PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2547, 23 August 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

The best news to-day, if it is true, is the announcement that Italy has declared war on Turkey. At time of writing there is only a report from. Constantinople to this effect to go upon. There is no particular reason to doubt its accuracy since the two countries have been on the verge of wai- for some time past, but a definite statement by the Italian Government is needed to put tie fact beyond doubt. The news is good, if true, because it means a very important increase directly, and probably indirectly also, in the pressure bearing upon Turkey. An Italian declaration of war would most likely bo followed by the immediate dispatch of an expedition-, ary force to Asia Minor, or whatever other destination the Allies in their concerted dispositions may agree upon. Minor would be the natural objcctivo of an Italian invasion, because Italy .has ambitions of territorial aggrandisement in that region, justified on the ground that people of Italian nationality are suffering under Turkish misrule. Italy should bo able to detail a military force—possibly not a very strong one as forccs go now —against Turkey, and also to supplement to some extent the nayaj force at the command of the Allies in tho Eastern Mediterranean. The direct results of her action would thus have a material bearing upon the Dardanelles campaign and.bring tho day perceptibly nearer when Russia will be able to obtain a free flow of military supplies and to export the groin and. other foodstuffs for which a keen demand exists in Western Europe.

In addition to the direct value of a considerable additional forec thrown into the scale _ against key, Italian intervention, assuming that it has been decided upon, will be likely to exert an influence upon the progress of ovents in the Balkan Peninsula. Italian interests and those of the Balkan States touch at various points. In particular Greece, like Turkey, is ambitious of acquiring territory in Asia Minor, and there aro more or less conflicting Greek and Italian claims to bo settled where some of the Turkish Aegean islands_ arc concerned. It is hardly likely, in the circumstances, that Greece will be content to stand jdly b.y while Italy proceeds to assert lior claims to fttrkUb territory bx tow w wins, Nothing in

could be better calculated to induce Greece to compose lior differences with Bulgaria and take the field with Italy as an Ally. Tho most determined "opposition of King ConSTANTINE to the policy of enterprise advocated by M. Venezelos might bo expected to break down in the presence of such a national opportunity as Italian intervention would afford to Greece, more especially as theiopportunity could not be expected to recur. Assuming that the triumphant return of M. A r ENEZELOs with a two-to-one majority truly reflects the state of public opinion in Greece, a Graeco-Bulgarian understanding should be possible," even in the absence of tho stimulus which Italian intervention against Turkey would afford. The Bulgarian Prime Minister has stated that his country will go to war on behalf of its neighbours and the Entente if it is given tho Macedonian territory now held by Greeco and Servia. M, Venezelos has advocated this concession and further that Greece, if necessary, should transfer tho Aegean port of Kavala to Bulgaria. With matters in this state, and assuming, as is probable, that her Allies have already brought pressure to bear upon Servia to. induce her to agree to her _ share of the concession to Bulgaria, a declaration of war by Italy on Turkey might possibly bring more than one additional enemy into the field against that country.

In tho German reports of the fall of Novo Georgvieslc there is evidence of a desire to make the most of tho event in impressing public opinion in Germany, and perhaps in neutral countries also. Tho place is ornately described as "the enemy's last bulwark in Poland," which it is not. and as in tlie case of Kovno, and with even less probability, it is reported that an enormous stock of war material was captured. In order to accept this story in its latest setting it would be necessary to believe that the ..Russians deliberately throw away _ the enormous stock of war material referred to, for when they left Novo Georgviesk gayrisoneel they knew quite well that'the place could not be very lon<* defended and that there was no question of its being relieved. However, making tho necessary allowance for exaggeration, the Germans are chronicling a real success and one of no slight importance. Tho garrison of Novo Georgviesk was left behind in the great Russian retreat and has stoutly fought a delaying battle, as it was intended to do. Now that the fortress has fallen two great highways of heavy transport are laid open to the Germans which have hitherto been closed! These aire the rivers Vistula and Bug. The smaller river of the two, the Bug, is in this connection tha most important since it provides the Germans witlh fairly convenient access to Central Poland,'and so into areas which the Russians are still stubbornly defending. The Bug, for instance, 'flows within a .few miles of the fortress of Brest Litowsk (120 miles east of Warsaw) upon which enemy columns have lately been advancing from north-west, west, and south. * * * «

_ Considering how greatly the enemy is handicapped in his advance by the infrequency of railways in Poland and the damage done to existing lines by the retreating Russians, complete possession of a water highway extending from Prussia into Central Poland, is calculated to materially facilitate his further ' operations. Such a highway the Vistula and tho Bug afford between them. The fall of Novo'Georgviesk must, therefore, be placed with events likely to lead up to a further extension of the Gorman invasion. At about the time of the ovacuation of Warsaw it was stated by some correspondents at Petrograd that the Russians would be unlikely to retreat further than to the Nie-men-Bug line, that is to say,. a line extending almost duo south from Kovno, fifty miles east, of the East Prussian frontier in its northern section, and 120 miles east of Warsaw further soutL Although the Russians are still fighting in some places considerably to the westward of this line, their failure to arrest the enemy at Kovno and bis continued progress in Central Poland, make it fairly evident that a further "retreat is in prospect.

Feoh-this point of view, the immedia»fce outlook is unpromising, but the broad features of the campaign are not altered as this or that detail advantage passes into the hands of the Germans. The essential fact to' bear in mind is that it is the accepted policy of the Russians, until such time as improved equipment enables them to turn upon tho enemy, to sacrifice as much territory as may be necessary to enable them to keop their armies intact. _ Ths is the ruling'consideration, and it must dominate all others; The line of tho Niemen and tho Bug may bo only a temporary stopping-place in the Russian retreat, but it does not follow that the enemy will be any nearer to achieving tho decisive victory ho is striving so desperately to gain. A somewhat different view is expressed by The Times military correspondent (Colonel Repington). He says that tho whole situation in tho Eastern campaign is grave, and that events in the next ten days should Ic decisive. There is no visible evidence on which to found such a conclusion, and it is just as well to remember that Colonel Repington' is writing for one of a group of newspapers which are conducting a persistent agitation in favour of compulsory military service. Leaving the merits of th'is agitation aside, those who arc pressing it have unquestionably made free use of some arguments not very dissimilar from those put forward by Germany in tho political campaign she has set on foot in the hope of creating dissension between tho nations leagued against her in tho war. Opinions may differ as to whether it is, wiso -to attempt to bolster up the caso for compulsory enlistment by dissem'inating lugubrious opinions a,nd predictions as to the position and prospects of the Entente Powers in tho war, but in any case these opinions and predictions must be set aside if a true View of the facts is desired. .

« * ■ * * On the facts as they appear, -the Russian armies are in no danger of decisive defeat. The Germans are in a fair way to enlarge their area of occupation in Russia, but they will gain the victory they seek and resultant freedom _ to concentrate against their lemaining enemies only if llussia decides to give up the struggle. Political rather than military questions ai\> thus opened up, and all that need bo said on the subject here is that no indication has been given of any such weakening on .tho part of the Russian nation as must precede a decisive German success. On the contrary, much evidence has been afforded that, tho whole nation is unitsd in <1 resolve to continue thq struggle to tko cud

A report, noi> amplified at time of "writing, that a German squadron is closing in upon the Gulf of Riga is possibly the prelude to the capture of Riga. The Russians would be unlikely to station a squadron of any great strength in the Gulf since the attack of a, superior force would enclose their ships in a trap. It is to bo inferred from the brief report in hand that Russian and British submarines have been unable 'to block a Gorman naval attack in force, but they should bo able to very seriously hamper the sea transport of men and munitions, for which tho enemy's naval enterprise is presumably intended to pavo the way.

Mystery still enshrouds the preparations of the Allies in tho Western theatre, but it is a fact to be remembered that the continued exertions of the enemy on the opposite front afford them an. opportunity which becomes greater as his invasion of Russia proceeds. An expectation that the Germans would stay their advance on the line of tho Vistula was not based upon any belief that they were incapable of carrying the invasion further, but upon an assumption that they would take up a defensive stand there in order to release forces to act in France and Flanders, and possibly also against Italy. The expectation has been falsified, but ' the considerations upon which it was based have in no way lost their force. Thanks to the fashion in whioh Russia has for months monopolised so great a share of tho enemy's attention, the Western Allies have had such a period for preparing their offensive as they could not well have hoped for. As bearing on this matter, there is an interesting statement to-day by M. Millerand, the French, Minister for War. He states tha.t all that the French Government undertook in regard to munitions has been carried out, and that there is sufficient ammunition for the seventy : fives to meet all requirements. This is much more impressive than stories of wonderful new guns which will smite the enemy at a range of 25 miles, arid, taken in conjunction with what is known of the preparations made by Great Britain, affords . some ground for believing that the date of the grand offensive in the Western theatre may not now be' very far distant.

The attack made by a German destroyer upon the British submarine El 3, as she' lay helplessly aground upon a Danish island a.t the entrance to the Baltic, can only be regarded as an a-ct of war against the country whose territorial waters were thus illegally invaded. Whether Denmark is prepared to go to extremes in the matter is doubtful, but she has been made the object of a wanton insult which no strong Power would tolerate for a moment. So far as the incident has gone, the conduct of the Danish authorities appears to have been irreproachable. Finding the submarine aground they gave her the customary 24 hours' notice to depart, and pending the expiration of that interval three torpedo craft were told off to mount guard over her. It was in. the presenco of this Danish guard that a German destroyer discharged a torpedo at the stranded submarine and afterwards fired upon her and upon her crew as they wero escaping from a ship they could not hope to defend. The Danes acted with eommendablo spirit, one of their torpedoers steaming between the German destroyer and her victim and so cfampelling her to cease fire and withdraw. More is likely to be heard of this incipient, but meantime it is satisfactory to know that the resolute attitude of the Danes had its effect and that the submarine, though . damaged, is not a total loss. A report from Copenhagen states that there is a .possibility of her being salvaged, so that in ordinary course she will be taken off and interned in Denmark for the period of the war. About one half the members of her crew, unfortunately, were killed, or are not accounted for.