' is sounded by. a Times correspondent who suggests a danger that Switzer-.. land may bo led to abandon the neutrality she has hitherto studiously observed, and afford the Germans a new passage into, France. The answer to these speculations seems to be contained in the message which sets them forth. It is stated that Switzerland certainly does not want war, but it is suggested that the. German agents who are active in, Switzerland and in most other neutral countries at the present time, may. succeed in inducing the Swiss to change their attitude by persuading them that the; Allies arc bent., upon starving th 6 Swiss industries, by blocking imports.. This should be_ an imaginary danger.' Steps are being taken to form a trust in Switzerland, on fclie.lines !pf the corporation established somo 'time ago in Holland, to furnish a guarantee that imports shall not reaoh an enemy destination. Granted a free flow of supplies under these conditions, Switzerland is hai-dly likely to succumb to German guile.