PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2542, 17 August 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Artillery duels and a, stir of fighting along the northern frontiers of Serbia have brought into notice again a war area of which very little has been heard for months past. Since the Serbs rallied so magnificently and expelled a greatly superior Austrian force which had invaded their territory, a state of virtual trucc has obtained on the AustroSerbian frontiers. The Serbs have perforce been inactive because they needed time to recruit their wasted rosouroes and organise a new array. The Austrians apparently found it necessary to leave their untameable little neighbours' alone during months in which, if forces had been available, they might profitably have retrieved the failure of their last invasion. _ Weeks ago some minor enterprises in Northern Albania' furnished indications of reviving energy on the part of the Serbs, and according to recent report's they have now. with some assistance from their Allies, placed a well-found army of nearly a quarter of a million men in the field. The fighting reported along the Rivers Save and Danube, which sot a barrier between Hungary and Serbia, is no more than might bo expected where two armies are watching one another across a hostile frontier. As yet no deoided aggression by cither party is reported, but it is likely that something of the kind will be heard of before long.

Even as it stands, the brief story of bombardments along the frontier line, and of tentative attempts by the Austrians to force the passage of the_ Danube, has suggestive points of interest. The principal scene of these activities appears to have beeu the middle of the northern frontier of the Balkan Peninsula, notably at and near the point where Hungary, Eumania, and Serbia meet. Somo of the details in the messages suggest that the Serbs may be occupying outlying'positions on the northern bank of the Danube'. Orsova, for instance, which the Austrians are said to have bombarded) is a Hungarian town standing, almost at the meeting point of Serbia, Rumania, and Hungary. It is worth noting also that Orsova is only 40 miles away from the northern extremity of Bulgaria. Of 'lato assurances have been,given that the latter country, if it does not join the Entente in the war, may be depended upon to observe neutrality, and it is just possible that the Austrians are in the early stages of an enterprise designed to induce Bulgaria to change its mind. .Most of the railways running south through the Balkan Peninsula to Turkey run through. Eumania before entering Bulgaria, so that the renewed aati.vitios of the Austrians against the Serbs and the locality in.which they have been set on foot, carry a distinct suggestion of knocking at the gate.

Apart from lato reports indicating that Bulgaria is to be depended upon, the prospects of an Austrian or Austro-German march through the Balkans to relieve tho Turks do not appear hopeful, nor is there any definite evidence as yet for assuming : that such a thing is likely to be attempted. Some recent unofficial messages have spoken of an AustroGerman concentration against tho Serbians with that object in view, but accounts of the fighting that has .ocourred within the last few days make no mention of- Gorman troops, and that only Austrians and Hungarians were engaged in such efforts as were made- to cross the Danube. It is fairly certain that Germany is less able now than she was months ago to spare troops for service in tho Balkans. The time to undertake a march to the- Dardanelles would have been when Serbia was in. a practically helpless state by reason of her past horoic efforts in the war, and when the Allied campaign in Gallipoli_ was at a very early stage. Austria, as the situation stands; must have her hands tolerably full, and is hardly likely to embark unassisted upon such an ambitious enterprise as the passage of the Balkans ■ * #' * * On tho whole, the -Dardanelles campaign is more likely to take a turn favourable to the Allies in the near future than to be complicated by new difficulties. Indeed, it is probable, that when events in actual progress are disclosed, tho campaign will be found to have materially advanced towards a successful termination. The Turks are undoubtedly making a brave resistance in-Gal-lipoli, but the circumstances might easily give rise to false ideas as to their resources and resisting power. Until an Allied force was landed not many days ago 'on the mainland north of Bulair, with results not yet known, the task thrown upon the Turks in their main campaign was that of defending a limited area and one of the greatest natural strongholds in the world, a narrow peninsula and a narrow waterway, the fortifications of which have been improved' in recent years' by firstclass military engineers. An army could not well have been set an easier task than to defend such a stronghold, but there is reason to believe that tho campaign has already gone far to exhaust the available resources of the Turks, Their army at the beginning of the war had a strength of about half a million men —possibly less—and at tho lowest estimate considerably upwards of 100,000 men, must have been incapacitated in £he defence of Gallipoli.

Takino casualties into account, tho campaign against the Russians in Trans-Caucasia cannot have/occupied and accounted for fewer than a hun'dred thousand Turkish soldiers. The actual total is almost certainly mnoh greater, and after a period of quiescence, tho Russians m this area are renewing the A smaller Turkish force is occupied in Mesopotamia, where a- little Anglo-Indian army has done and is doing good work. In addition, the Turks have extensive territories aud frontiers, including long -coast lines in bhe Black Sea and the Mediterranean, to garrison and guard. _ A mere cata.loguc of these responsibilities and the past progress of the various Ottoman campaigns, puts it beyond doubt that resources originally _ measured by an army of half a million men must by this time be seriously depleted. At the present moment, thanks to the succcssful operations of British submarines in thijir inner seas, the Turks must be_ desperately .put to it to maintain their communications with Gallipoli, and the Allied landing on tho mainland no doubt heralds a hsw and vigorous onaiu

make it'hard to meet It is probable also that Italy and Greece will seize the favourable opportunity now offering to assert their territorial claims in Asia Minor, and saddlo the Turks with a new invasion in that region. Some things are hidden by the veil drawn as yet over recent military events, but it is likely that when the veil lifts the "Sick Man of Europe" will be found perceptibly nearer to dissolution than when his case was last definitely diagnosed. Only an entire failure to retain an effective command over the Balkan situation would seriously jeopardiso the position from the Entente point of view, and each successful military step taken against Turkey makes that command easier to retain.

Dutch and Swiss reports to-day again speak of German troops being sent to the Serbian frontier, but these stories lack confirmation in reports direct from the scene of action. Other references to th<J Balkan situation are encouraging. Reports of friction between Serbia and Greece over territorial concessions to Bulgaria are attributed to a German source, and it is also a good sign that difficulties appear to have arisen over the German loan to Bulgaria, and that negotiations between the latter country and Turkey over the control of the Adrianople-Dedea-gatch railway, have been broken off.

The trend of events on the Western front is still more or less obscure, and no new development of importance is reported at time of writing. A very interesting account of tho successful attack recently made by the British at Hooge, near Ypres, indicates that it was an object lesson in what may be accomplished by a well-organised force am* ply provided with artillery and other means of offence. Tho- position wrested from tho Germans was ono of great strength, but the British artillery and troops made light of it. The report mentioned lays emphasis upon the splendid spirit of gallantry animating the British troops, a factor somewhat apt to bo overlooked at present on account of the prominence given to the importance of artillery and munitions, but one that has oxcrciscd, and is bound to exorcise, a vastly important influence in tho war. . t '* * * e While tho world is waiting for tho Western offensive of the Allies it is good to hear, as is stated to-day, that the danger of a premature move ou the Western front is clearly recognised in Russia, where, if anywhere, some impatience on the subject might be harboured. It is to be supposed that this assurance from Russia originates with those who have a knowledge of the plans of the Allies not accessible.to the general public, and its publication in a leading E iisfian newspaper, the Novae Vremya, may fairly be accepted as an indication that tho Allies are working in ccnccrt on a settled plan and have no reason to be dissatisfied with the position reached. ■

A German communique dealing with somo detail events in Ihc Eastern campaign is in most respects not materially at variance with the messages published yesterday which described the situation very fully. A local victory in the Baltic Provinces is claimed by the Germans, but it is chiefly in the area between the Vistula and the Bug, where the Russians are methodically pursuing their retreat, that extensive gains of ground are chronicled. As to other areas even this enemy report emphasises a stubborn Russian resistance. In regard to Kovno it is stated that "our troops are drawing nearer to the fortress," but no progress is claimed in the siege of Novo Georgviesk, the fortress on the Vistula no/th-west of Warsaw, in which tho Russians left a garrison when they retreated. * # # * News from Pctrograd shows that the Germans are still' pressing their eastward advance from tho Baltic Provinces towards the Petrograd railway, but otherwise indicates that the Russians are holding l their own save where they are slowly retreating to their new lino. * * * * There is good news : jn the announcement (made unofficially as yet) that Britain and Franco have decided to declare cotton contraband, and that the deoision has beon taken in good part in-Washington. The implication is that much more drastic steps are to be taken to prevent supplies of cotton reaohing Germany through neutral countries. No doubt Germany has accumulated a considerable stock of this essential ingredient in explosives, Jjut an absolute blockade of further supplies may yet shorten the'war.